With as much publicity as electric cars have garnered since Tesla's unveiling of its Model 3, there is no dearth of skeptics and
believers. This Wood Mackenzie report, published by GTM Research, looks at the Model 3 and what it could mean for the oil and power
sectors. It attempts to answer the big question: Is the Model 3 truly a disruptive force, signaling a possible electric car revolution?
This report provides detailed insight into the unveiling of Tesla's Model 3 and the broader implications of electric car saturation in
the U.S. transport sector. It assesses the impact electric vehicles will have on U.S. power and oil demand, delves into the supply
chain for key EV components, and provides an analysis on carbon emission reductions.
Base Case Sector Demand Impacts
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Key questions answered:
- Is the Model 3 an early signal of a possible electric car revolution and can it become a disruptive force?
- Is Tesla Model 3 really a mass market car?
- How does it compete with gasoline cars?
- What does the Model 3 mean for the larger U.S. electric car market and consequent implications for U.S. gasoline and power demand?
- Is electrifying transport the solution to meeting broader carbon reduction goals?
Table of Contents
- 2. Tesla Model 3 Features
- 3. Traditional Concerns Around Electric Cars: Model 3 Implications
- 4. Cost Comparison and Payback: Electric Vs Gasoline Cars
- 5. Model 3 Market Implications: What It Means for Overall U.S. Electric Car Saturation?
- 6. Potential Impacts on U.S. Gasoline Demand and Power Demand
- 7. Are Electric Cars a Solution to Carbon Reduction?
- 8. Electrifying Transport to Reduce CO2: Is California a Peek into the Future?
List of Figures
1. Executive Summary
- Electric Vehicles: the Long Road
2. Tesla Model 3 Features
3. Traditional Concerns Around Electric Cars: Model 3 Implications
- Model 3 Concerns
- Typical Charging Pattern of EV Fleet in San Diego, CA
- Registered Electric Vehicles vs Charge Points by State
- Current and Under Construction Superchargers
- Battery Pack Cost Projections
- Global Battery Cell Production vs the Gigafactory
- Total Battery Cost Breakdown
- Global Lithium Production (excl. U.S.)
- Global Lithium Identified Resources
- Historical and Projected Performance of Tesla Model S Battery
4. Cost Comparison and Payback: Electric Vs Gasoline Cars
- Deviations in EV vs. Gasoline Competitiveness: California
- Deviations in EV vs. Gasoline Competitiveness: South Carolina
- Deviations in EV vs. Gasoline Competitiveness: Oregon
- Real Savings Per Mile: Wyoming
- Real Savings Per Mile: Pennsylvania
- Summary of State Incentives
- Potential Lifetime Savings by State
- CAFE Fuel Efficiency Targets (Miles per Gallon)
- Range and Price: Tesla vs. Competitors
- Payback: Tesla Model 3 Base vs BMW 3 Series Base
- Payback: Tesla Model 3 Loaded vs BMW 3 Series Loaded
- Payback: Tesla Model 3 Base vs Toyota Camry Base
- Payback: Tesla Model 3 Loaded vs Toyota Camry Loaded
- Payback: Tesla Model 3 Base vs Toyota Camry Loaded
5. Model 3 Market Implications: What It means for Overall U.S. Electric Car Saturation?
- U.S. Large Luxury Market Share by Vehicle
- Consumer Preference Comparison
- Tesla Annual Vehicle Production 2012-2020
- U.S. Total Model 3 Penetration
- U.S. Light Duty Vehicle Sales in 2015
6. Potential Impacts on U.S. gasoline Demand and Power Demand
- Base Case Sector Demand Impacts
- EV Impact on Power and Oil Markets
- EV Penetration of Light Vehicle Stock
- EV Impact on U.S. Oil Demand (Total Gasoline Demand)
- EV Impact on U.S. Oil Demand (Delta Impact from Base Case)
- EV Impact on U.S. Power Demand (Total Electric Sales)
- EV Impact on U.S. Power Demand (Delta Impact from Base Case)
- U.S. Power Market Reserve Margins (Current and Expected)
7. Are Electric Cars a Solution to Carbon Reduction?
- CO2 per Mile Comparison: EVs vs Gasoline
- CO2 Emissions in Texas (ERCOT)
- Lbs per CO2 in California (CAISO)
8. Electrifying Transport to Reduce CO2: Is California a Peek Into the Future?
- California GHG Targets
- Increase in Power Demand from EVs over BAU