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市場調查報告書

產消者的興起

Rise of the Prosumer

出版商 Frost & Sullivan 商品編碼 326447
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 58 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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產消者的興起 Rise of the Prosumer
出版日期: 2015年03月20日 內容資訊: 英文 58 Pages
簡介

隨著再生能源和分散式發電技術用投資額的擴大,全球各國產消者 (同時進行能源的生產和消費之消費者) 正在興起。一般認為今後5年由於能源管理解決方案·智慧電網·能源儲存解決方案等的開發,及相關法制的建立等,產消者相關市場將維持擴大的趨勢。此外由於能源相關的產業結構內部產消者的興起·擴大,傳統能源產業的經營模式一般認為將會結束。

本報告提供全球能源市場上產消者興起的主要推動因素,及今後對能源整體市場的影響度,各個技術領域的活用方法·影響度,具體案例 (案例研究) 等調查、考察。

摘要整理

  • 主要調查結果
  • CEO的主要的全方位的見解
  • 3個主要的預測
  • 相關調查

產消者概要

  • 公共事業模式從集中型模式慢慢進化成分散式模式,這促進了終端用戶的參與
  • 產消者所生產的能量,自給自足所需的量,及受電力網一體化能力所左右
  • 大部分現有的產消者,屬於進化曲線中的「大體上可自給自足」階段
  • 產消者:推動因素與阻礙因素
  • 產消者的發展方面,實現性的最高方案:技術·規定扮演重要角色
  • 美國·澳洲·德國·法國:提供富有魅力的市場機會關係到促進產消者的成長
  • 歐洲各國對節能·氣候變動的持續性配合措施,關係到市場的成長

主要的實現要素

  • 關係到促進產消者成長的主要實現要素

分散式能源的擴大

  • 再生能源·熱電聯產(CHP)·分散式發電技術:對產消者興起有重大貢獻
  • 由於太陽能投資擴大,促進全球可再生/分散式能源市場成長
  • 再生能源:產消者興起的主要推動因素
  • 由於技術性效率的提升,大幅度削減了太陽能光電的發電成本

LCOE (平準化發電成本)/市電平價

  • 由於再生能源費用的減少,產消者服務的吸引力大增
  • 為了提高對產消者的吸引力、LCOE必需低於傳統能源價格,或是至少相等
  • 太陽能光電發電模組的價格下降,及全球各國引進的淨計量政策,可能降低LCOE
  • 小規模的太陽能光電發電還沒達到到市電平價,但透過優待稅制·津貼等支持下正在急速趕上

零售電力價格

  • 產消者:價值主張
  • 高額的零售電力價格,對產消者的成長來說非常富有魅力

相關法規/法規

  • 合作性的法規·政策:全球各國的產消者成長的主要成功因素
  • 美國的法規當局,只要沒有對公共事業企業的報酬,就不可能擁有許可大量連接電力網

電表

  • 智慧電表:對產消者的再生能源有效整合上是不可或缺的
  • 生產量·消費量的正確追蹤:產消者成長的關鍵

儲能

  • 儲能費用,能成為這個發展中市場改變遊戲規則者
  • 透過分散式儲能 (家用儲能,電動車活用為儲存單位等)促進成長
  • 儲能對產消者的興起而言是重要的成功因素
  • 美國和東北亞主導儲能的投資,尤其是中國的市場成長率特高

經營模式及案例研究

  • 混合模式:虛擬發電廠·分散式系統操作員·技術零售業者的組合
  • 混合型產消者·公共事業·模式:目前預測商業化最確實且快速的手法
  • 案例研究:電力購買契約(PPA)- 對混合型產消者而言富有魅力的投資模式
  • 案例研究:屋頂租賃 - 公共事業企業,參加產消者·公共事業·模式所需的技術

結論

  • 法規措施和儲存解決方案,是促進產消者成長的重大因素
  • 免責聲明

關於Frost&Sullivan

目錄
Product Code: 9AAE-00-18-00-00

Investments in Distributed Renewable Generation will Power a Prosumer-driven Energy Model

Prosumers (customers who both produce and consume energy) are on the rise globally, as investment in renewables and distributed generation technologies increase. Enabled by smart energy management solutions, smart grids, energy storage solutions, and supportive legislation, the next 5 years will see strong growth in related markets, as well as disruption to the traditional energy business models due to increased penetration of prosumers in the energy value chain. The study details the various drivers for the growth of prosumers along with their discussions. It also provides the three big predictions, entailing the trends witnessed in the market.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • 1. Key Findings
  • 2. Key CEO 360 Degree Perspectives
  • 3. Three Big Predictions
  • 4. Relevant Research

Overview of Prosumers

  • 1. Utility Models have Gradually Evolved from a Centralised to a Decentralised Model, Encouraging End User Participation
  • 2. The Amount of Energy Produced by a Prosumer is Driven by its Need for Self-sufficiency and its Ability of Grid Integration
  • 3. Most of the Existing Prosumers Fall into the 'Predominant Self-consumption' Phase of the Evolution Curve
  • 4. Prosumers-Drivers and Restraints
  • 5. Likeliest Scenario for Development of Prosumers See Technology and Regulation Playing Key Roles
  • 6. The United States, Australia, Germany, and France Offer Attractive Opportunities for Driving the Growth of Prosumers
  • 7. The European Countries Remain Committed to Energy Efficiency and Climate Change, Driving Growth

Key Enablers

  • 1. Key Enablers Driving Growth of Prosumers
  • 2. Key Enablers Driving Growth of Prosumers (continued)

Growth in Decentralised Energy

  • 1. Renewables, CHP, and Distributed Generation Technology have Largely Contributed to the Rise of Prosumers
  • 2. Increased Solar Investment Drives Global Growth in Renewable and Decentralised Energy
  • 3. Renewable Energy has Been a Key Driver for the Rise of Prosumers
  • 4. With Increased Technological Efficiency, the Cost of Generating Solar Energy has Decreased Significantly

Levelised Cost of Electricity/Grid Parity

  • 1. Decline in Renewable Costs Makes Prosumer Offering More Attractive
  • 2. LCOE Should be Lower than or at Least Comparable to Conventional Energy to be Attractive for Prosumers
  • 3. Price Reduction of PV Modules and Net Metering Policies Adopted Globally are Likely to Reduce LCOE
  • 4. Small Scale PV is Not Yet at Grid Parity but is Catching Up Quickly, Supported by Tax Credits and Incentives

Retail Electricity Price

  • 1. Prosumers-Value Proposition
  • 2. High Retail Electricity Price is Very Attractive for Prosumer Growth

Supportive Regulation/Legislation

  • 1. Supportive Regulations and Policies are Key Enablers for Prosumer Growth Globally
  • 2. Regulators in the US are Unlikely to Let Mass Access to the Grid Without Utility Compensation

Metering

  • 1. Smart Meters are Crucial for Effective Integration of Renewable Electricity by the Prosumers
  • 2. Accurately Tracking Production and Consumption is Key to the Growth of Prosumers

Energy Storage

  • 1. Energy Storage Costs will be a Game Changer in this Developing Market
  • 2. Distributed Energy Storage Such as Home Energy Storage and Electric Vehicles as Storage Unit will Drive Growth
  • 3. Energy Storage is Predicted to Become an Increasingly Important Enabler for the Rise of Prosumers
  • 4. US and North East Asia Lead Investments in Energy Storage, While China is a High Growth Market

Business Models and Case Studies

  • 1. Hybrid Models are a Combination of Virtual Power Plants, Distribution System Operators, and Technology Retailers
  • 2. Hybrid Prosumer Utility Models are Currently Thought to be the Best and Fastest at Achieving Commercialisation
  • 3. Case Study-Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are an Attractive Investment Model for Hybrid Prosumers
  • 4. Case Study-Leasing Rooftops will Enable Utilities to Participate in the Prosumer Utility Model

Conclusions

  • 1. Regulatory Actions and Storage Solutions are Crucial Factors Driving Growth of Prosumers
  • 2. Legal Disclaimer

The Frost & Sullivan Story

  • 1. The Frost & Sullivan Story
  • 2. Value Proposition-Future of Your Company & Career
  • 3. Global Perspective
  • 4. Industry Convergence
  • 5. 360° Research Perspective
  • 6. Implementation Excellence
  • 7. Our Blue Ocean Strategy
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