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市場調查報告書
全球電動車產業(2011年)：技術・經濟性・市場
Electric Vehicles 2011: Technology, Economics, and Market
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全球電動車產業(2011年)：技術・經濟性・市場 是由出版商Greentech Media Inc.在2011年10月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金2995起跳。
2010年中「Chevy Volt」與日產「Leaf」發售，而讓電動車在乘坐用車市場中的永久地位確立了，全球汽車產業進入了新時代。石油價格高漲・變動與能源貯藏技術的改善、各國政府支援，讓電動車進入經濟的・技術的真正實用化階段、各汽車製造商也全力支援相關開發與普及。
本報告書為電動式乘坐用車世界市場最新動向之相關分析、業界進行的技術的・經濟性・政治的動向之相關詳細考察、今後5年間動向之預測、更有供給側・需要側動向之詳細與主要企業檔案等，概述如下。
第1章 電動車
- 歷史観
- 市場定義與分類
- 車輛種類
- 電池
- 充電基礎設施
- 電動車擁護論
- 結論
第2章 產業狀況(2011年)
- 現在市場規模與技術導入狀況
- 傾向
- 汽油價格上昇
- 燃費提升
- 消費者姿勢・行動變化
- 法規環境變化
- 智慧電網的開發
- 「發動文化」的發生
- 電池的研究開發
- 充電基礎設施的商品化
- 產業統合
- 課題
- 對走行距離的擔憂與充電時間
- 充電ㄐ礎設施的展開
- 「三喱島效果」的風險
- 原價差額
- 消費者行動
- 電力網容量
- 競争的反應
- 國際協調
- 販售・服務基礎設施
- 投資流向
- 法規環境
- 結論
第3章 電動車經濟性
- 經濟上的促進要因
- 資本費用
- 現在／將來電池費用
- 其他資本費用差異促進要因
- 將來資本費用預測
- 運用費用
- 費用促進要因
- 將來運用費用之預測
- 相對的運用費用：電動車(EV)vs.内燃引擎(ICE)
- 資金回收機關
- 總所有成本(TCO)
- 結論
第4章 電動車市場(2011-2015年)
- 電動車產業的供給側
- 企業與製造能力
- 製造能力：乘坐用車
- 製造能力：車隊車輛(Fleet Vehicle)
- 供應鏈的制約
- 電動車的需求側
- 世界規模下的車輛構成
- 代替性制約
- 基礎設施制約
- 消費者需要
- 商業用需要
- 政府的發動計畫
- 結論
- 市場成長與技術普及預測(2011-2015年)
- 汽車販售台數預測
- 插電式油電混合電動車(PHEV)vs.電池電動車(BEV)：車輛導入時的對立
- 2015年以降的預測
- 結論：數年間停滯之後的大躍進
- 市場條件
- 產業的適應
- 農業革命
- 資本流
- 最終的見解
第5章 各部門企業檔案
- 既存汽車製造商
- General Motors
- 日產汽車
- 三菱汽車
- Renault
- 豐田汽車
- Volkswagen
- Daimler
- PSA Peugeot Citroen
- BMW
- Ford
- 本田技研
- Hyundai Kia
- Fiat/Chrysler
- SAIC
- 獨立系汽車製造商
- Tesla Motors
- Coda Automotive
- Fisker Automotive
- BYD
- Think Global
- Bright Automotive
- Chery Automobile
- Wheego Electric Cars
- 充電基礎設施・供應商
- Better Place
- ClipperCreek
- Coulomb Technologies
- Eaton
- ECOtality
- North America
- Epyon Power/ABB
- General Electric
- Leviton
- Schneider Electric
第6章 附錄
第7章 參考文獻
圖表一覧
Abstract
DOMINIC HOFSTETTER AND TRAVIS BRADFORD GTM RESEARCH
The introductions of the Chevy Volt and Nissan LEAF in 2010 marked the
beginning of a new era in the transportation industry: the permanent
establishment of electric-drive in the mass market for passenger vehicles.
Ever-rising and increasingly volatile oil markets and better energy storage
technology have suddenly brought electric vehicles (EVs) to the threshold of
technical and economic viability. Car manufacturers have begun to take a new
interest in EVs, spurred by governments' attempts to reduce energy dependence
and the environmental footprint of the transportation sector.
This report is a comprehensive account of the strategic opportunities created
by the electrification of personal transport. It offers an extensive review of
the technological, economic, and political trends shaping the EV industry. By
investigating supply and demand drivers, it analyzes the industry trajectory
for the next five years. The report relies on supply and demand analysis to
assess industry growth and explores how the supply and demand dynamics are
impacted by preferences and biases.
HIGH-LEVEL ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET TAXONOMY
Table of Contents
1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES
- 1.1 Historical Perspective
- 1.1.1 First Steps:
- Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries
- 1.1.2 Dormancy (1935-1960s) and Awakening (1970s-1990)
- 1.1.3 Adolescence: 2000s and Beyond
- 1.2 Market Definition and Taxonomy
- 1.3 Types of Vehicles
- 1.3.1 ICEs, HEVs, PHEVs, BEVs
- 1.3.2 Comparison of Vehicle Types
- 1.3.3 Electric Motors
- 1.4 Batteries
- 1.4.1 Battery 101
- 1.4.2 Performance Tradeoffs
- 1.4.3 State of Technology (Fitness for Purpose)
- 1.5 Charging Infrastructure
- 1.5.1 Infrastructure Components
- 1.5.2 Charging Mechanics
- 1.5.3 Utility and Grid Infrastructure
- 1.5.4 Other Charging Challenges
- 1.6 The Case for Electric Vehicles
- 1.6.1 Economic Benefits
- 1.6.2 Oil Independence and Energy Security
- 1.6.3 Environmental Benefits
- 1.6.4 Other Benefits
- 1.7 Conclusion
2. STATE OF THE INDUSTRY IN 2011
- 2.1 Current Market Size and State of Technology Adoption
- 2.2 Trends
- 2.2.1 Rising Gasoline Prices
- 2.2.2 Increasing Fuel Economy
- 2.2.3 Changes in Consumer Attitudes and Behavior
- 2.2.4 Changes in Regulatory Environment
- 2.2.5 Development of the Smart Grid
- 2.2.6 Emergence of a Startup Culture
- 2.2.7 Battery Research and Development
- 2.2.8 Commoditization of Charging Infrastructure
- 2.2.9 Industry Consolidation
- 2.3 Challenges
- 2.3.1 Range Anxiety and Charging Time
- 2.3.2 Deployment of Charging Infrastructure
- 2.3.3 Risk of the Three Mile Island Effect
- 2.3.4 Cost Differential
- 2.3.5 Consumer Behavior
- 2.3.6 Grid Capacity
- 2.3.7 Competitive Response
- 2.3.8 International Coordination
- 2.3.9 Sales and Service Infrastructure
- 2.4 Investment Flows
- 2.4.1 Public Investment
- 2.4.2 Private Investment
- 2.5 Regulatory Environment
- 2.5.1 General Attractiveness
- 2.5.2 Financial Support
- 2.6 Conclusion
3. EV ECONOMICS
- 3.1 Economic Drivers
- 3.2 Capital Cost
- 3.2.1 Current and Future Battery Costs
- 3.2.2 Other Drivers of Capital Cost Differentials
- 3.2.3 Predicting Future Capital Costs
- 3.3 Operating Costs
- 3.3.1 Cost Drivers
- 3.3.2 Predicting Future Operating Costs
- 3.3.3 Relative Operating Costs: Evs vs. ICEs
- 3.3.4 Payback Period
- 3.4 Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
- 3.4.1 TCO in the United States
- 3.4.2 International Perspective
- 3.5 Conclusion
4. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET 2011-2015
- 4.1 Supply Side of the EV Industry
- 4.1.1 Players and Manufacturing Capacity
- 4.1.2 Production Capacity: Passenger Vehicles
- 4.1.3 Production Capacity: Fleet Vehicles
- 4.1.4 Supply Chain Constraints
- 4.2 Demand Side of the EV Industry
- 4.2.1 Global Vehicle Fleet
- 4.2.2 Substitutability Constraints
- 4.2.3 Infrastructure Constraints
- 4.2.4 Consumer Demand
- 4.2.5 Commercial Demand
- 4.2.6 Government Roll-Out Programs
- 4.2.7 Conclusions
- 4.3 Forecasting Market Growth and Technology Deployment Between 2011 and
2015
- 4.3.1 Forecasting Vehicle Sales
- 4.3.2 PHEV vs. BEVs in Vehicle Deployment
- 4.4 Beyond 2015
- 4.5 Conclusions: A Few Years of Creep, Then a Major Leap
- 4.5.1 Market Conditions
- 4.5.2 Industry Adaptations
- 4.5.3 Architecture Evolution
- 4.5.4 Capital Flows
- 4.5.5 Final Remarks
5. COMPANY PROFILES BY SUB-SECTORS
- 5.1 Established Car Manufacturers
- General Motors
- Nissan
- Mitsubishi
- Renault
- Toyota
- Volkswagen
- Daimler
- PSA Peugeot Citroen
- BMW
- Ford
- Honda
- Hyundai Kia
- Fiat/Chrysler
- SAIC
- 5.2 Independent Car Manufacturers
- Tesla Motors
- Coda Automotive
- Fisker Automotive
- BYD
- Think Global
- Bright Automotive
- Chery Automobile
- Wheego Electric Cars
- 5.3 Charging Infrastructure Providers
- Better Place
- ClipperCreek
- Coulomb Technologies
- Eaton
- ECOtality
- North America
- Epyon Power/ABB
- General Electric
- Leviton
- Schneider Electric
6. APPENDIX
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
LIST OF FIGURES
1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES
- U.S. Electric Vehicle Timeline
- High-Level Electric Vehicle Market Taxonomy
- Electric Vehicle Configurations
- Electric Motor vs. ICE Efficiency Curve
- Comparison of Vehicle Types
- Batteries of Tesla Roadster, Nissan LEAF, and Chevy Volt
- Value Chain for Electric Vehicle Batteries
- Li-ion vs. NiMH
- Comparison of Li-Ion Chemistries
- Specific Energy and Specific Power of Different Battery Types
- Conceptual Illustration of Battery Discharge
- Average Daily Range Requirement for Personal Vehicles
- Proportion of Trips Possible From Batteries of Different Capacities
- Home Charging Times for Mid-Size PHEVs
- Charging Equipment from Select Equipment Manufacturers
- Battery Switch Station from Better Place
- Map of Public Charging Spots in the United States as of June 30, 2011
- Current Readiness versus Future Momentum of Top 50 Metros
- Technical Potential for Fueling the Regional LDV Fleet With Available
Electric Capacity
- 24-Hour Total Loading of Single Feeder
- Costs of Oil Dependence to the U.S. Economy, 1970-2009
- Energy and Carbon Intensity Values for Conventional Vehicles, Hybrids, and
PHEVs
2. STATE OF THE INDUSTRY IN 2011
- Popular Electric Vehicles
- Weekly U.S. All Grades, All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices
- Gasoline Prices by Country
- Elasticity of Demand for Crude Oil - Estimates for Selected Countries
(1971-2000)
- Oil Prices and HEV Sales, U.S., Historical
- LDV Fuel Economy
- Average Fuel Economy Trends Through 2008 by Region, With Enacted or
Proposed Targets Through 2020
- Technology for Improved Fuel Economy and Reduced CO2 Emissions
- Top 10 ARRA Awardees in Electric Drive and Vehicle Battery Component
Manufacturing
- Top 10 Venture Capital Investments in EV Companies in H1 2011
- Electric Vehicle Attractiveness by Country
- State-Level Incentives in the United States
- Financial Incentives for Electric Cars by Country (in EUR)
3. EV ECONOMICS
- Battery Cost Break-Up
- USABC Performance and Cost Goals of Li-ion Batteries
- Battery Cost Estimates With Production Volume
- Estimates of PHEV Li-ion Battery Pack Cost
- Learning Curves in Battery Manufacturing
- Electric Vehicle Cost Premium Forecasts in USD
- Key Drivers of EV Operating Costs
- Cycle Cost of Battery
- Simplified Variable Cost of ICEs vs. BEVs in the United States
- Cost Advantage of BEVs: 2012-2020
- Cost Advantage of BEVs, 2012-2035
- Gasoline and Electricity Cost in Select Markets
- International Comparison of Cost Advantage
- Total Cost of Ownership for Stylized Vehicles
- Sensitivity of Cost Advantage of Average BEV to Gasoline Prices and
Subsidies
- Financing Vehicle Purchase With Car Loans
- Sensitivity of Cost Advantage of Average PHEV to All-Electric Range and
MSRP
- Total Cost of Ownership of Currently Available Vehicles
- TCO Comparison Across Select Countries
4. ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET 2011-2015
- List of Passenger Electric Vehicle Manufacturers
- Announced Production Capacity by Car Manufacturer
- List of Select Commercial Electric Vehicle Manufacturers
- Worldwide Lithium Production and Reserves
- Historical and Projected Contained Lithium Demand
- Lithium Harvesting in Bolivia' s Salar de Uyuni, the World' s Largest Salt
Flat
- Demand and Supply of Rare Earth Minerals Worldwide
- Demand Constraints in the Electric Vehicle Industry
- Percentage Change in Car Fleet Growth (1996- 2008)
- Stock and Flow Data for Select Countries
- Unlikely Purchasers of Electric Vehicles
- Access to Recharge Spot by Location and Outlet Distance
- Consumer Interest in Alternative Powertrain Types
- Factors That Would Favorably Influence People' s Decision to Purchase a
PHEV or EV
- Factors That Would Make People Hesitant to Choose a PHEV or EV
- Percentage Distribution of PHEV Designs by Early Market Potential
Respondents
- Share of Vehicle Trips by Distance (2009 NHTS)
- Overview of EPA Driving Cycles
- Driving Cycles and Fuel Economy in the United States, Europe, and Japan
- Electricity Availability and Instantaneous Power demand by Time-of-Day in
Watts (Weekday Average)
- A Selection of Fleet Electrification Announcements
- Announced Targets for Annual Sales and Stock Size by Country in 2015 and
2020
- Announced Targets for National Fleets (Cumulative Stocks), 2010-2020
- Third-Party Forecasts of EV Fleets in Different Regions
- Selection of Long-Term Forecasts by Various Third-Party Analysts
5. COMPANY PROFILES BY SUB-SECTORS
- List of Available and Announced BEV Models
- List of Available and Announced PHEV Models
- List of Charging Infrastructure Providers
VALUE-ADDED ELEMENTS:
- Growth analysis and investment flows for global EV market through 2015.
- Breakdown of current EV economics and opportunities for reducing capital,
battery and EV operating costs.
- Examination of supply-side manufacturer capacities and contraints to
growth.
- Analysis of demand-side cost benefits, deployment programs and
infrastructure constraints.
- Over 30 strategic profiles of car manufacturers and charging structure
infrastructure providers.
STRATEGIC INQUIRIES:
- What technologies and companies are vying for market share?
- How fast will the market grow and what will drive growth?
- What other infrastructure elements will be required and what are the
prospects for those?
- Are there alternative business models which might help address obstacles?
- How competitive are Evs relative to ICEs today, and how is this
competitiveness expected to change over time?
- Which technologies will win, and what investment strategies are available
to capitalize on that insight?
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