The history of the networking business is largely based on network evolution
steps that were determined by the geniuses at Bell Labs. Another group of
geniuses at the same institution determined end-user (station apparatus)
capabilities. The famous beginning of the telephone industry might have been:
in today' s terms: “Watson: come here. I need your cell phone
number.”
It has been said that there have been three network designs: the telegraph
network: the telephone network: and the Internet network. Each had its
particular end-user apparatus - the telegraph: the telephone: and the
computer. As we have changed from each of these paradigms to the next: we have
seen massive business transformations by the major players. Some companies
made the transformation; they survived and prospered; some did not and died.
This report is about how to make those transformations and specifically about
what network will be coming next - the next-generation network!
Report Features
This report reviews the techniques for NGN planning and some of the drivers in
today' s market for that planning activity.
It includes the following major areas:
The general forecast for the U.S. economy and particularly the U.S. telcos.
Forecasts of CapEx for the next five years.
A survey of what major players are doing in NGN planning.
Interviews with some of the top thinkers in the telecommunications
business today about NGN.
The changing face of the network - why it is changing and how.
A discussion of what the major carriers are doing in related areas.
Our characterization of the NGN - access: speed: and flexibility.
Our forecast for the next-generation network architecture - access:
transport: and control.
A presentation of architectural options facing a telecommunications
company it the advanced access area: and a model of the related economics.
A discussion of standards activity related to NGN.
A description of the major technology groups in the NGN: with forecasts
for their deployment.
A listing of major vendors of NGN hardware and software.
Why have an NGN? - Why change networks?
If we have a perfectly good: working network: why do we change it? Why do we
evolve it?
Here are some reasons:
We find a way to make it cheaper to operate. (e.g.: changing from open
wire to plastic sheathed cables).
We find a way to make it cheaper to grow. (e.g.: we add cross-boxes).
We find that we need more capacity. (e.g.: we convert from cable-derived
circuits to T-1-derived circuits).
The end-user devices (station apparatus) demands that we provide more or
different functionality. (e.g.: HDTV delivery).
Of course: particularly with items 1: 2: and 3: there is often a mixture of
motives for change. Often the need for more: cheaper capacity will combine
items 2 and 3: for example. Over time: the importance of these reasons has
changed.
As a part of this report: we will find that now the reason for changing
networks is to meet end user-demand for services. The rationale for changing
networks is moving from technology/cost savings to customer-driven!
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
General Reports on the Network
General Market Reports
Specific Systems Reports
Introduction
The Impact of Competitive Networks
Transformation Planning
Why Do We Change Networks?
Customer is King!
This Report
US Telecommunications Economic Forecast
General Economic Background
Telecom Economic Background
Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
Telecommunications Capital Forecast
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts Summary
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
Survey of Next Generation Network Activities by Major Players
AT&T
BT (British Telecom) - “21CN'
Comcast
NTT (Japan)
Orange/FT (French Telecom)
Telstra (Australian)
Verizon
Qwest
Ciena
NeoPhotonics
Changing Face of the Network
Why Change Networks?
Cheaper Operation:
Cheaper to Grow
Need for More Capacity:
End-User Demand.
How the Network Is Changing
Historical Network
Recent Network
Future Network
“Watson: Come Here - I Need your Cell Number!”
The Next Generation Network
NGN - Characterization
Access
Speed
Flexibility
NGN - Architecture
NGN - Access
NGN - Transport
Local
Soft switches
MSPP
Metro DWDM
R-OADMs
IXC
R-OADMs
OC-768 and SONET Advances
IP
“Big Iron”
NGN - Control
New Competitors vs. Super Competitors View of Control
Control Forecast - A Compromise
1. Direct Control
2. Common Control and the Intelligent Network
3. NGN Control
Summary of NGN Forecast
Economic Analysis for Various NGN Advanced Access Architectures
Comparison of Three Major Approaches
BellSouth' s Fiber to the Curb (FTTC)
AT&T' s Fiber to the node (FTTN)
Verizon' s FTTP (Fiber to the Premise)
Summary of Fiber Requirements
An Economic Model NGN - AAA Architectural Differences
Fiber Required for Each Architecture
Cost of Fiber Needed for Each Architecture
AT&T' s New Plans for BellSouth - A Hybrid FTTC/FTTN
The Technologies of the Next Generation Network
Advanced Access Architectures
Verizon
AT&T
Bell South
Qwest
NGPONs - Advanced Options - 10-GPON and WDM-PON
10-GPON
WDM-PONs
Vendors of WDM-PON
Other WDM-PON Activities
Vendors of WDM - Listing and Summary of Status
ROADMs
Achieving SONET-like Control in Optical Networks
A New ROADM
Evolution to the Edge
NGN Standards Activities
ITU
IEFT
Comparison of ITU and IEFT NGN Views
Forecast for NGN Technologies
Advanced Access Architectures Forecast
Forecasts for Deployment
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
AAA Forecast Summary
AT&T
Verizon
BellSouth
Qwest
Forecast Size of Deployments
Forecast of Homes Passed
Penetration Rates
Growth of AAA and Reduction in xDSL
ROADM Forecast
Model for Forecast Core and Metro ROADMs
Assumptions of Model
Model for Forecast - Edge ROADMs
Systems - Forecast
US Edge ROADMs
US Market Forecast
Vendors for the NGN
Advanced Access Architecture Vendors
Acterna (acquired by JDSU)
ADC
Adtran
Advanced Fibre Communications Inc. (AFCI) (Now Tellabs)
Alcatel-Lucent
Alloptic Inc
Amino Technologies plc
Avanex Corporation (now Oclaro)
Broadlight
Calix
Cisco
Conexant
Corrigent (now Orckit)
Entrisphere Inc. (Acquired by Ericsson)
Ericsson
Fiberxon (Now Source Photonics combined with Luminent)
Finisar Corporation
FlexLight Networks (Defunct)
Fujitsu
Genone3 Technologies Inc.
Hitachi Communication Technologies Ltd.
Humax USA Inc.
JDS Uniphase
Kreatel Communications AB (Acquired by Motorola)
LG Electronics
LightComm Technology
Marconi
Microsoft
Motorola
NeoPhotonics
Nortel
Novera Optics (owned by Nortel / LG JV)
OFS
O-Net Communications Ltd
Oplink Communications: Inc.
Optiviva Inc.
Optical Solutions (Acquired by Calix)
Osaki Electric Co. Ltd.
Paceon (Mitsubishi)
Passave (Acquired by PMC-Sierra)
PMC-Sierra
Quantum Bridge Communications (Acquired by Motorola)
Salira Optical Network Systems
Scientific-Atlanta (Cisco)
Siemens
Source Photonics (Combined with Fiberxon and Luminent)
Optical Communications Market Forecast: Tested by an Earthquake, a Tsunami and a Flood in 2011, the Industry Is Poised to Navigate Well Through Macroeconomic Uncertainty in 2012 - 2015
