Abstract
Overview
Understanding network traffic is fundamental to any marketing or business
plan. This new report, “North American Network Traffic Forecast
2011,” by the Lightwave Report Series author, Clifford Holliday,
provides detailed telecommunications forecasts for North America thorough
2016. It is our first traffic forecast report since Mr. Holliday' s 2006 report
on this subject. That 2006 report became an instant industry classic, setting
the standard for traffic forecasts for many years.
This latest report forecasts an astounding 100 Exabytes of traffic on the
North American network by 2016.
Since the 2006 effort, many changes have occurred that dramatically impact the
nature of network traffic. These changes, which are fully considered in this
new report, include the following:
The dramatic rise in traffic from advanced access architecture (AAA) lines
(FTTP and FTTN); The startling increase in IPTV traffic;
The increase in popularity of using mobile devices and especially using them
for data-intensive applications - smartphones and tablets;
The increase in overseas traffic, especially from the booming economies of the
Far East;
The relative decline (in the period of this forecast) of high-speed access
lines and the traffic from them. This includes xDSL lines and cable modems.
“North American Network Traffic Forecast 2011” provides
year-by-year forecasts for many classes of traffic, including the
following:
- High-speed access traffic
- Dialup data traffic
- AAA lines data traffic
- Mobile data traffic
- International traffic (into and out of North America)
- VoIP traffic
- Other data networks traffic
- Private line traffic
- Voice traffic
- IPTV traffic
In addition to individual forecasts for each of the above, the report provides
forecasts for total network traffic and Internet traffic, as well as the
relevant growth rates.
Augmenting the very detailed discussion, there are 60 charts and figures to
provide all the data on traffic necessary to achieve a full understanding of
the forecasts.
Traffic quantities are of importance to anyone trying to develop market plans
for telecommunications equipment and facilities. Traffic quantities and
changes in growth rates are important because of their fundamental role in
the following:
- Determining the need for equipment additions by the multitude of carriers
contributing to the various segments of this network of networks
Supporting facility additions (fiber and fiber routes)
Requiring additions to cable company networks for high-speed data; " Defining
the need for higher-speed accesses and all the equipment associated with
providing that extra speed
Supporting the ever-increasing need for safety of data, continuity of service,
and privacy of data ; Suggesting the growing value of advertising and similar
activities on the Internet
The author provides copious information in the Appendixes to allow
telecommunications professionals - even those not schooled in traffic
forecasting - to understand the terminology and concepts.
Table of Contents
The Lightwave Network Series of Reports
The Lightwave Network
The Lightwave Series of Reports
- General Reports on the Network
- General Market Reports
- Specific Systems Reports
Executive Summary
- Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
- High-speed Access Lines (xDSL and Cable Modems)
- Traffic Forecast for High-speed Users
- Dialup Traffic
- Advanced Access Architecture (AAA) Traffic
- Mobile Traffic
- Total Internet Traffic
- International Traffic
- VoIP Traffic
- Other Data Networks
- Private Line Networks
- Voice Traffic
- Total Network Traffic
- Appendices
Introduction
Approach to Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
Total Network Traffic
Nomenclature
Major Traffic Sources
IPTV
Four Other (Non-IPTV) Sources of Traffic
- AAA Access Lines
- Mobile Devices
- International Traffic
- High-speed Access Lines
- High-speed Access Lines
High-speed Access Lines Forecast
- Household Penetration - New Forecast
Traffic Forecast for High-speed Users
High-speed Line Traffic
Rationale for Updating the Traffic Forecast High-speed Lines
New High-speed (xDSL and Cable Modem) per-line Traffic Forecast
- Change to 75% of BH to Average
Components of BH Traffic Change Over Time
New Internet Traffic Forecast from High-speed Lines (xDSL and Cable Modem)
Dialup Traffic
AAA Traffic
Mobile Traffic
Total Internet Traffic Forecast
Lightwave Network
Network Location of Internet Traffic
Internet Traffic Forecast
Other Traffic Types on the Backbone Network
International Traffic
- Network Location of International Traffic
- Forecast for International Traffic
VoIP Traffic
- Location of VoIP Traffic on the Network
- Forecast for VoIP Traffic
Other Data Networks
- Location of Other Network Traffic
- Forecast for Other Network Traffic
Private Line Networks
- Location of Private Line Traffic
- Forecast for Private Line Traffic
Voice Traffic
- Location of Voice Traffic
- Forecast for Voice Traffic
IPTV
IPTV Global Architecture
- Super Hub Office
- Video Hub Office
- Serving Offices
What are the Access Bandwidth Needs?
- Drivers of Bandwidth Requirements
Bandwidth Requirements - 2012 Scenario
Traffic Forecasts
Total Network Traffic - No IPTV
Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV
Growth of the Internet
Appendix I: Traffic Statistics Relationships
Appendix II: Data Traffic Fundamentals
Internet Traffic Calculations
- Bits and Bytes
- Transfer Rate
- Busy Hour Traffic
- Protocol Efficiencies
- Statistical Multiplexing
- Peaking
- Summary of Concepts
Table of Figures
- Fig.01: Lightwave Network
- Fig. 02: Premise for Forecasting Traffic on the Internet
- Fig. 03: Internet Traffic Formula
- Fig. 04: Total Traffic Compared to IPTV
- Fig. 05: Data Traffic from Major Sources - No IPTV
- Fig. 06: Comparison of Four Major Sources to Total Traffic - No IPTV
- Fig. 07: New High-speed Access Forecast
- Fig. 08: High-speed Lines Forecasts - All Types
- Fig. 09: High-speed Access Household Penetration Rate - New Forecast
- Fig. 10: BH High-speed per Line Usage - Old Forecast
- Fig. 11: New Forecast for Per-line Traffic
- Fig. 12: Components of New Forecast for per Line Usage in BH
- Fig. 13: Components of the Total per-line BH Traffic Estimates
- Fig. 14: Changes in per-line BH Usage Components
- Fig. 15: File Sharing Component Decomposition
- Fig. 16: File Sharing Components - 2006
- Fig. 17: File Sharing Components in 2010
- Fig. 18: File Sharing Components Change Over Time
- Fig. 19: Internet Traffic Formula
- Fig. 20: Forecast for Internet Traffic from High-speed Accesses
- Fig. 21: Dialup Lines Forecast
- Fig. 22: Dialup Traffic Forecast
- Fig. 23: High-speed vs. Dialup Traffic
- Fig. 24: Ratio of High-speed Traffic to AAA per Line Traffic
- Fig. 25: AAA Line Forecast
- Fig. 26: AAA Traffic
- Fig. 27: Mobile Traffic
- Fig. 28: Lightwave Network
- Fig. 29: Network Location - Internet Traffic
- Fig. 30: Internet Total Traffic Forecast
- Fig. 31: Internet Traffic Change over Time
- Fig. 32: Network Location of International Traffic
- Fig. 33: International Traffic
- Fig. 34: Location of VoIP Traffic
- Fig. 35: VoIP Traffic
- Fig. 36: Location of Other Network Traffic
- Fig. 37: Other Data Networks
- Fig. 38: Location of Private Line Traffic
- Fig. 39: Private Line Networks
- Fig. 40: Location of Voice Traffic
- Fig. 41: Voice Traffic
- Fig. 42: IPTV Global Architecture
- Fig. 43: Drivers of Access Bandwidth Requirements
- Fig. 44: Usage Scenario - 2012
- Fig. 45: 2012 Bandwidth Requirements
- Fig. 46: Forecast Access Bandwidth Requirements 2012
- Fig. 47: Comparison of Internet Access Speed Offered
- Fig. 48: Total Traffic Forecast - No IPTV
- Fig. 49: Growth Rate - All Traffic - No IPTV
- Fig. 50: Total Traffic Forecast - Including IPTV
- Fig. 51: Backbone Growth Rates - Including IPTV
- Fig. 52: All Traffic Components - Including IPTV
- Fig. 53: Total Traffic Forecast and Growth Rate - Including IPTV
- Fig. 54: Internet Components Forecast
- Fig. 55: Internet Growth Rate - New Forecast
- Fig. 56: Traffic/Speed Relationships
- Fig. 57: Example of Various Traffic Sizes
- Fig. 58: Multiples of ByteFig. 59: New Transfer Rate Forecast
- Fig. 60: Summary of Concepts
