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市場調查報告書

希臘的債務危機對歐洲的IT支出的影響評估

Assessing the Impact of the Greek Debt Crisis on IT Spend in Europe

出版商 IDC 商品編碼 337010
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 26 Pages
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希臘的債務危機對歐洲的IT支出的影響評估 Assessing the Impact of the Greek Debt Crisis on IT Spend in Europe
出版日期: 2015年07月22日 內容資訊: 英文 26 Pages
簡介

本報告提供西歐和希臘的資訊科技支出相關調查分析,假設兩種情況等系統性資訊。

IDC的見解

調查概要

  • 調查手法

概況

  • 兩種可能結果
    • 危機前的希臘IT支出

未來展望

  • 方案1:希臘對IT支出的改革結果
    • 對產業的影響
    • 對硬體設備的影響
    • 對軟體的影響
    • 對服務的影響
  • 方案2:潛在的Grexit (希臘脫離歐元區) 的影響
    • 對產業的影響
    • 對硬體設備的影響
    • 對軟體的影響
    • 對服務的影響
  • 預測與前提條件
    • 預測方案1 (希臘的改革)
    • 預測方案2 (Grexit)
  • 市場背景

主要的建議

  • 對供應商
  • 對終端用戶 - Grexit

參考資料

  • 相關調查
  • 摘要

圖表

目錄
Product Code: M06X

This study presents IDC's estimates for IT spending in Western Europe and Greece for two scenarios.

  • Scenario 1: Greece will proceed with the bailout terms and conditions laid out by its European counterparts and will keep the euro currency. Despite this agreement, the resulting drop in business confidence will mean a double-digit decline in IT spending in Greece in 2016, albeit at less accelerated rate than Scenario 2. Overall Western European IT spend will remain largely unaffected.
  • Scenario 2: Greece is not able to comply with the terms of the 3rd bailout and an exit from the Eurozone will materialize. As a result, IT spend in Greece will see a significant decline. European IT spend will be somewhat affected, but not enough to move current expected growth rates into negative territory.

"The first scenario, even if less than the second one, will strongly hit many Greek industry sectors," said Andrea Siviero, senior research analyst, IDC European Industry Solutions. "The public sector will be the most negatively impacted vertical market in terms of IT spending in the short term, due to the dramatic cut in public spending that will characterize the coming months. But the consumer and, as a consequence, retail sectors will also experience a very tough IT spending cut. Tourism and accommodation, a sector that accounts for almost 15% of the national GDP in Greece, is suffering from the uncertainty of recent months. Nevertheless last month's vicissitudes could attract foreign attention in the longer-term."

With respect to IDC's current forecast, the Grexit scenario is expected to reduce total Greek IT spending for 2015 by 15%, decreasing from $2.6 billion to $2.2 billion. IDC also estimates that a Greek exit from the common euro currency would see Greek IT spending spiral to an 18% decline in 2016. Looking ahead to 2019, the actual forecast predicts a very small decline for 2105-2019 Greek IT spending (-0.4%), while the probability of a Grexit would increase the size of the IT spending reduction to 25%. In terms of the cumulative negative impact, a potential Grexit would reduce Greek IT spend by $3.7 billion in the forecast period. Western European IT spending would also be negatively impacted, but in a more contained fashion with less than a percentage point decline in terms of overall growth for the revised 2016 forecast.

"While macroeconomic shocks such as a possible Grexit tend to affect most technology areas, and we believe that hardware spending in the country will see a stronger negative impact especially in the 2015-2017 timeframe, as recurring maintenance fees and multi-year contracts will protect software and services, at least to some extent", said Giorgio Nebuloni, associate research director, IDC European Infrastructure and Software.

"Tracking IT spend in Greece back to 2007 (its pre-crisis peak), we have already seen a one-third reduction of IT spending compared to 2015," said Tom Meyer, GVP of European IT Research. "The current situation leads IDC to forecast a further drop in IT spending for 2016 if Greece leaves the Eurozone, reaching an extent where we could see an overall reduction in annual IT spending between the peak in 2007 and 2016 of nearly 50% (or just under $2 billion). Despite this, we do expect the recent resilience in IT spend seen in the other European markets to sustain reasonable growth in either of the scenarios for the broader region through the course of the forecast period."

Table of Contents

IDC Opinion

In This Study

  • Methodology

Situation Overview

  • Two Possible Outcomes
    • IT Spending in Greece Prior to the Latest Crisis

Future Outlook

  • Scenario 1: Consequences of Greek Reform on IT Spending
    • Impact on Verticals
      • Public Sector
      • Banking and Insurance
      • Consumer
      • Retail
      • Manufacturing
      • Personal and Professional Services
      • Utilities
      • Travel and Transport
      • Telecommunications and Media
    • Impact on the Hardware Market
      • Server Market
    • Impact on the Software Market
    • Impact on the Services Market
  • Scenario 2: Implications of a Potential Grexit
    • Impact on Verticals
    • Impact on the Hardware Market
      • Server Market
    • Impact on the Software Market
    • Impact on the Services Market
  • Forecast and Assumptions
    • Forecast Scenario 1 (Greek Reform)
    • Forecast Scenario 2 (Grexit)
  • Market Context

Essential Guidance

  • Advice for Vendors
  • Advice for End Users - Grexit

Learn More

  • Related Research
  • Synopsis

List of Tables

  • Table: Greece IT Spending by Tech Category 2015-2019 ($M)
  • Table: Western European IT Spending by Tech Category 2015-2019 ($M)
  • Table: Top 3 Forecast Assumptions for Western European Vertical Markets IT Spending, 2015-2019
  • Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for Western European Vertical Markets IT Spending, 2014-2018
  • Table: Scenario 1: Greece IT Spending by Tech Category 2013-2019 ($M)
  • Table: Scenario 1: Western European IT Spending by Tech Category 2013-2019 ($M)
  • Table: Scenario 2: Greece IT Spending by Tech Category 2013-2019 ($M)
  • Table: Scenario 2: Western European IT Spending by Tech Category 2013-2019 ($M)

List of Figures

  • Figure: Greece IT Spending by Tech Category, 2007-2014 ($B)
  • Figure: Western Europe IT Spending by Tech Category, 2007-2014 ($B)
  • Figure: Scenario 1 (Greek Reform): Greece IT Spending by Tech Category, 2013-2019 ($B)
  • Figure: Scenario 1 (Greek Reform): Western Europe IT Spending by Tech Category, 2013-2019 ($B)
  • Figure: Short and Long-Term IT Spending Impact in Greece by Vertical Market in Scenario 1
  • Figure: Scenario 2 (Grexit): Greece IT Spending by Tech Category, 2013-2019 ($B)
  • Figure: Scenario 2 (Grexit): Western Europe IT Spending by Tech Category, 2013-2019 ($B)
  • Figure: IT Spending Scenarios in Greece
  • Figure: IT Spending Scenarios in Western Europe
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