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市場調查報告書
多晶矽市場（2012-2016年）：供給、需求以及對全球PV產業的影響
Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications for the Global PV Industry
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多晶矽市場（2012-2016年）：供給、需求以及對全球PV產業的影響 是由出版商Greentech Media Inc.在2012年01月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金2995起跳。
全球的Polysilicon（多晶矽）產業由於預料2011年的原材料價格大幅下滑將持續至2013年，預期今後2年間將進行大規模的市場淘汰。新加入市場的企業的生產能力、與既有供應商隨近年PV（太陽電池）需求熱潮而進行所制定的擴展計畫，預期2013年的多晶矽生產能力將會是2010年水準的兩倍。而伴隨逐漸減少的PV需求，此供給過剩的狀態，已經在業界領導者與生存下來的一群新參與企業之間，開始產生在生產規模、成本結構上的差異。
本報告，提出全球的Polysilicon（多晶矽）市場，彙整業界的技術、策略以及經濟發展藍圖的綜合分析，提示至2016年的生產以及價格/利潤率的預測，分析業界的競爭情勢，並提示多晶矽生產業者的生存策略等，由下列摘要形式闡述。
第1章 報告摘要
- 大型企業擴大生產能力
- 新式西門子法製造業者成長
- 金屬級解決方案苦戰
- 依然穩固的領導
- 2012年以後
第2章 多晶矽的加工
- 太陽能級 vs 電子級
- 來自矽土的冶金級矽（MG-Si）
- 冶金級矽（MG-Si）的加工
- 矽晶棒：單晶 vs 多晶
第3章 原材料：冶金級矽、TCS（三氯矽烷）以及矽甲烷
- 冶金級矽的原材料
- 轉換技術與加工製程
- TCS原材料
- 矽甲烷原材料
第4章 多晶矽的生產
- 多晶矽生產的歷史以及價格
- 矽的不足（2005-2008年）
- 產業契約條件的發展
- 多晶矽生產能力的現狀
- 全球多晶矽生產能力的地理分布
- 多晶矽生產成本以及價格
第5章 生長法以及晶圓化
- 生長晶棒 vs 鑄造晶棒 vs 帶狀矽/片狀矽
- 晶圓化
- 資本設備廠商
- 晶圓於PV成本結構的經濟學
- 垂直整合：多晶廠商也應該製造晶圓嗎？
第6章 多晶矽的預測以及預測模式（∼2016年）
- 調查方式
- 多晶矽生產能力預測（∼2012年）
- 多晶矽生產預測（∼2016年）
- 變化的多晶矽製造廠的市場動態
第7章 解開多晶矽的限制
- 所預測的多晶矽價格以及利潤率
- 變化的產業結構
- 矽的新式加工法：已改良的冶金級矽
- 替代品的出現：薄膜生產的進步
- 結論見解
第8章 企業檔案資料
Abstract
The global polysilicon industry will undergo a major shakeout over the next
two years, as the feedstock's epic 2011 price declines will continue through
2013. With new entrants bringing capacity online and incumbent suppliers
fulfilling expansion plans fomented in the PV demand boom of yesterday, global
polysilicon capacity is forecasted to double by 2013 over 2010 levels. In
today's market of waning PV demand, this over-supply has already begun to open
significant gaps in production scale and therefore cost structure between
industry leaders and an increasingly marginalized group of new entrants.
GTM Research's report on the global polysilicon market is a comprehensive
analysis of the technologies, strategies and economic roadmap for the
industry. The report includes production and price/margin forecasts to 2016,
along with incisive perspectives on the industry's competitive landscape and
survival strategies available to polysilicon producers.
To learn more about Polysilicon 2012-2016: Supply, Demand & Implications
for the Global PV Industry, download the report's preliminary Table of
Contents here.
FIGURE: Polysilicon Supply Stack by Technology and Company
Note: Company names excluded; to see complete supply stack, purchase report
above.
Source: GTM Research
QUESTIONS FOR COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING
- Are recent declines in polysilicon prices a result of ambitious cost
roadmaps or margin collapse brought on by weak demand?
- What is solar-grade polysilicon production globally and how will
production numbers shift over the next five years?
- What are the implications of polysilicon over-capacity at every step along
the solar supply chain?
- Which polysilicon processing technologies are providing competitive
advantages in terms of costs and quality?
- Does vertical integration offer polysilicon and/or wafer manufacturers a
strategic advantage in the current market?
- How are supply contract terms evolving?
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
- 1.1. Majors Expand Capacity
- 1.2. New Siemens Producers Grow
- 1.3. Met-Grade Solutions Struggle
- 1.4. Guidance Remains Firm
- 1.5. 2012 and Beyond
2. POLYSILICON PROCESSIN G
- 2.1. Solar Grade vs. Electronic Grade
- 2.2. From Silica to Metallurgical Silicon (MG-Si)
- 2.3. Metallurgical Silicon (MG-Si) Processing
- 2.4. Silicon Ingots: Monocrystalline vs. Multicrystalline
3. FEEDSTOC KS - METALLUR GICAL SILICON , TCS , AND SILANE
- 3.1. Metallurgical Silicon Feedstock
- 3.2. Conversion Technology and Processes
- 3.3. TCS Feedstock
- 3.4. Silane Feedstock
4. POLYSILICON PRODUCTION
- 4.1. History of Polysilicon Production and Prices
- 4.2. The Silicon Shortage (2005-2008)
- 4.3. Evolution of Contract Terms for the Industry
- 4.4. Polysilicon Production Capacity Today
- 4.5. Geography of Global Polysilicon Capacity
- 4.6. Polysilicon Production Cost and Price
5. PULLING AND WAFERING
- 5.1. Pulled Ingot vs. Cast Ingots vs. Ribbon/Sheet
- 5.2. Wafering
- 5.3. Capital Equipment Manufacturers
- 5.4. Economics of Wafers for PV Cost Structure
- 5.5. Vertical Integration: Should poly manufacturers make wafers, too?
6. POLYSILICON PROJECTIONS AND FORECAST MODEL THROUGH 2016
- 6.1. Research Methodology
- 6.2. Polysilicon Capacity Projections to 2012
- 6.3. Polysilicon Production Projections to 2016
- 6.4. Changing Market Dynamics for Polysilicon Producers
7. UNWINDING THE POLYSILICON CONSTRAINT
- 7.1. Projected Polysilicon Prices and Margins
- 7.2. Changing Industry Structure
- 7.3. New Silicon Processing - Upgraded Metallurgical Silicon
- 7.4. Emergence of Alternatives: Gains in Thin-Film Production
- 7.5. Concluding Thoughts
8. COMPANY PROFILES
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