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俄羅斯的ICT市場未來展望 (2015年第一季)

Russia ICT Market Outlook Q1 2015

出版商 IDC 商品編碼 326392
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 16 Pages
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俄羅斯的ICT市場未來展望 (2015年第一季) Russia ICT Market Outlook Q1 2015
出版日期: 2015年03月16日 內容資訊: 英文 16 Pages


本報告提供近幾年俄羅斯的經濟危機和國際政治緊張為國內ICT產業帶來的影響度 (以季度為基礎) 相關分析、尤其是匯率的大幅度降低 (2014年11∼12月) 對IT出貨收益造成影響,及俄羅斯政府的經濟危機對策及軟體、IT服務的進口替代政策概要及影響度、經濟制裁對以往客戶的影響度的項目調查、關於今後的ICT市場趨勢預測考察。



  • 經濟形勢的ICT需求的影響
    • 貨幣
    • 經濟成長率
    • 通貨膨脹
  • 政治形勢對ICT市場的影響
    • 烏克蘭
    • 西方各國的經濟制裁
      • 貿易禁止
      • 資本採購
      • 購買循環的歪斜
      • 俄羅斯的進口替代法案
  • ICT市場發展
    • 最新的市場趨勢的成果 (以季度為基礎)
    • 成長領域
    • 市場預測的前提條件


  • 統計資料的資訊來源
  • 相關調查
  • 摘要


  • 俄羅斯市場趨勢實際成果 (以季度為基礎):與前一期的預測比較
  • 市場預測的前提條件:各客戶市場區隔
  • 俄羅斯的IT市場 (以金額為準):最好的預測方案 (總計6年份)
  • 俄羅斯的IT市場 (以金額為準):中立性的預測方案 (總計6年份)
  • 俄羅斯的IT市場 (以金額為準):最壞的預測方案 (總計6年份)


  • 俄羅斯盧布/美金的匯率 (2015年1∼3月)
  • 俄羅斯的服務行業PMI (購買負責人景氣指標),2015年2月
  • 俄羅斯的每月通貨膨脹率 (2014∼2015年)
  • 俄羅斯的實際工資率的每月趨勢 (2014∼2015年)
Product Code: CEMA22458

This study analyzes the impact of economic crisis and international political tensions on the Russian ICT market in the first quarter of 2015.

Among other things, this report covers the impact on Q4 2014 IT shipments results of the dramatic currency devaluation of November and December 2014, the Russian Government's January 2015 economic crisis plan, new details on Ministry of Communications import substitution rules for the software and services sector, and initial customer feedback on the impact of sanctions.

Questions this document answers

  • What is the likely quantitative impact on ICT demand in Russia during 2015 and 2016?
  • What is IDC's current view on the impact by industry segment?
  • What have been the key changes to the operating environment in Russia?

"Since the 1990s, suppliers to Russia have had to deal with several periods of "crisis". However, market declines have always reversed quickly, and it became rather easy to take a stoic view of Russia's "volatility". The situation changed in 2014: the Russian economy, and subsequent IT demand, are now in what looks like a lengthy period of contraction. According to the latest IDC data, the overall IT market in Russia declined 16% in 2014 and an even more dramatic decline is forecast for 2015." - Vice President Robert Farish, IDC Russia/CIS.

Table of Contents

IDC Opinion

In This Study

  • The Impact of the State of the Economy on ICT Demand
    • Currency
    • Economic Growth
    • Inflation
  • The Impact of Politics on the ICT Market
    • Ukraine
    • Western Sanctions
      • Trade Bans
      • Financing
      • Distortion of Purchasing Cycles
      • Russian Import Substitution Legislation
  • ICT Market Developments
    • The Results of Q4 2014
    • Growth Areas
    • Forecast Assumptions

Learn More

  • Statistical Sources
  • References
  • Synopsis

List of Tables

  • Table: IDC Q4 2014 Results Compared with Forecasts Made in the Previous Quarter
  • Table: Forecast Assumptions by Customer Segment, 2015
  • Table: Russian IT Market (US$B) Best Case Scenario, 2013-2018
  • Table: Russian IT Market (US$B) Central Scenario, 2013-2018
  • Table: Russian IT Market (US$B) Worse Case Scenario, 2013-2018

List of Figures

  • Figure: Russian Ruble Versus U.S. Dollar, January-March 2015
  • Figure: Russia Services PMI, February 2015
  • Figure: Monthly Rate of Inflation in Russia, 2014-2015
  • Figure: Real Wages Monthly Trend in Russia, 2014-2015
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