美國通信市場與Google加入市場的影響 是由出版商IGI Consulting, Inc.在2009年03月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金1995起跳。
Abstract
Overview
This is the first of a major series of reports to be published by Information
Gatekeepers on the subject of "Telco Business Transformation and the
Next-generation Network." Many of the world' s telcos are now involved in
redefining the way they do business, and the kind of network they need in
their planned new environment. This series of reports will be a “how
to” manual as well as a report on activities by the various major
players and forecasts for the resulting next-generation network.
To begin a transformation project, one must consider the market facing the
business. Therefore, this first report in the transformation series deals with
the telecom market situation today. Later reports in this series will consider
other aspects of the transformation process, including the planning
environment, goals setting, the next-generation network, next-generation
network technologies, and next-generation vendors.
Although this report will consider several important market impacts, the most
current is the announcement by Google of Google Voice. For some years, this
analyst, as well as others, has been watching Google for an entry into
telecommunications. Most of their business is telecommunications based, so it
is a natural fit. Our last report (in 2005) on the general telecom market
situation, “Next Generation Network - Will the RBOCs get Googled
Up?”, predicted the rise of a class of “super competitors”
to the RBOCs, led by Google. That still is a good forecast, and it is
beginning to happen with Google.
Google and the RBOCs
In 2007, Google purchased a small startup called Grand Central. Grand Central
provided a service that allowed calls to follow a user to different phones,
and visual voicemail. In early March 2009, Google announced that it had now
rebranded the service to Google Voice and added a number of new features.
Early reporting on the features included free calling within the United
States, extremely cheap international calling, and many advanced call- and
phone-management capabilities. Although not yet available to the general
public (it is said that it will be in a few weeks), the threat is clear.
Google is indicating that it will give away the entire voice business (at
least within the United States) just to get an added advertising platform.
How do you compete with ‘Free' ?
Can the RBOCs and other telcos compete with “free”? What are the
implications for the overall telecom business? In 2005, we issued a report,
“The Next Generation Network - Will the RBOCs be Googled Up?”,
suggesting in the section on competition that Google would become a
“super competitor” and would attack the telcos' market. It appears
that is now happening, and this report provides extensive forecasts as to our
view of the outcome of this attack and other market forces currently in play.
Report Features
This report will attempt to answer these questions, in the broader context of
the overall competitive environment of U.S. telephony today. In addition to
the “super competitors,” we feel that the following are the major
issues in today' s competitive structure in telecommunications.
- Telcos become wireless, rather than wireline companies;
- The Advanced Access Architecture deployments being undertaken by the major
RBOCs and many smaller telcos;
- Overbuilding by major telcos;
- The emergence of the “super competitors.”
This report will address each of these areas and provide forecasts as to IGI' s
expectations for each. Because of the overriding importance of the state of
the U.S. (and world) economy, the report will begin with a review of IGI' s
forecasts for the nation' s economy as well as its impact on telephony. The
report will then continue with a review of the current telecom market
structure; with that background, we will then address each of the above listed
issues.
This series of reports is being prepared by Clifford Holliday, a writer and
analyst for IGI. His many previous projects have included the massive
Lightwave Series of Reports, the recent ROADM Series of Reports, and the AAA
Series of Reports. Mr. Holliday spent many years as the VP in charge of
technology planning in the Business Development department of GTE. He was
involved in or led at least seven different major “transformation”
projects (including “PIP” - Performance Improvement Projects -
Winning Connection I and II, WINS, and Technology Reorganization). His
background and expertise in this area are the match of any practitioner today.
Table of Contents
THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS
- The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
INTRODUCTION
- The Telco Business Transformation and Next Generation Network Series of
Reports
- How do you compete with “Free?”
GENERAL US ECONOMIC FORECAST
- General Economic Background
- Telecom Economic Background
- Possible Positives for Telecom in 2009
- Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
THE FACE OF NETWORK COMPETITION - MARKET STRUCTURE TODAY
- RBOCs' Multidimensional Competitive Struggle
- Post-merger Competition
- RBOC Purchase of IXCs
- RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
ADVANCED ACCESS ARCHITECTURE PLANS
- AAA Deployment Forecast Summary
- Forecast Size of Deployments
- Forecast of Homes Passed
- Penetration Rates
RBOCS ARE BECOMING WIRELESS ACCESS COMPANIES
- RBOC Loss of Main Lines
- It' s a Wireless Access Industry!
- The Wireless Access Landscape
- Forecast for Wireline to Wireless
THE SUPER COMPETITORS
- Google Attacks - Google Voice
- Forecast for Google Voice
- Forecast for Google Voice
OVERBUILD
- Overbuild - How?
- Overbuild - Significance
- A New Type of Competition
- Summary of Overbuild Forecasts
SUMMARY OF FORECASTS
- General Economic Forecasts
Telecommunications Economic Forecasts - 2009
- Advanced Access Architectures
- Google Voice/Google Forecast
Table of Figures
- Figure 1: Lightwave Network
- Figure 2: Telecommunications Economic Forecasts
- Figure 3: Summary of Competitive Position
- Figure 4: Revised Competitive Structure Due to IXC Purchases
- Figure 5: RBOCs Subsume IXCs and CLECs
- Figure 6: RBOCs vs. Cable Companies
- Figure 7: Telcos vs. Cable Companies - 2009
- Figure 8: Forecast Homes Passed Cumulative- All Technologies
- Figure 9: Forecast Homes Passed Annually - By Company - All Technologies
- Figure 10: FTTX vs. High-speed Accesses vs. US Households
- Figure 11: Verizon Wireline vs. Data Revenues
- Figure 12: Verizon Loss of Main Lines vs. Data Revenue
- Figure 13: Wireless Competition
- Figure 14: Forecast for Wireline to Wireless Migration
- Figure 15: The Super Competitors
- Figure 16: Google as a Serious Threat
- Figure 17: Forecast for Google Voice
- Figure 18: Verizon' s NOOF Arrangement
- Figure 19: Forecasted Overbuild Strategic Outcome
