全球IT經濟展望：2008年第1四半期的全球經濟與IT市場概要

Abstract

This IDC study provides an analysis of global economic conditions and their impact on IT markets around the world. It answers such questions as:

• What is shaping the developments in the global economy in the opening months of 2008, and what impact will these drivers have on the outlook for the global economy and IT spending going forward?
• What will be the key drivers for a recovery in IT spending?
• Where are IT spending prospects the most promising, and where are they the weakest?

"The global economy is still faced with a variety of risk factors," said Anna Toncheva, economist at IDC. "Intensifying financial instability, inflation pressures, and global imbalances have led to increased synchronization of the business cycles between the United States and the rest of the world over 1Q08. When business cycles are closely tied together, macroeconomic shocks tend to spread faster from one area to another. And though the current housing and financial crisis in the United States seems comparable only to the mildest cases in world history, the compression on global economic activity will probably linger over the course of the next six to seven quarters and will inevitably discourage investment plans."

Table of Contents

• Table of Contents
• IDC Opinion
• In This Study
  • Methodology
• Situation Overview
  • Recession Imminent in the United States
  • Rising Synchronization of Regional Business Cycles Apparent in 1Q08
  • Increasing Interdependence Within the Emerging Economies
  • Inflationary Pressures Lurk Everywhere
  • Global IT Patterns Confirm a Deceleration of Demand in the United States
• Future Outlook
  • Forecast and Assumptions
  • Table: Worldwide IT Spending by Region, 2007-2012 ($M)
  • Table: Worldwide Real Gross Domestic Product Growth by Region, 2007-2012 (%)
  • Figure: Worldwide IT Spending Growth by Region, 2008-2012
  • Figure: Weights Used to Calculate Worldwide 2008-2012 Real Growth
    • The Balance of Macroeconomic Risks Is Tilted to the Downside
    • United States Drives Global Economic Slowdown in 2008, Lagged Effects Linger Throughout 2009
    • IT Spending Remains on Track with Expectations, but Economic Woes Are Starting to Have an Impact Across Regions
      • Worldwide
      • Central and Eastern Europe
      • Table: Central and Eastern Europe Macroeconomic Forecast Evolution by Country, 2008 (%)
      • Table: Central and Eastern Europe Gross Domestic Product and IT Spending Growth, 2008-2012 (%)
      • Middle East and Africa
      • Table: Middle East/Africa Macroeconomic Forecast Evolution by Country, 2008 (%)
      • Table: Middle East/Africa Gross Domestic Product and IT Spending Growth, 2008-2012 (%)
      • Latin America
      • Table: Latin America Macroeconomic Forecast Evolution by Country, 2008 (%)
      • Table: Latin America Gross Domestic Product and IT Spending Growth, 2008-2012 (%)
      • Asia/Pacific
      • Table: Asia/Pacific Macroeconomic Forecast Evolution by Country, 2008 (%)
      • Table: Asia/Pacific Gross Domestic Product and IT Spending Growth, 2008-2012 (%)
      • North America
      • Table: North America Macroeconomic Forecast Evolution by Country, 2008 (%)
      • Table: North America Gross Domestic Product and IT Spending Growth, 2008-2012 (%)
      • Western Europe
      • Table: Western Europe Macroeconomic Forecast Evolution by Country, 2008 (%)
      • Table: Western Europe Gross Domestic Product and IT Spending Growth, 2008-2012 (%)
    • Forecast Assumptions
    • Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide IT Market, 2008-2012
  • Market Context
  • Table: Worldwide IT Spending Growth by Region, 2007-2012: Comparison of 1Q08 and 4Q07 Forecasts (%)
• Essential Guidance
• Learn More
  • Related Research
  • Synopsis