全球通訊市場回顧（2012年）：市場事件及預測

全球通訊市場回顧（2012年）：市場事件及預測 是由出版商The Insight Research Corporation在2012年01月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金1195起跳。

簡介

進入2012年，全球金融市場仍呈現不穩定之情形，歐洲也持續嚴重通膨。即使目前為1930年大恐慌起最大之經濟不景氣，持續影響短期投資判斷，但似乎仍有機會逃脫最遭之狀況。在此不透明之經濟環境下，通訊仍為促進成長之重要因素。通訊為推動社會經濟發展之重要角色，與水跟能源相同，為經濟發展不可缺乏之公用事業。本事業將反應出全球產出、家庭支出等比率之增加。

本報告為，匯整全球通訊市場回顧中，無線高速存取、光纖網路、VoIP（IP電話）、有線電話、家用及商用通訊趨勢、IP類應用等新機會之最新資訊、2016年止5年預測等，以下摘列摘要形式闡述。

第1章 實施概要

第2章 背景：各通訊產業市場

• 通訊市場情形
  • 有線市場之趨勢
  • 寬頻市場之趨勢
• 無線網路産業市場
  • 無線網路行動技術間之不同
  • 無線網路市場之趨勢
• 有線產業市場
  • 有線產業發展
  • IP有線電話
  • 美國有線用戶之増加

第3章 下一代通訊網路：基礎設施之改良

• 網路拓撲之概要
  • 用戶
  • 存取網路
  • 城市網路
  • 核心網路
• 傳輸之改善
• 交換技術概要
  • 迴路交換及封包交換
• 大眾交換電話網路（PSTN）
  • PSTN之發展
  • PSTN之變化？
  • 電信局
• 數據網路及VoIP（IP電話）
  • 寬頻交換器
  • 數據核心網路
  • 數據城市網路
  • 數據存取網路
  • 數據網路之信號及支援結構
  • 寬頻電話（VoIP）
  • 傳輸用VoIP
  • 使用VoIP之優點
  • 附加價值之VoIP
• 營運商乙太網路
  • E-line
  • E-LAN
  • 其他拓撲：專用vs交換
  • 營運商乙太網路市場之預測
• 下一代網路
  • 閘道
  • 軟開關
  • 服務交換平台
  • IP多媒體系統
• 光網路
  • 基本光纖傳輸技術
  • 光纖傳輸技術之概要
  • 基本光纖傳輸技術目前之差距
  • 光纖傳輸技術之混合方式
  • 光纖設備市場之収益預測
  • 波長服務市場趨勢
• 基礎設施之資本投資
  • WiMAX及LTE
  • 寬頻及NGN（下一代網路）
  • 行動終端及智慧手機
  • 通訊營運商之資本資出預測

第4章 存取網路：窄頻及寬頻

• 窄頻：美國有線之減少
• 寬頻存取網路
  • 寬頻存取之預測
• 存取網路技術之選項
  • DSL
  • 有線
  • 銅線
  • 光纖
  • 無線網路
  • FMC（固定及行動之整合）
  • WiFi
  • WiMAX

第5章 基礎設施之支援：OSS、BSS及外包

• 營運商支援系統（OSS）之概要
• 營運商支援應用
  • 商業營運商支援
  • 網路營運商支援
  • 網路管理
• OSS市場之銷售預測
• 外包
  • 供應商之摘要
  • 外包服務市場
• 世界通訊機器市場支出
• 開放式軟體對OSS之影響
  • 智慧財產權問題
  • 開放式軟體之優點
  • 開放式軟體計畫挑戰
  • 開放式支援：商用授權
  • 開放式市場及銷售預測

第6章 目前及未來之通訊服務市場

• IP類應用服務
  • 簡介及定義
  • 非入門之VoIP
  • 主要IP服務趨勢
  • IP服務市場預測
• IP服務之未來：Web 2.0
  • Web 2.0之混合
  • Web 2.0及營運商
  • Web 2.0之市場預測
• IP服務之未來：混合
  • 調查結果
  • 混合對通訊事業者之作用為？
  • 混合市場預測
• 環境改善中通訊之作用
  • 將綠色之優勢模式化
• 行動電話及金融應用
  • 核心銀行解決方案及行動電話
  • 行動電話用金融應用
  • 行動電話用金融應用之收益機會
• 通訊之未來
  • 改變所有IP
  • 收斂極為重要
  • 營運商發展
  • OEM發展

第7章 企業通訊市場

• 規模別商業分類
• 專用回線
• 管理服務及企業
• 產業別通訊服務支出
• 行動勞動力及企業應用
• 企業統一通信
• 參與企業服務領域之美國有線營運商
• 小型企業之代管語音服務

圖表

目錄

Abstract

The 2012 Telecom Industry Review summarizes current conditions across the global telecommunications industry, providing analysis of over a dozen infrastructure and service segments. From fundamental background issues to detailed five-year forecasts accompanied by practical strategic advice, this study provides a sweeping examination of the telecom marketplace.

The Review provides up-to-date information in such key areas as wireless high-speed access, optical networking, VoIP, cable telephony, residential and business communications trends, and new opportunities such as various IP-based applications delivered as services as well as device-independent IPTV.

Whether you are an industry veteran or new to telecom, the 2012 Telecom Industry Review will serve as a frequently referenced yearbook, supplying hard data and sound analysis on pressing service and equipment issues. Concise, clear, and current, the review is a detailed strategic tool that amasses a year's worth of telecom research - over a dozen segments - into one comprehensive resource.

Report Excerpt

Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions

At the beginning of 2012, global financial markets remain unsteady, with European currency still under attack. Although there are signs that the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s will continue to drive investment decisions in the near term, the worst of the turmoil may soon be behind us. The sharp drop in credit markets worldwide was directly tied to problems in the US mortgage industry, which ground to a halt during 2008. Because US business and private investors got too complacent about risk, the amount of mortgages that were sold by banks to investment banks and then sold as US mortgage-related securities to investors grew from approximately $67 billion in 1996 to $773 billion in 2006. This is one of the key reasons that set off the lending crisis and created serious concern about the health of the global economy. Another precipitating factor in the credit squeeze was the legalization of credit default swaps in 2000 which allowed investors to “bet” that the mortgage market would fail.

In October of 2008, it was necessary for the Federal government to introduce a $700 billion bailout plan for the economy so that things would not worsen, and other governments followed suit with their own plans to spur lending. The use of deficit spending and other “pump priming” measures probably had a salutary effect and averted a global Depression on the order to the 1930s, but the world economic system at the beginning of 2012 continues to exhibit considerable signs of stress.

Even amidst so much economic uncertainty, the fact remains that telecommunications is a key input factor in economic growth. Telecommunications is a facilitator of socio-economic advancement and is a critical utility for economic development, much like water and energy. This fact is reflected in its growing share of world output and of household spending. By Insight's analysis, global telecommunications spending as share of global GDP has risen.....

Table of Contents

Chapter - I

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1.1. Telecommunications Industry Economic Conditions
• 1.2. Report Structure

Chapter - II

BACKGROUND: TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY MARKETS

• 2.1. Telecommunications Market Conditions
  • 2.1.1. Wireline Market Trends
  • 2.1.2. Broadband Market Trends
• 2.2. Wireless Industry Markets
  • 2.2.1. Differences Between Wireless Mobile Technologies
  • 2.2.2. Wireless Market Trends
• 2.3. Cable Industry Markets
  • 2.3.1. Cable Industry Evolution
  • 2.3.2. IP Cable Telephony
  • 2.3.3. US Cable Subscriber Growth

Chapter - III

THE NEXT-GENERATION COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK: IMPROVEMENTS TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE

• 3.1. Overview of Network Topology
  • 3.1.1. End-Users
  • 3.1.2. Access Networks
  • 3.1.3. Metro Networks
  • 3.1.4. Core Networks
• 3.2. Transmission Improvements
• 3.3. Overview of Switching Technologies
  • 3.3.1. Circuit Switching vs. Packet Switching
• 3.4. The Public Switched Telephone Network
  • 3.4.1. Evolution of the PSTN
  • 3.4.2. Changes to the PSTN?
  • 3.4.3. Central Offices
• 3.5. Data Networks and VoIP
  • 3.5.1. Broadband Switches
  • 3.5.2. Data Core Networks
  • 3.5.3. Data Metro Networks
  • 3.5.4. Data Access Networks
  • 3.5.5. Signaling and Support Structures for Data Networks
  • 3.5.6. Voice over Internet Protocol
  • 3.5.7. VoIP as Transport
  • 3.5.8. VoIP Operational Advantage
  • 3.5.9. VoIP as Value-Added Stage
• 3.6. Carrier Ethernet Networks
  • 3.6.1. E-line
  • 3.6.2. E-LAN
  • 3.6.3. Other Typologies: Dedicated vs. Switched
  • 3.6.4. Carrier Ethernet Market Forecast
• 3.7. The Next Generation Network
  • 3.7.1. Gateways
  • 3.7.2. Softswitches
  • 3.7.3. Service Delivery Platforms
  • 3.7.4. IP Multimedia Subsystems
• 3.8. Optical Networking
  • 3.8.1. Baseline Optical Transport Technologies
  • 3.8.2. Optical Transport Technology Overview
  • 3.8.3. Current Gaps in Baseline Transport Technologies
  • 3.8.4. The Hybrid Approach to Optical Transport Technologies
  • 3.8.5. Optical Equipment Market Revenue Estimates
  • 3.8.6. Wavelength Service Market Trends
• 3.9. Capital Investments in the Infrastructure
  • 3.9.1. WiMAX and LTE
  • 3.9.2. Broadband and NGNs
  • 3.9.3. Mobile Handsets and Smartphones
  • 3.9.4. Forecast of Telecommunications Operators' Capital Spending
  • 3.9.3. Mobile Handsets and Smartphones
  • 3.9.4. Forecast of Telecommunications Operators' Capital Spending

Chapter - IV

THE ACCESS NETWORK: NARROWBAND AND BROADBAND

• 4.1. Narrowband: The Decline of US Landlines
• 4.2. Broadband Access Networks
  • 4.2.1. Broadband Access Forecasts
• 4.3. Access Network Technology Options
  • 4.3.1. DSL
  • 4.3.2. Cable
  • 4.3.3. Bonded Copper
  • 4.3.4. Fiber
  • 4.3.5. Wireless
  • 4.3.6. Fixed Mobile Convergence
  • 4.3.7. WiFi
  • 4.3.8. WiMAX

Chapter - V

SUPPORTING THE INFRASTRUCTURE: OSSES, BSSES, AND OUTSOURCING

• 5.1. Operations Support Systems Overview
• 5.2. Operations Support Applications
  • 5.2.1. Business Operations Support
  • 5.2.2. Network Operations Support
  • 5.2.3. Network Management
• 5.3. OSS Market Revenue Estimates
• 5.4. Outsourcing
  • 5.4.1. Vendor Activity Summary
  • 5.4.2. The Market for Outsourcing Services
• 5.5. Spending in Global Telecom Equipment Markets
• 5.6. The Impacts of Open Source Software on OSSes
  • 5.6.1. The Question of Intellectual Property
  • 5.6.2. Open Source Software Benefits
  • 5.6.3. Open Source Software Project Challenges
  • 5.6.4. Open Source Support: The Commercial License
  • 5.6.5. Open Source Markets and Revenue Estimates

Chapter - VI

PRESENT AND FUTURE COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES MARKETS

• 6.1. IP-Based Application Services
  • 6.1.1. Introduction & Definitions
  • 6.1.2. VoIP as a Non-Starter
  • 6.1.3. Key IP Service Trends
  • 6.1.4 I P Services Market Forecast
• 6.2. The Future of IP Services: Web 2.0
  • 6.2.1. Web 2.0 and Mashups
  • 6.2.2. Web 2.0 & the Carriers
  • 6.2.3. Web 2.0 Market Forecast
• 6.3. The Future of IP Services: Mashups
  • 6.3.1. What We Found
  • 6.3.2. What Role for Telcos in Mashups?
  • 6.3.3. Mashup Market Forecast 256
• 6.4. Telecommunications Role in Improving the Environment
  • 6.4.1. Modeling the Benefits of Green
• 6.5. Mobile Phones and Financial Applications
  • 6.5.1. Core Banking Solutions and Mobile Phones
  • 6.5.2. Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
  • 6.5.3. Revenue Potential of Financial Applications for Mobile Phones
• 6.6. The Future of Telecommunications
  • 6.6.1. IP Changes Everything
  • 6.6.2. Convergence Cuts Both Ways
  • 6.6.3. The Road Ahead for Operators
  • 6.6.4. The Road Ahead for OEMs

Chapter - VII

ENTERPRISE TELECOMMUNICATIONS MARKETS

• 7.1. The Classification of Businesses by Size
  • 7.1.1. Distribution of Business by Size
  • 7.1.2. The Business Line Market Methodology and Analysis
  • 7.1.3. The Business Line Market in Small Enterprises
• 7.2. Private Lines
  • 7.2.1. Evolution in the Private Line Services Market
  • 7.2.2. Circuit Types
  • 7.2.3. SONET, IP and Private Lines
  • 7.2.4. Private Line Circuit Layout
  • 7.2.5. Redundancy & Restoration
  • 7.2.6. Private Line Alternatives
  • 7.2.7. Private Line Services Market Forecast
• 7.3. Managed Services & the Enterprise
  • 7.3.1. Why Managed Services?
  • 7.3.2. Industry Structure
  • 7.3.3. Managed Service Industry Forecast
• 7.4. Vertical Industry Spending on Telecommunications Services
  • 7.4.1. Telecommunications and Vertical Marketing
  • 7.4.2. Healthcare as a Fast Growing Vertical Industry
• 7.5. The Mobile Workforce and Enterprise Applications
  • 7.5.1. The Key Enterprise Mobility Applications
  • 7.5.2. Mobile Enterprise Market Forecasts
• 7.6. Enterprise Unified Communications
  • 7.6.1. Defining Unified Communications
  • 7.6.2. The Benefits of Unified Communications
  • 7.6.3. Unified Communications: Dedicated versus Hosted
  • 7.6.4 The Stakeholders
  • 7.6.5. Unified Communications Markets and Revenue
• 7.7. The CATV MSOs' Push into the Enterprise
  • 7.7.1. CableCos Well Positioned to Compete in Enterprise Markets
  • 7.7.2. Deploying Commercial Services
  • 7.7.3. Market Forecast
• 7.8. Hosted Voice Services in the Small Enterprise
  • 7.8.1. Market Forecast for Hosted PBX/VoIP Services

Table of Figures

Chapter - I

• I-1. Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2012-2017

Chapter - II

• II-1. Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
• II-2. North American Broadband Wireline Revenue by Market Segment
• II-3. EMEA Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2012-2017
• II-4. Asia Pacific Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2012-2017
• II-5. LAC Broadband Wireline Revenue, 2012-2017
• II-6. Impact of New Wireless Data Service Usage on Ave. Rev. per User
• II-7. Circuit Switched with Hybrid IP Network Architecture
• II-8. Cable IP Telephony
• II-9. Basic DOCSIS
• II-10. Basic PacketCable Architecture

Chapter - III

• III-1. Public Communication Network Architecture
• III-2. SONET Ring Configuration
• III-3. Hierarchy of Broadband Switch Functions
• III-4. Typical National Data Core Network
• III-5. E-Line Point-to-Point Service Type
• III-6. E-LAN Multipoint-to-Multipoint Service Type
• III-7. Worldwide Gateway Revenue Forecast, 2008-2013
• III-8. Softswitch Architecture Diagram
• III-9. Circuit vs. Packet Switching of Internet Traffic
• III-10. SDP Service Provider Network Architecture
• III-11. STS-1 Frame Structure
• III-12. STM-1 Frame Structure
• III-13. Four-Channel DWDM System
• III-14. Schematic of an MPLS Network
• III-15. Label Header Structure
• III-16. MPLS over WDM Core
• III-17. Worldwide Optical Equipment Sales
• III-18. Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
• III-19. Managed Wavelength Service Evolution Path

Chapter - IV

• IV-1. Landline Telephone Penetration Percentage US
• IV-2. Historical Landline vs. Wireless Penetrations
• IV-3. Total US Wireless Subscribership Growth, 1997-2010
• IV-4. US VoIP Households, 2007-2012
• IV-5. HFC Architecture Providing Video and Voice Services
• IV-6. Typical Backhaul Configuration
• IV-7. Typical DSLAM Backhaul Application
• IV-8. High Speed Data over Copper Service Provider Revenue
• IV-9. Revenue Distribution Wirelines vs. Wireless
• IV-10. Total US Wireless Subscribership Growth, 1997-2010
• IV-11. US Wireless Average Minutes Per Local Call
• IV-12. Revenue Split between Non-Voice and Voice Wireless Revenue
• IV-12. Phone Usage Habits, Women versus Men, January 2011
• IV-13. Monthly Voice and Text Usage by Age, January 2011
• IV-14. Cell Phone Penetration as a % of All Phone Subscribers, by Region
• IV-16. Wireline vs. Mobile Phone Growth 1988-2006
• IV-17. Common Fixed Mobile Convergence Scenarios
• IV-18. Total Worldwide FMC Carrier & Equipment Vendor Revenue 196

Chapter - V

• V-1. Operations Support Systems Dataflow
• V-2. Business Operations Systems Dataflow
• V-3. Total Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue
• V-4. Worldwide Telecom Open Source Market Revenue

Chapter - VI

• VI-1. Worldwide IP Services Market by Service Type
• VI-2. Web 2.0 Business Models
• VI-3. Global Opportunities for Web 2.0 Applied to Telecom
• VI-4. Logical Schematic of a Commercial Mashup
• VI-5. Global Mashup Revenue Opportunity for Telcos
• VI-6. Worldwide Green Communications Technologies Revenues
• VI-7. Global Total Revenue Opportunity for Mobile Financial Applications
• VI-8. Telecom Networking Before and After IP
• VI-9. Operator CAPEX in Select Markets, 2008-2015

Chapter - VII

• VII-1. Capacities of 64 Kbit/s, T1, and T3 Circuits
• VII-2. Typical Layout for a Full Circuit
• VII-3. ISDN Switched Backup
• VII-4. SONET Rings
• VII-5. Fiber-to-Fiber Redundancy
• VII-6. Cable-to-Cable Physical Redundancy (Diverse Cable Redundancy)
• VII-7. Total Private Line Revenue, 2011-2016
• VII-8. Managed Services Gross Margins
• VII-9. Global Managed Services Market by Region, 2011-2016
• VII-10. Drivers of Telecom Expenditures in Vertical Markets
• VII-11. Total US Telecom Wireline Market, 2010 and 2015
• VII-12. Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireline Services, 2010 and 2015
• VII-13. Total US Telecom Wireless Services, 2010 and 2015
• VII-14. Top-Tier Business Expenditures for Telecom Wireless Services
• VII-15. Total US Healthcare Telecom Service Revenues, 2009-2014
• VII-16. Global Market for Enterprise Mobility Solutions, 2011-2016
• VII-17. Breakdown of UC Market According to Implementation Methodologies
• VII-18. Total Global Market for All UC Segments
• VII-19. US MSO Commercial Service Revenues by Business Size
• VII-20. Forecasted Growth of Hosted PBX/VoIP Rev.in the Small Bus.Seg.

Table of Tables

Chapter - I

• I-1. Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Cat.

Chapter - II

• II-1. Global Carrier Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
• II-2. 2012 and 2017 Distribution of Global Carrier Revenue by Region
• II-3. Worldwide Service Provider Revenue by Service Type
• II-4. Global Wireless Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
• II-5. Global Wireline Revenue by Region, 2012-2017
• II-6. Regional Access Lines, 2012-2017
• II-7. Worldwide Telecom Revenue Forecast by Services Cat.
• II-8. Broadband Consumer Applications and Required Bandwidth
• II-9. Regional Wireless Subscribers, 2011-2016
• II-10. Regional Wireless Penetration by Population
• II-11. Wireless Data Technologies Comparison
• II-12. Revenue for 2G, 2.5G, and 3G Market Segments by Region
• II-13. DOCSIS Evolution: Service Comparison
• II-14. DOCSIS Evolution: Customer Equipment Supported
• II-15. DOCSIS Evolution: Upload/Download Speeds Supported

Chapter - III

• III-1. Definitions of Digital Private Line Services
• III-2. SONET Data Rates
• III-3. Distinctions between POTS and Data Networks
• III-4. Network Locations of Broadband Switches
• III-5. Downstream DSL Bit-rates vs. Reach
• III-6. Total Number of SS7 Queries for U.S. Access Line Calls
• III-7. Percent of Broadband Consumers Adopting VoIP, 2008-2013
• III-8. US VoIP Subscribers, 2004-2008
• III-9. US VoIP Segment Size and SIP Invite Transaction Growth, 2009-2014 74
• III-10. Characteristics of Ethernet Service Varieties
• III-11. Total US Public Ethernet Revenues, 2009-2016
• III-12. Gateway Definitions
• III-13. Softswitch Advantages/Disadvantages
• III-14. Economic Benefits of Softswitch Technology
• III-15. Strategies to Increase Network Service Margins
• III-16. Interrelationship between STM, STS, OC, and Gbit/s
• III-17. ITU's Laser Grid
• III-18. Worldwide Fiber Sales, 2008-2013
• III-19. Wavelength Market Segments
• III-20. Wavelength Services Revenue Totals, 2008-2013
• III-21. Operator CAPEX in Select Markets, 2008-2015

Chapter - IV

• IV-1. US Wireline End User Switched Access Lines
• IV-2. US Wireline Telephone Calls, 1999-2005
• IV-3. Broadband Communication Network Access Solutions
• IV-4. Worldwide Broadband Lines, 2011-2017
• IV-5. The Versions and Features of xDSL
• IV-6. Worldwide Wireline vs. Wireless Revenue Growth
• IV-7. Wireline Subscribers, 2012-2017
• IV-8. Regional Wireless Subscribers, 20128-2017
• IV-9. Consumer VoWLAN/Cellular Service Scenario:
• IV-10. Number of Consumer Broadband Lines with Wireless Home Networking,

Chapter - V

• V-1. OSS Definitions Summary
• V-2. Characteristics of Broadband Network Management
• V-3. Distinct Characteristics of Packet Broadband Network Management
• V-4. Total Worldwide OSS Sales Revenue by Region, 2011-2016
• V-5. Vendor Activity Summary
• V-6. Outsourced Services Market Estimate for Wireline and Wireless
• V-7. Global Telecommunications Equipment Market by Type
• V-8. Open Source Component Categories

Chapter - VI

• VI-1. Green Comm. Portfolio of Product Domains, Services and Apps

Chapter - VII

• VII-1. US Business Distribution: All Business Sizes
• VII-2. Business Establishments by Industry Sector and Business Size
• VII-3. Business Lines: Distribution by Industry Sector
• VII-4. Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size
• VII-5. Digital Services Hierarchy
• VII-6. SONET/Optical Carrier Hierarchy
• VII-7. Managed Services Segments
• VII-8. Managed Service Solutions by Business Size
• VII-9. Healthcare Market Segments
• VII-10. Healthcare Segment Dimensions and Trends
• VII-11. US Companies Ranked by Video Subscribers
• VII-12. US MSO Commercial Service Revenues by Business Size
• VII-13. Business Lines by Industry Sector and Business Size
• VII-14. ILECs & MSOs Operating Territories Covered

Press Release

預計2017年全球通信產業的收益將達到2兆7,000億美元規模

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