Abstract
GBI Research’s new report “Natural Gas Industry to 2016 -
Abundance of Unconventional Gas Changing the Industry Landscape”. The
study, which is an offering from the company’s Energy Research Group,
provides an in-depth analysis of the natural gas market across the world and
highlights the various concerns, shifting trends and major players in the
region. The report provides forecasts for the exploration and production
industry, natural gas pipeline industry, natural gas storage industry,
unconventional resources and production and consumption analysis till 2016.
The report also provides consumption forecasts in different geographic
regions. The report provides in-depth analysis of the key trends and
challenges in the natural gas market across the world. An analysis of the
competitive scenario of the different segments is provided. The report is
built using the data and information sourced from proprietary databases,
primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s
team of industry experts.
Unconventional Natural Gas Will Account for Majority of Natural Gas Supply and
will be the key driver of Natural gas production growth in North America
The North American natural gas industry is expected to witness a steady growth
in production from 72.4 Bcf/d in 2008 to 82.1 Bcf/d in 2020, at an AAGR of
1.2%. The unconventional natural gas is expected to account for 52% of the
total production in 2020. In US, the unconventional natural gas already
accounts for approximately 50% of the production. By 2020, the share is
expected to increase to 58%. In Canada, the unconventional natural gas
production is expected to account for 30% of the production in 2002, up from
approximately 5% share in 2008.
North America Natural Gas Industry, Growth In Natural Gas Production, Bcf/d,
2008-20
Source: GBI Research
Shale gas plays are expected to be the prime drivers of growth in North
America’s natural gas production. The six major shale gas plays in North
America namely Antrim, Barnett, Woodford, Haynesville, Fayetteville, Marcellus
and Horn River are together expected to produce approximately 19.6 Bcf/d in
2020 with over 50% of this production coming from Haynesville and Barnett
shale plays.
Increased Global LNG Supply Leading To A Negative Outlook For The Industry
The global economic crisis has led to a significant drop in natural gas demand
globally. The global natural gas demand dropped drastically in 2009, which led
to a huge slump in natural gas prices. The excess production and low demand
have forced the natural gas prices to remain low at an average of $4 - $4.5
per MMBTU, even with crude oil prices hovering at around $80 a barrel. LNG
demand too has suffered, as a result of it being interdependent on natural gas
demand. LNG prices have dropped significantly as a result in the recent past.
Prices of spot LNG in Asia for immediate delivery slumped to as low as $3.8
per MMBTU in May 2010 from about $25 MMBTU in 2008, as the global recession
cut demand from Japan and South Korea.
While the global LNG demand dropped substantially, the supply of LNG improved
with new LNG liquefaction plants becoming operational in Qatar, Yemen,
Indonesia and Russia. The new planned LNG terminals may further deepen the LNG
supply glut. The major contributors to this increase are Australia, Iran,
Nigeria and Qatar. Even in the Asia-Pacific region, where demand in India and
China continued to grow, the drop in demand from major consumers like Japan,
Korea and Taiwan created a slump in the overall LNG demand in the region. A
major part of this increasing liquefaction capacity was intended for the US
market, which was at one point struggling with decreasing natural gas
production. However, with the spurt in production from shale basins, the new
liquefaction terminals will further deepen the global LNG supply glut.
The excess of natural gas supplies in the world has led the LNG spot prices to
new lows. The drop in spot LNG prices has made buyers rethink long term LNG
contracts. Importers can now easily tap the global market for spot cargoes at
lower prices than the long-term supply agreements. Consequently, the LNG
industry will be buyer driven until 2011, as supplies would continue to exceed
demand as in 2009. The ‘tough phase’ of the industry could be
potentially aggravated by upcoming additional new LNG facilities. This is in
sharp contrast to the supplier-driven LNG market of 2008. Along with this, the
major factor of increasing natural gas supplies from unconventional sources is
expected to adversely affect the industry. These factors have significantly
altered the supply situation, inducing a surplus in supply.
Storage Will Keep The Downward Pressure On Prices
With the discoveries of abundant shale gas deposits and the effects of the
global recession having a negative effect on the demand, the natural gas
prices are witnessing a downward pressure. By mid summer of 2010 the
inventories in US were about 18 % high from the five year average. In Nov 2009
the inventories reached a record high of 3.84 trillion cubic feet (tcf). With
the companies beginning to inject gas in storages for winter, inventories will
continue to rise.
Natural Gas Industry to 2016 - Abundance of Unconventional Gas Changing the
Industry Landscape
Summary
GBI Research’s new report “Natural Gas Industry to 2016 -
Abundance of Unconventional Gas Changing the Industry Landscape”. The
study, which is an offering from the company’s Energy Research Group,
provides an in-depth analysis of the natural gas market across the world and
highlights the various concerns, shifting trends and major players in the
region. The report provides forecasts for the exploration and production
industry, natural gas pipeline industry, natural gas storage industry,
unconventional resources and production and consumption analysis till 2016.
The report also provides consumption forecasts in different geographic
regions. The report provides in-depth analysis of the key trends and
challenges in the natural gas market across the world. An analysis of the
competitive scenario of the different segments is provided. The report is
built using the data and information sourced from proprietary databases,
primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s
team of industry experts.
Scope
- The report provides in-depth analysis on the major factors affecting the
global natural gas industry. Its scope includes:
- Overview and analysis
of the global natural gas industry
- Analysis of the historical trends and
forecasts to 2016
- Analysis and forecasts of different sectors under
natural gas including exploration and production, pipelines, storage
-
Analysis of different geographic regions including North America, South and
Central America, Europe, Middle East and Africa and Asia Pacific
-
Analysis of the global natural gas consumption and the effect of the rise of
the unconventional natural gas industry
- Analyzes the competitive
scenario in the global natural gas industry under different countries covering
companies such as PetroChina, Chevron, Gazprom, Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation, - Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil, TransCanada, Pemex, PetroBras,
etc.
Reasons to buy
- The report will enhance your decision making capability. It will allow you
to:
- Develop business strategies with the help of specific insights about
the global natural gas industry.
- Identify opportunities and challenges
in the global natural gas industry.
- Understand the market positioning of
the companies operating through the value chain in the natural gas industry in
different geographic regions.
- Increase future revenues and profitability
with the help of insights on the future opportunities and critical success
factors in the global natural gas industry.
- Benchmark your operations
and strategies against the major players in different segments in the global
natural gas industry
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8
2
The Future of the Natural Gas Industry to 2016 9
2.1 Report Guidance 9
3 Overview of the Natural Gas Industry 10
3.1 Natural Gas Industry
Structure 10
3.1.1 Exploration 11
3.1.2 Extraction 11
3.1.3
Production 12
3.1.4 Transportation 12
3.1.5 Storage 12
3.1.6
Distribution 13
3.1.7 Marketing 13
3.2 Global Natural Gas Exploration
and Production Industry 13
3.3 Global Natural Gas Pipeline Industry 13
3.4 Global LNG Industry 14
3.5 Global Natural Gas Storage Industry 14
3.6 Global Natural Gas Consumption 14
4 Global Natural Gas Industry
- Key Issues And Challenges 15
4.1 Paradigm Shift in Natural Gas
Resources and Supply 15
4.2 Falling Prices: Unpredictability Prevails
15
4.3 Asian NOC’s and IOC’s are Increasingly Scouting for
Investments 16
4.4 Low Demand and Excess of Supplies Creates a Buyer
Driven LNG Industry 16
4.5 Increasing LNG Imports in the US Will Hinder
the Growth of the Gas Shales Sector 17
4.6 Unconventional Natural Gas Will
Account for the Majority of Natural Gas Supply and will be the Key Driver of
Natural Gas Production Growth in North America 17
5 Global Natural Gas
Exploration and Production Industry to 2016 19
5.1 Global Natural Gas
Reserves, 2009 19
5.2 Global Natural Gas Production To 2016 20
5.3
Global Natural Gas Production, Geographic Analysis 22
5.4 Global Natural
Gas Industry, Competitive Analysis 24
5.4.1 Asia Pacific 24
5.4.2
Europe 25
5.4.3 Middle East and Africa 26
5.4.4 North America 27
5.4.5 South and Central America 28
6 Global Natural Gas Pipelines Industry
to 2016 29
6.1 Global Natural Gas Pipeline Industry 29
6.2 Global
Natural Gas Pipeline Industry, Key Trends and Challenges 31
6.2.1 Growth
Of Unconventional Gas Is Expected To Drive The Growth Of Natural Gas Pipeline
Construction 31
6.2.2 Rise Of Resource Nationalism Is A Key Challenge For
The International Companies Attempting To Increase Their Presence In The
Region 31
6.3 Global Natural Gas Pipeline Industry, Geopolitical Scenario
32
6.4 Global Natural Gas Pipeline Industry, Geographic Analysis 32
6.4.1 Asia Pacific 32
6.4.2 Europe 34
6.4.3 Middle East and Africa
35
6.4.4 North America 36
6.4.5 South and Central America 37
6.5
Global Natural Gas Pipeline Industry, Competitive Analysis 38
6.5.1 Asia
Pacific 38
6.5.2 Europe 39
6.5.3 Middle East and Africa 41
6.5.4
North America 42
6.5.5 South and Central America 44
6.6 Global Major
Natural Gas Pipelines 45
6.6.1 Blue Stream Pipeline 45
6.6.2
GreenStream 45
6.6.3 Langeled 45
6.6.4 Nord Stream 45
6.6.5
Nabucco 46
6.6.6 Alaska Gas Pipeline 46
6.6.7 Rockies Express Pipeline
46
6.6.8 West East gas pipeline 46
6.6.9 Dolphin Project 46
6.6.10
West African Gas Pipeline 46
6.7 Global Planned Natural Gas Pipeline
Projects 46
6.7.1 Hugo Pipeline 46
6.7.2 Trans Saharan Gas pipeline
46
6.7.3 Nabucco Gas pipeline 47
6.7.4 South Stream 47
6.7.5 TAPI
Gas pipeline 47
6.7.6 Galsi Pipeline 47
7 Global LNG Industry to 2016
49
7.1 Global LNG Liquefaction and Regasification Capacity to 2016 49
7.1.1 Global LNG Regasification Capacity to 2016 49
7.1.2 Global LNG
Liquefaction Capacity to 2016 50
7.2 Global LNG Industry, Geographic
Analysis 52
7.2.1 Liquefaction and Regasification Capacity 52
7.3 Key
Trends in the Global LNG Industry 56
7.3.1 Increased Global LNG Supply
Leading To A Negative Outlook For The Industry 56
7.3.2 Asia Pacific
Region Emerging As an Important Region for LNG Trade Dynamics 56
7.4
Impact of the Growth in Unconventional Gas and Pipelines on the Global LNG
Industry 57
7.5 Global LNG Trade Movements 59
7.6 Global LNG Industry
- Capital Expenditure Analysis 61
7.7 Global Planned LNG Projects
62
7.8 Competitive Analysis, Global LNG Industry 63
8 Economics of
Transporting Gas through LNG and Pipeline 64
8.1 Comparison of
Transportation Cost from LNG versus Pipelines 64
8.1.1 Pipelaying 66
8.2 Liquefaction and Regasification Costs 66
8.3 LNG Transportation and
Storage Costs 67
8.4 LNG Pricing Mechanism 67
8.5 Projects Being
Delayed Due To Rise Of Unconventional Gas 69
9 Global Natural Gas Storage
Industry To 2016 70
9.1 Global Natural Gas Storage Industry to 2016 70
9.2 Key Trends, Issues and Challenges 72
9.2.1 Storage Will Keep a
Downward Pressure on Prices 72
9.2.2 Increase in Storage Capacity 72
9.3 Geographic Analysis of the Global Gas Storage Industry 72
9.3.1 Asia
Pacific 72
9.3.2 Europe 74
9.3.3 North America 75
9.3.4 South and
Central America 76
9.4 Global Natural Gas Storage Industry, Competitive
Analysis 77
9.4.1 North America 78
9.4.2 Asia Pacific 79
9.4.3
Europe 80
9.4.4 South and Central America 80
9.5 Global Planned Gas
Storage Projects to 2016 81
9.5.1 Asia Pacific 81
9.5.2 Europe 81
9.5.3 The Middle East and Africa 84
9.5.4 North America 84
10 Global
Natural Gas Consumption To 2016 86
10.1 Global Natural Gas Consumption,
2000-2016 86
10.2 Global, Natural Gas Consumption, Geographic
Analysis 87
10.3 Natural Gas Industry, End uses 89
10.3.1 Residential
Customers 89
10.3.2 Industrial Customers 89
10.3.3 Commercial
Customers 89
10.3.4 Transportation Customers 90
10.3.5 Electricity
Generation Customers 91
10.3.6 Distributed Generation 91
10.3.7 Fuel
Cells 92
11 Unconventional Natural Gas Industry 93
11.1 Overview of
the Unconventional Natural Gas Sector 93
11.1.1 Gas Shale 93
11.1.2
Coalbed Methane 98
11.1.3 Methane Hydrates 100
11.1.4 Tight Natural
Gas 101
11.1.5 Deep Natural Gas 102
11.2 Unconventional Natural Gas
Industry, Key Trends and Challenges 102
11.2.1 Increasing Attractiveness
Of Unconventional Resources Attracting Investments from Asian NOC’s
102
11.2.2 Technological Challenges Are A Major Challenge For The Shale
Gas Industry 103
11.2.3 Related Infrastructure Development Is A Key
Requirement For The Development Of Shale Gas Resources 103
11.2.4 Water
Contamination Is a Major Issue With The Development Of Shale Gas 103
11.2.5 Development of Unconventional Resources Requires the Development of The
Pipeline Industry 103
11.3 Unconventional Gas Changing The Global Natural
Gas Industry Dynamics 104
11.4 Impact of Increasing Unconventional Gas
Availability on LNG and Storage Industry 105
12 Appendix 106
12.1
Methodology 106
12.1.1 Coverage 106
12.1.2 Secondary Research 106
12.1.3 Primary Research 106
12.1.4 Expert Panel Validation 107
12.2
Abbreviations 107
12.3 Contact Us 107
12.4 About GBI Research 107
12.5 Disclaimer 107
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Natural Gas
Reserves, By Geographic Regions, Billion Cubic Feet, 2009 20
Table 2:
Natural Gas Production, Global (Bcf), 2000-2016 21
Table 3: Natural
Gas Production, Geographic Analysis (Bcf), 2000-2016 23
Table 4: Top
Ten Exploration Companies, Asia Pacific 2009 24
Table 5: Top Ten
Exploration Companies, Europe 2009 25
Table 6: Top Ten Exploration
Companies, Middle East and Africa 2009 26
Table 7: Top Ten Exploration
Companies, North America 2009 27
Table 8: Top Ten Exploration Companies,
South and Central America 2009 28
Table 9: Global, Natural Gas Pipeline
Length (Km), By Region, 2010 30
Table 10: Global Top Ten Countries,
Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 31
Table 11: Asia Pacific, Top
Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 33
Table 12: Europe, Top
Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 34
Table 13: Middle East
and Africa, Top Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 35
Table
14: North America, Top Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010
36
Table 15: South and Central America, Top Countries, Natural Gas
Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 37
Table 16: Asia Pacific, Top Companies,
Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 39
Table 17: Europe, Top Companies,
Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 40
Table 18: Middle East and
Africa, Top Companies, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 42
Table 19:
North America, Top Companies, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 43
Table 20: South and Central America, Top Companies, Natural Gas Pipeline
Length (Km), 2010 45
Table 21: Global, Major Planned Natural Gas
Pipelines, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), By Country, 2010 48
Table 22:
LNG Regasification Capacity, Global, Million Tonnes, 2000-2016 50
Table
23: LNG Liquefaction Capacity, Global, Million Tonnes, 2000-2016 51
Table
24: LNG Liquefaction Capacity, Global, By Geography, Million Tonnes, 2000-2016
54
Table 25: LNG Regasification Capacity, Global, By Geography, Million
Tonnes, 2000-2016 55
Table 26: LNG Trade Flow by Long-Term LNG Contracted
Capacity, Top 5 LNG Importers and Exporters, Million Tonnes, 2009 60
Table
27: LNG Regasification Capital Expenditure, Global, $ Bn, 2005-2010 61
Table 28: Comparative Analysis of Key Global LNG Planned Projects 62
Table
29: Month Wise LNG Import Prices by Source Countries, Japan, $/Tonne, 2009
68
Table 30: Month Wise LNG Import Prices by Source Countries, The US,
$/Tonne, 2009 68
Table 31: Gas Storage Capacity, Global, MMcf, 2009-2016
70
Table 32: Gas Storage Capacity, Top 5 Countries Globally, MMcf, 2009
71
Table 33: Gas Storage Capacity, Asia Pacific, MMcf, 2009 73
Table
34: Major Storage Sites, Asia Pacific 73
Table 35: Gas Storage Capacity,
Europe, Top Five Countries, MMcf, 2009 74
Table 36:: Top Strorage Sites in
Europe 75
Table 37: Gas Storage North America 76
Table 38: Top Storage
Sites in North America in MMcf 76
Table 39: Storage sites in South and
Central America (inMMcf) 76
Table 40: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, Global,
(MMcf) 77
Table 41: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, North America, (MMcf)
78
Table 42: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, Asia Pacific, (MMcf) 79
Table 43: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, Europe, (MMcf) 80
Table 44: Planned
Gas Storage Projects, Asia Pacific 81
Table 45: Planned Gas Storage
Projects, Europe 81
Table 46: Planned Gas Storage Projects, Middle East
and Africa 84
Table 47: Planned Gas Storage Projects, North America 84
Table 48: Natural Gas Consumption, Global, Bcf, 2000-2016 87
Table
49: Natural Gas Consumption, Geographic Analysis, Bcf, 2000-2016 88
Table 50: Shale gas production North America to 2016 (Bcf/d) 94
Table 51:
Major Shale Gas Plays, US, 2008 95
Table 52: Western Canada Gas Shale
Basin 96
Table 53: North America CBM production bcf/d 98
Table 54:
World Coal bed Methane Resources 100
Table 55: Tight gas production North
America 101
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: North America Natural
Gas Industry, Growth In Natural Gas Production, Bcf/d, 2008-2020 17
Figure
2: North America, Forecasted Natural Gas Production From Major Shale Plays,
2008-2020 18
Figure 3: Natural Gas Reserves, Global, Percentage Share of
Geographic Regions, 2009 19
Figure 4: Natural Gas Production, Global
(Bcf), 2000-2016 21
Figure 5: Natural Gas Production, Geographic
Analysis (Bcf), 2000-2016 22
Figure 6: Top Ten Exploration
Companies, Asia Pacific 2009 24
Figure 7: Top Ten Exploration Companies,
Europe 2009 25
Figure 8: Top Ten Exploration Companies, Middle East and
Africa 2009 26
Figure 9: Top Ten Exploration Companies, North America 2009
27
Figure 10: Top Ten Exploration Companies, South and Central America
2009 28
Figure 11: Global, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), By Region,
2010 29
Figure 12: Global Top Ten Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length
(Km), 2010 30
Figure 13: Asia Pacific, Top Countries, Natural Gas
Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 33
Figure 14: Europe, Top Countries, Natural
Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 34
Figure 15: Middle East and Africa, Top
Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 35
Figure 16: North
America, Top Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 36
Figure
17:South and Central America, Top Countries, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km),
2010 37
Figure 18: Asia Pacific, Top Companies, Natural Gas Pipeline
Length (Km), 2010 38
Figure 19: Europe, Top Companies, Natural Gas
Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 40
Figure 20:Middle East and Africa, Top
Companies, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 41
Figure 21: North
America, Top Companies, Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), 2010 43
Figure
22: South and Central America, Top Companies, Natural Gas Pipeline Length
(Km), 2010 44
Figure 23: Global, Major Planned Natural Gas Pipelines,
Natural Gas Pipeline Length (Km), By Country, 2010 47
Figure 24: LNG
Regasification Capacity, Global, Million Tonnes, 2000-2016 49
Figure 25:
LNG Liquefaction Capacity, Global, Million Tonnes, 2000-2016 51
Figure 26:
LNG Liquefaction Capacity, Global, By Geography, Million Tonnes, 2000-2016
54
Figure 27: LNG Regasification Capacity, Global, By Geography, Million
Tonnes, 2000-2016 55
Figure 28: LNG Regasification Capital Expenditure,
Global, $ Bn, 2005-2010 61
Figure 29: Gas Storage Capacity, Global,
MMcf, 2009-2016 70
Figure 30: Gas Storage Capacity, Top 5 Countries
Globally, MMcf, 2009 71
Figure 31: Gas Storage Capacity, Asia Pacific,
Percentage Share, 2009 72
Figure 32: Gas Storage Capacity, Europe, Top
Five Countries, Percentage Share, 2009 74
Figure 33: Gas Storage Capacity
North America (MMcf) 75
Figure 34: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, Global,
(MMcf) 77
Figure 35: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, North America, (MMcf)
78
Figure 36: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, Asia Pacific, (MMcf) 79
Figure 37: Top 5 Gas Storage Companies, Europe, (MMcf) 80
Figure 38:
Natural Gas Consumption, Global, Bcf, 2000-2016 86
Figure 39:
Natural Gas Consumption, Geographic Analysis, Bcf, 2000-2016 88
Figure 40: Shale Gas Reserves, The US, 2008 96
Figure 41: Shale Gas
Reserves in Canada 97
Figure 42: European Shale gas 97
Figure 43: Coal
bed methane in US 99
Figure 44: Global Estimated Methane Hydrates Reserves
100
Figure 45: Tight natural gas North America 102
