本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。
Abstract
Having recovered from the effects of 9/11 in 2001, SARS outbreak in 2002, and
Iraq war in 2003, the commercial aerospace industry is back on the growth track
with many aerospace companies witnessing improved sales and profits during the
first nine months of 2004 compared to the same period in 2003. Although aircraft
orders are still to match the peak levels of 2000-2001, global economic
recovery, stock market perception, and regulatory items are creating new
opportunities for aerospace companies. Stricter security standards have led to
growth in certain aerospace segments such as explosive detectives, training, and
simulation. Available seat miles (ASMs), revenue passenger miles (RPMs), and
passenger load factor (PLF) are also showing strong year-over-year growth,
thereby reflecting the current health of the airlines industry.
Frost & Sullivans Aerospace Financial Benchmarking and Analysis (FBA)
service presents a broad outline of the aerospace industry, highlighting major
market and financial trends in key growth segments. It supports all investment
and financial analysis needs of decision makers for the above segments, and
provides a comprehensive financial analysis of leading U.S. aerospace firms. The
current study focuses on four key growth segments of commercial aerospace,
namely, business jets, fractional ownership, maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO),
and avionics.
Business Jets Expected to be Part of the High-Margin Segment
Business jets are emerging as one of the most lucrative segments in the
aerospace industry and are expected to grow by 11 percent in the next 3-6 months
(4Q04-1Q05). "Executives in business jet companies forecast a brighter
future in the next 4-5 quarters largely driven by fractional ownership,
improvement in economy, accelerated bonus depreciation, and steady stock
markets," observes the analyst of this research.
The phenomenal growth in business aviation can be attributed to superior
connectivity made possible through 5,300 airports in the United States compared
to the 558 served by commercial airlines. In order to cash in on this trend,
business jet makers are aggressively launching new aircraft models tailored to
suit different needs. Fractional ownership (FO) has also contributed to the
success of business aircraft, particularly in the past 3-5 years. Although the
overdependence on fractional programs is gradually declining, most big business
jet makers continue to have majority of their orders coming in from FO
providers.
Fractional Ownership and Third-Party MRO Show Potential for Growth
The FO and MRO segments are expected to grow by more than 15 percent in
2004-2005. FO has a great future and more than 50 percent of orders and backlogs
with aircraft manufacturers are estimated to be accounted for by FO companies.
The 25-hour flying time packages recently offered by FO companies are also
attracting more number of domestic first class passengers.
Independent MRO shops are also thriving as outsourcing gains popularity due
to changing dynamics in the airline industry. "The independent MRO shops
enjoy a considerable cost advantage over the captive shops in many of the
leading airlines," says the analyst. "Moreover, the emergence of
low-cost carriers that prefer to outsource most of their non-core activities has
also contributed significantly to growth of third-party MRO business."
Frost & Sullivan Growth Partnership Service
Based on extensive and in-depth research, real-world consulting work, and new
theories tested in hundreds of companies across many industries, Frost &
Sullivan has evolved its Growth Partnership Services (GPS) program that provides
established and emerging firms with powerful growth visions. Moving beyond token
mission statements, GPS provides an actionable vision to growth consulting
partners by illustrating how key intelligence and strategic research based on
defined goals can guide day-to-day behavior and overall company direction. The
foundation of Frost & Sullivans GPS includes:
- Assisting companies to reach their full potential in the core business
- Providing growth strategies to help companies expand into related
businesses
- Preemptively redefining the core business during market turbulence
- Applying the Frost & Sullivan framework to identify and address common
mistakes resulting from misaligned corporate strategies
- Recommending growth management strategies through continuous partnership
To maximize the potential for growth within a firms internal and external
environment, Frost & Sullivan consultants can facilitate the creation of
strategic programs that deliver improved market success. Frost & Sullivans
strengths lie in combining strategic understanding with market expertise and
applying these with absolute commitment to its clients growth.
Table of Contents
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Executive Summary
2 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
Introduction and Methodology
3 INDUSTRY FUNDAMENTALS AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES
Market Overview and Industry Fundamentals
- Introduction
- Highlights of Industry Fundamentals
Analysis of Selected Growth Sectors
- Business Jet Market
- Fractional Ownership Market
- Commercial MRO Market
- Commercial Avionics Market
4 FINANCIAL BENCHMARKING
Frost & Sullivan Growth Monitor
- Frost & Sullivan Aerospace Growth Monitor
Industry Profitability
- Income Statement Analysis
- Profitability Ratios
- Fixed Cost Analysis
5 VALUATION
Frost & Sullivan Aerospace Universe
Frost & Sullivan Aerospace Index
Company Analysis
- Stock Performance
- Valuation Multiples
