Abstract
Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to Drive Future
Developments in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Market
The report provides in-depth analysis of the global solar thermal market and
provides forecast estimates up to 2020. The research analyzes the key trends,
major issues and growth opportunities in the global solar thermal market. The
report contains in depth analysis of the key countries and provides forecast
estimates up to 2020. The research analyzes the key trends, drivers, major
issues and growth opportunities in the key countries. The report also gives
insights on market development of solar thermal in emerging markets. The
report provides detailed analysis on the technology trends and cost break up
for solar thermal. Information on the regulatory framework and key policies
governing the industry has also been dealt with in detail. Elaborate profiling
of major industry participants coupled with detailed analysis of important
news and deals provide a comprehensive understanding of the global solar
thermal market.
Green Stimulus: A Crucial Support to Renewable Energy
Global carbon emissions have become a central focus of developed nations in
attaining the twin goals of energy security and sustainability. In order to
achieve this twin target of security and sustainability, there is an acute
need to produce energy from the sustainable sources such as wind, solar,
geothermal and biomass.
The global financial crisis has provided opportunities to governments to move
forward in altering the present energy generation mix. The financial stimulus
packages announced by the major developed nations have allotted almost $512
billion to green energy. On the basis of announced stimulus packages to 31st
March 2009, the observation can be drawn that the Asian nations, especially
China, have contributed the most to the green energy projects. South Korea has
allotted the maximum amount to the green energy, followed by China.
Global Solar Thermal Market - Impressive Growth in Installations from
2010 Onward
Global Solar Thermal market was concentrated in the US only till Spain joined
in 2007. Since 2007, the sector has broadened its geographical reach and
Australia and Morocco has also started the solar thermal plants. Due to the
high energy efficiency, the technology is gathering the interest of the other
nations with the planned projects coming online from 2010.
Global solar thermal cumulative installed capacity has grown from 354 MW
(Megawatts) in 2001 to 697 MW in 2009 at a CAGR of 9% per annum. However, the
planned projects that are coming online from 2010 onwards are anticipated to
accelerate the CAGR to 46% per annum during 2010 to 2020. In 2020, the solar
thermal power capacity is expected to reach at 122,252 MW from 2,715 MW in
2010.
The annual installations capacity is expected to witness a big surge in the
coming decade, primarily due to the significant capacity additions in the US
and Spain. Additionally, the capacity addition will be supported, as many
other countries like Australia, China, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Algeria
and Italy are coming up with the CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) projects.
Global Solar Thermal Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, MW, 2001-2020
Source: GBI Research
The US Solar Thermal Market - Large Scale Projects to Boost Installed
Capacity
The US solar thermal market grew at a CAGR of 2% per annum from 2001 to 2009.
However, the government encouragement for the sector is expected to lift CAGR
to astonishing levels of 46% per annum for the period 2010 to 2020. The
installations are expected to pick up pace as high capacity plants come online
during the period.
California is expected to lead the CSP installations with almost nine projects
with a capacity of more than 500 MW expected to come online during the period
of which one project is having capacity of 1,000 MW. The sector growth will
continue to be robust till 2020 as the RPS (Renewable Portfolio Standards)
targets for the states will continue encouraging solar thermal power
generation in the country.
Utilities Owned Projects - A Strategic Driver of CSP Installations
The utilities in the US are on a new endeavor that will act as a catalyst for
the Solar Thermal Market installations. The utilities are considering the
option to establish own solar thermal facility with grid connectivity in order
to lure benefit of the extended ITC to the industry and hedging volatile
energy prices scenario. Unlike Solar PV system, Solar Thermal technology has
higher efficiency and higher potential to generate the base load power
provided sufficient back up and storage facility.
During 2009, installations on the Utility side of the meter grew more than two
and half time from the previous year. In 2008, the utilities side of meter was
around 18 MW that reached to 65MW in 2009. By 2016 an estimated 16 GW plants
are anticipated to come in service largely supported by the large scale
installations and extension of PTC and ITC to the solar sector.
Spanish Solar Thermal Market - Envisions Bright Future through 2020
With the strong government backing to the CSP technology, the installed
capacity is expected to leap during 2010 to 2020. The CSP installations are
expected to cumulate at 44,515 MW in 2020 from 891 MW in 2010.
In 2010, the installed capacity is expected to increase more than three and
half times as almost 13 50 MW projects are expected to be operated in the
country. By 2011, the installations are expected to double from the levels of
2010, largely contributed by the installations of almost 27 50 MW plants.
Despite the regulatory cap on installations and the registry system in the
country, installations are expected to surge, largely due to favorable feed-in
tariffs. In light of the ambitious plans of the Spanish government to adhere
to EU 2020 agenda, the Spanish CSP sector envisions bright future.
Asia and the Middle East - Future Hot Spots for CSP Market
The cumulative installation capacity in the hotspot destinations for the solar
thermal market is anticipated to reach nearly 9,000 GWh, representing 7% of
the global installed capacity in 2020. Among the destinations, the highest
share (on a global basis) will be occupied by Australia (2.73%), UAE (1.69%),
India (0.98%) and China (0.82%). By 2020, the overall cumulative installed
capacity in these nations is projected to increase at a CAGR of 37% per annum
from 2010 to 2020.
With the increase in the installations the power generation from the CSP
technology in the emerging destinations is expected to grow at a CAGR of 42%
during 2010 to 2020. The power generation in 2020 is expected to total at
35,096 GWh in these nations up from 1,035 MW in 2010.
Solar Thermal Power Market Forecast to 2020 - Utilities to Drive Future
Developments in the Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Market
Summary
The report provides in-depth analysis of the global solar thermal market and
provides forecast estimates up to 2020. The research analyzes the key trends,
major issues and growth opportunities in the global solar thermal market. The
report contains in depth analysis of the key countries and provides forecast
estimates up to 2020. The research analyzes the key trends, drivers, major
issues and growth opportunities in the key countries. The report also gives
insights on market development of solar thermal in emerging markets. The
report provides detailed analysis on the technology trends and cost break up
for solar thermal. Information on the regulatory framework and key policies
governing the industry has also been dealt with in detail. Elaborate profiling
of major industry participants coupled with detailed analysis of important
news and deals provide a comprehensive understanding of the global solar
thermal market.
Scope
- The Report provides detailed analysis of the market scenario and growth
forecasts up to 2020
- It provides detailed analysis of key countries
namely the US, Spain and Australia
- Growth projections up to 2020 for
key regions such as the US, Spain and Australia are provided in the report
- Elaborate profiles of key market participants are detailed
- The
report covers policy and regulatory framework governing the market
-
Updated news and deals pertaining to the market is covered
Reasons to buy
- Identify key growth and investment opportunities in the global solar thermal
market
- Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the
industry’s growth potential
- Understand and respond to your
competitors’ business structure, strategy and prospects
-
Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data, deal
analysis and recent developments
- Develop strategies based on the latest
operational and regulatory events
- Do deals with an understanding of the
mergers and partnerships that have shaped the market
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 3
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 6
2
Introduction 7
2.1 Global Carbon Emission, Overview 7
2.2 Green
stimulus: A crucial support to the Renewable Energy 9
3 Solar Thermal
Power - An introduction to technology 11
3.1 Parabolic Trough System
11
3.2 Solar Tower System 12
3.3 Parabolic Dish System 13
3.4
Linear Fresnel Reflectors 13
4 Global Solar Thermal Market 14
4.1
Overview 14
4.2 Global Solar Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW,
2001-2020 14
4.3 Global Solar Thermal Market, Power Generation, MW,
2001-2020 17
4.4 Global Solar Thermal Market, Installed Capacities by
country, 2009 19
5 Key Drivers and Challenges of the Solar Thermal Market
20
5.1 Key Drivers 20
5.1.1 Government support - a key
determinant 20
5.1.2 Renewable Portfolio Standards - a CSP market
catalyst 20
5.1.3 Financial Support - Booster for CSP investment
20
5.2 Key Challenges in the Solar Thermal Market 21
5.2.1 Grid
Connectivity - a serious concern 21
5.2.2 Plant Cooling Requirements
- Reducing Power Generation 21
6 Global Solar Thermal Market, Cost
trends 22
6.1 Large scale installations to benefit through Economies of
Scale 22
6.2 Investment cost to decline in long term 22
6.3 Aluminum
Solar Trough Technology - A Step Forward to Reduce Solar Field cost
22
6.4 Power generation cost to decline 22
7 The US Solar Thermal
Market - 2001 to 2020 23
7.1 Overview 23
7.2 The US Solar
Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001-2020 23
7.3 The US Solar
Thermal Market, Power Generation, GWh, 2001-2020 25
8 The US Solar Thermal
Market, Utilities Trends, 2009 27
8.1 Utilities Owned Projects - A
strategic driver of CSP installations 27
8.2 Utilities Eyeing CSP Plants
with Storage Backup 28
8.3 Building and up gradation of New Transmission
Lines 28
9 The US Solar Thermal Market - Regulatory framework 29
9.1 The US Renewable Energy Market - Major Policies 29
9.1.1
Overview 29
9.1.2 Federal Financial Incentives 29
9.1.3 State
incentive Programs 33
9.2 The US Solar Thermal Power, Regulatory Framework
- Major policies 35
9.2.1 The Solar America Initiative (SAI) 35
9.2.2 Investment Tax Credit 35
9.2.3 The US Solar Thermal, Financial
Incentives, State Wise 35
10 Spain Solar Thermal Market, 2001-2020 41
10.1 Overview 41
10.2 Spain Solar Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW,
2001-2020 41
10.3 Spain Solar Thermal Market, Power Generation, GWh,
2001-2020 43
10.4 Spain Renewable Market, Regulatory Framework, Major
Policies 44
10.4.1 Overview 44
10.4.2 Spain Renewable Market, Major
Policies 44
10.5 Spain Solar Thermal Market, Regulatory Framework, Major
Initiatives 46
10.5.1 Overview 46
10.5.2 Spain Solar Thermal Market,
Major Regulations 46
10.5.3 Implications of New Subsidy Regime in Spanish
CSP Market 47
11 Future Hot Spot for the Solar Thermal Market, 2010 to
2020 49
11.1 Overview 49
11.2 Solar Thermal Market, Future hot spots,
Installed Capacity, Country Wise, MW, 2010 to 2020 49
11.3 Solar Thermal
Market, Future Hot Spots, Power Generation, country wise, GWh, 2010 to 2020
51
12 Global Solar Thermal Market, Financial Deals, 2009-2010 53
12.1
Deals volume versus Deal Value Analysis, 2009-2010 53
12.2 Global Solar
Thermal Market, Deals by Type, 2009 54
12.3 Global Solar Thermal Market,
Major Deals, 2009-2010 56
12.3.1 Enel Completes Rights Offering Of $10
Billion 56
12.3.2 Solar Trust Of America Announces Project Financing Of
$6,000 Million For Solar Thermal Power Plants, U.S. 58
12.3.3 Iberdrola
Completes Debt Offering Of 5-Year Bonds for $1,894.83 Million 59
12.3.4
Enel Completes Private Placement Of 5.125% Senior Notes Due 2019 for $1.75
Billion 60
12.3.5 Eskom Holdings to Invest $805 Million in Upington Solar
Power Plant, South Africa 61
12.3.6 Siemens Acquires 63% Stake in Solel
Solar Systems 62
12.3.7 Siemens Energy Acquires Additional 17% Interest in
Archimede Solar Energy 63
12.3.8 AREVA Acquires 100% Interest In Ausra
64
12.3.9 BrightSource Energy Announces Project financing of $1.37 billion
for Ivanpah Solar Thermal Plant in California, the US 65
12.3.10 JSC
Atomenergoprom Completes Bond Offering for $1,713.56 Million 66
13
Appendix 67
13.1 List of Abbreviation 67
13.2 Methodology 67
13.2.1 Coverage 68
13.2.2 Secondary Research 68
13.2.3 Primary
Research 68
13.2.4 Expert Panel Validation 69
13.3 Contact Us 69
13.4 Disclaimer 69
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Global CO2
Emissions, Million Metric Tons, 2001-2009 8
Table 2: Global Green
Stimulus packages by major countries, Amount ($bn) and % share of total
stimulus, 2009 10
Table 3: Capital Cost Break up of Solar Trough System, %
Share of Total Cost, 2009 12
Table 4: Capital Cost Break up of Solar Tower
System, % Share of Total Cost, 2009 13
Table 5: Global Solar Thermal
Market, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001-2020 16
Table 6: Global Solar Thermal
Power Generation, GWh, 2001-2020 18
Table 7: Global Solar Thermal Market,
Installed Capacity by Country, % Share, 2009 19
Table 8: The US Solar
Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001-2020 24
Table 9: The US Solar
Thermal Market, Power Generation, GWh, 2001-2020 26
Table 10: The US Solar
Thermal Market, Proposed Cumulative Capacity Additions by Top Utilities, MW,
2010 to 2016 28
Table 11: The US, State Renewables Portfolio Standards and
Policy Incentives, 2010 34
Table 12: Spanish Solar Thermal Market.
Installed Capacity, MW, 2001-2020 42
Table 13: Spanish Solar Power Market,
Power Generation, GWh, 2001-2020 43
Table 14: Spanish Solar Market,
Feed-in Tariffs, € / kWh, 2007-2008 46
Table 15: Spanish Solar
Market, New Feed-in Tariff, € / kWh, 2009 47
Table 16: Spanish
Solar Market, Tax Rebate, By Year, 2008-2010 47
Table 17: Global Solar
Thermal Market, Hotspot Destinations, Installed Capacity, MW, 2010 to 2020
50
Table 18: Global Solar Thermal Market, Hot Spot Destinations, Power
Generation, GWh, 2010 to 2020 52
Table 19: Global Solar Thermal Market,
Deal Volume versus Deal Value ($m) Analysis, 2004-2009 53
Table 20: Global
Solar Thermal Market, Deal Volume by type, % share of total, 2009 54
Table
21: Global Solar Thermal Market, Deal Value by type, % share of total, 2009
55
Table 22: Enel Completes Rights Offering Of $10 Billion 56
Table
23: Solar Trust Of America Announces Project Financing Of $6,000 Million
58
Table 24: Iberdrola Completes Debt Offering Of 5-Year Bonds For
$1,894.83 Million 59
Table 25: Enel Completes Private Placement Of 5.125%
Senior Notes Due 2019 For $1.75 Billion 60
Table 26: Eskom Holdings To
Invest $805 Million In Upington Solar Power Plant, South Africa 61
Table
27: Siemens Acquires 63% Stake In Solel Solar Systems 62
Table 28: Siemens
Energy Acquires Additional 17% Interest In Archimede Solar Energy 63
Table
29: AREVA Acquires 100% Interest In Ausra 64
Table 30: BrightSource Energy
Announces Project Financing Of $1.37 billion for Ivanpah Plant 65
Table
31: JSC Atomenergoprom Completes Bond Offering For $1,713.56 Million 66
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Global CO2 Emissions, Million Metric
Tons, 2001-2009 7
Figure 2: Global Green Stimulus packages by major
countries, Amount and % share of total stimulus, 2009 9
Figure 3: Capital
Cost Break Down of Solar Trough Systems, % Share of Total Cost ,2009 11
Figure 4: Capital Cost Break up of Solar Tower System, % share of Total Cost ,
2009 12
Figure 5: Global Solar Thermal Market, Cumulative Installed
Capacity, MW, 2001-2020 15
Figure 6: Global Solar Thermal Power
Generation, GWh, 2001-2020 17
Figure 7: Global Solar Thermal Market,
Installed Capacity by Country, % share, 2009 19
Figure 8: The US Solar
Thermal Market, Installed Capacity, MW, 2001-2020 24
Figure 9: The US
Solar Thermal Market, Power Generation, GWh, 2001-2020 25
Figure 10:The US
Solar Thermal Market, Proposed Cumulative Capacity Additions by Top
Utilities, MW, 2010 to 2016 27
Figure 11: Spanish Solar Thermal Market.
Installed Capacity, MW, 2001-2020 41
Figure 12: Spanish Solar Power
Market, Power Generation, GWh, 2001-2020 43
Figure 13: Global Solar
Thermal Market, Hotspot Destinations, Installed Capacity, MW, 2010 to 2020
50
Figure 14: Global Solar Thermal Market, Hot Spot Destinations, Power
Generation, GWh, 2010 to 2020 51
Figure 15: Global Solar Thermal Market,
Deal Volume versus Deal Value ($m) Analysis, 2004-2009 53
Figure 16:
Global Solar Thermal Market, Deal Volume by type, % share of total, 2009
54
Figure 17: Global Solar Thermal Market, Deal Value by type, % share
of total, 2009 55
Figure 18: GBI Research Methodology 67
