全球潤滑油市場（2012年及2017年產業預測）

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Abstract

Global demand to increase 1.6% per year through 2012

World lubricant demand will increase 1.6 percent per year to 40.5 million metric tons in 2012. Growth will be aided by the ongoing expansion of the world motor vehicle park, as well as by a rebound in manufacturing and other industrial activity from the global economic slowdown of 2008 and 2009. Advances will be strongest in the Asia/Pacific region due to ongoing rapid industrialization as well as rising car ownership rates. Both of these trends will also favor healthy growth in the Africa/Mideast region and Latin America. Meanwhile, the greater availability of advanced, high performance lubricants, greater global competition and increasingly stringent environmental rules will result in reduced or negative growth in lubricant demand in the more developed countries of North America and Western Europe, as well as in Eastern Europe and Japan.

China, India to lead growth in developing countries

Despite the downturn in the global motor vehicle market in late 2008 and early 2009, motor vehicle lubricant demand will continue to expand throughout the forecast period. Increases in lubricant demand will be led by strong gains in the Asia/Pacific region due to rapid expansion of the motor vehicle park in developing countries such as China and India. Healthy growth will also occur in Latin America and the Africa/Mideast region, while advances in Eastern Europe will be below average. However, a trend toward increased drain intervals, influenced in part by the growing availability of superior, high performance synthetic lubricants, will result in declining demand in Western Europe as well as below average growth in North America.

While the fastest growth will be in manufacturing and other markets, it will still represent a slowdown from the 2002 to 2007 period as the global economic slowdown of 2008 and 2009 restrains upward advances in lubricant demand through 2012. The Asia/Pacific region, led by China, will continue to be the primary driver of growth in these markets due to companies worldwide pursuing the region' s key advantages of relatively low labor costs and political stability. Latin America and the Africa/Mideast region will also achieve near or above average growth, respectively, in manufacturing as significant countries in both regions continue to develop their industrial bases.

Engine oils will remain dominant, process oils to exhibit fastest growth

In terms of product types, engine oils will continue to account for the greatest share of lubricant demand going forward. This will primarily reflect the importance of transportation in an increasingly global economy, both from a consumer and commercial perspective. The fastest gains will be achieved in process oils due to the greater difficulty of boosting consumption efficiency of these lubricants relative to hydraulic and metalworking fluids, both of which will experience below average gains as companies everywhere work to reduce unit consumption in an effort to maintain competitiveness.

Despite the slow growth in hydraulic and metalworking fluids, significant value opportunities will still exist for the introduction of new, higher performance oils, and/or more environmentally friendly fluids that meet the increasingly strict regulations found in developed countries. This will be reflected in the above average advances in nonconventional lubricant demand going forward, even as traditional petroleum-based lubricant demand continues to expand as well.

Study coverage

This new Freedonia industry study, World Lubricants presents historic demand data (1997, 2002, 2007) plus forecasts (2012, 2017) by market, product and formulation for six regions and 31 countries worldwide. The study also assesses market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles 30 global players.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT

• General
• World Population Outlook
• World Economic Outlook
  • Recent Economic Performance
  • Macroeconomic Outlook
• World Manufacturing Outlook
• World Fixed Investment Overview
• World Motor Vehicle Outlook
  • World Motor Vehicle Park
  • World Motor Vehicle Production
• Motor Vehicle Design Technology
  • Gasoline Engines
  • Diesel Engines
• World Oil Industry Outlook
  • World Crude Oil Production
  • World Refined Petroleum Products Production
• Environmental & Regulatory Trends
• Lubricant Standards & Testing

III. OVERVIEW

• General
• World Lubricant Demand by Region
• World Lubricant Demand by Formulation
  • Petroleum Lubricants
  • Nonconventional Lubricants
    • Synthetic Lubricants
    • Re-Refined Lubricants
    • Vegetable-Based Lubricants
• World Lubricant Demand by Product
  • Engine Oils
  • Process Oils
  • Hydraulic Fluids
  • Metalworking Fluids
  • Other Lubricants
• World Lubricant Demand by Market
  • Motor Vehicle Aftermarket
  • Manufacturing
  • Other
• World Base Oil Trends
• Lubricant Production & Trade

IV. NORTH AMERICA

• North America: General
• North America: Markets & Products
• United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• North America: Market Share

V. WESTERN EUROPE

• Western Europe: General
• Western Europe: Markets & Products
• Germany
• France
• Italy
• United Kingdom
• Spain
• Other Western Europe
  • Netherlands
  • Belgium
  • All Other Western Europe
• Western Europe: Market Share

VI. ASIA/PACIFIC

• Asia/Pacific: General
• Asia/Pacific: Markets & Products
• China
• Japan
• India
• South Korea
• Indonesia
• Thailand
• Australia
• Other Asia/Pacific
  • Taiwan
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • All Other Asia/Pacific
• Asia/Pacific Market Share

VII. OTHER REGIONS

• Latin America
• Latin America: General
• Latin America: Markets & Products
• Brazil
• Other Latin America
  • Argentina
  • Venezuela
  • All Other Latin America
• Latin America: Market Share
• Eastern Europe
• Eastern Europe: General
• Eastern Europe: Markets & Products
• Russia
• Other Eastern Europe
  • Poland
  • Ukraine
  • All Other Eastern Europe
• Eastern Europe: Market Share
• Africa/Mideast
• Africa/Mideast: General
• Africa/Mideast: Markets & Products
• Iran
• Other Africa/Mideast
  • Turkey
  • Egypt
  • Saudi Arabia
  • South Africa
  • All Other Africa/Mideast
• Africa/Mideast: Market Share

VIII. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

• General
• Industry Composition
• Lubricant Market Share
• Competitive Strategies
• Merger & Acquisition Activity
• Strategic Partnerships
• Refining & Blending
• Marketing & Distribution

COMPANY PROFILES

• AB Nynas Petroleum, see Petroleos de Venezuela
• Alhamrani-Fuchs Petroleum Saudi Arabia, see FUCHS Petrolub
• American Agip Company, see Eni
• Anderol Specialty Lubricants, see Chemtura Corporation
• Anji Jiffy Lube Automotive Services Company, see Royal Dutch Shell
• Ashland Incorporated
• BP plc
• Burmah Castrol, see BP
• Chemtura Corporation
• Chevron Corporation
• China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation
• CITGO Petroleum, see Petroleos de Venezuela
• ConocoPhillips
• Emarat, see Emirates General Petroleum
• Emirates General Petroleum Corporation
• Engen Petroleum Limited
• Eni SpA
• Excel Paralubes, see ConocoPhillips
• Exxon Mobil Corporation
• FUCHS Petrolub AG
• GS Caltex, see Chevron
• Hatco, see Chemtura
• Idemitsu Kosan Company Limited
• Imperial Oil, see Exxon Mobil
• Indian Oil Corporation Limited
• Lukoil Oil Company
• Motiva Enterprises, see Royal Dutch Shell
• Nippon Oil Corporation
• Pertamina, see Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak
• Dan Gas Bumi Negara
• Perusahaan Pertambangan Minyak Dan Gas Bumi Negara
• Petro-Canada Limited
• PetroChina Company Limited
• Petroleo Brasileiro SA
• Petroleos Mexicanos SA
• Petroleos de Venezuela SA
• Petroliam Nasional Berhad
• Petrol Ofisi AS
• Petromin Oils, see Saudi Arabian Lubricating Oil
• Repsol YPF SA
• Royal Dutch Shell plc
• Ruhr Oel, see BP and Petroleos de Venezuela
• Saudi Arabian Lubricating Oil Company
• Selenia (FL), see Petroliam Nasional Berhad
• Shell Oil Products US, see Royal Dutch Shell
• Sinopec Lubricant Company, see China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation
• SK Energy Company Limited
• Total SA
• Ukrtatnafta AB
• Valvoline, see Ashland
• Yushiro Chemical Industry Company Limited
• Other Companies Mentioned in the Study

LIST OF TABLES

SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Summary Table

SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT

• 1 World Population by Region
• 2 World Gross Domestic Product by Region
• 3 World Manufacturing Value Added by Region
• 4 World Gross Fixed Investment by Region
• 5 World Motor Vehicle Park by Region
• 6 World Motor Vehicle Production by Region
• 7 World Crude Oil Production by Region
• 8 World Refined Petroleum Products Production by Region

SECTION III -- OVERVIEW

• 1 World Lubricant Demand by Region
• 2 World Lubricant Demand by Formulation
• 3 World Petroleum Lubricant Demand by Region
• 4 World Nonconventional Lubricant Demand by Region
• 5 World Lubricant Demand by Product
• 6 World Engine Oil Demand by Region
• 7 World Process Oil Demand by Region
• 8 World Hydraulic Fluid Demand by Region
• 9 World Metalworking Fluid Demand by Region
• 10 World Other Lubricants Demand by Region
• 11 World Lubricant Demand by Market
• 12 World Motor Vehicle Aftermarket Lubricant Demand
• 13 World Manufacturing Demand
• 14 World Other Lubricant Markets Demand
• 15 World Lubricant Base Oil Demand

SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA

• 1 North America -- Economic & Market Environment
• 2 North America -- Lubricant Demand
• 3 United States -- Economic & Market Environment
• 4 United States -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 5 United States -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 6 Canada -- Economic & Market Environment
• 7 Canada -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 8 Canada -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 9 Mexico -- Economic & Market Environment
• 10 Mexico -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 11 Mexico -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation

SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE

• 1 Western Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
• 2 Western Europe -- Lubricant Demand
• 3 Germany -- Economic & Market Environment
• 4 Germany -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 5 Germany -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 6 France -- Economic & Market Environment
• 7 France -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 8 France -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 9 Italy -- Economic & Market Environment
• 10 Italy -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 11 Italy -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 12 United Kingdom -- Economic & Market Environment
• 13 United Kingdom -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 14 United Kingdom -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 15 Spain -- Economic & Market Environment
• 16 Spain -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 17 Spain -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 18 Other Western Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
• 19 Other Western Europe -- Lubricant Demand
• 20 Other Western Europe -- Lubricant Demand

SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC

• 1 Asia/Pacific -- Economic & Market Environment
• 2 Asia/Pacific -- Lubricant Demand
• 3 China -- Economic & Market Environment
• 4 China -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 5 China -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 6 Japan -- Economic & Market Environment
• 7 Japan -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 8 Japan -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 9 India -- Economic & Market Environment
• 10 India -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 11 India -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 12 South Korea -- Economic & Market Environment
• 13 South Korea -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 14 South Korea -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 15 Indonesia -- Economic & Market Environment
• 16 Indonesia -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 17 Indonesia -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 18 Thailand -- Economic & Market Environment
• 19 Thailand -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 20 Thailand -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 21 Australia -- Economic & Market Environment
• 22 Australia -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 23 Australia -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 24 Other Asia/Pacific -- Economic & Market Environment
• 25 Other Asia/Pacific -- Lubricant Demand
• 26 Other Asia/Pacific -- Lubricant Demand

SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS

• 1 Latin America -- Economic & Market Environment
• 2 Latin America -- Lubricant Demand
• 3 Brazil -- Economic & Market Environment
• 4 Brazil -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 5 Brazil -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 6 Other Latin America -- Economic & Market Environment
• 7 Other Latin America -- Lubricant Demand
• 8 Other Latin America -- Lubricant Demand
• 9 Eastern Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
• 10 Eastern Europe -- Lubricant Demand
• 11 Russia -- Economic & Market Environment
• 12 Russia -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 13 Russia -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 14 Other Eastern Europe -- Economic & Market Environment
• 15 Other Eastern Europe -- Lubricant Demand
• 16 Other Eastern Europe -- Lubricant Demand
• 17 Africa/Mideast -- Economic & Market Environment
• 18 Africa/Mideast -- Lubricant Demand
• 19 Iran -- Economic & Market Environment
• 20 Iran -- Lubricant Demand by Market
• 21 Iran -- Lubricant Demand by Product & Formulation
• 22 Other Africa/Mideast -- Economic & Market Environment
• 23 Other Africa/Mideast -- Lubricant Demand
• 24 Other Africa/Mideast -- Lubricant Demand

SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

• 1 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
• 2 Selected Cooperative Agreements

LIST OF CHARTS

SECTION III -- OVERVIEW

• 1 World Lubricant Demand by Region, 1997 - 2017
• 2 Lubricant Demand per Capita Vs. GDP per Capita, 2007
• 3 World Lubricant Demand by Product, 2007
• 4 World Lubricant Demand by Market, 2007
• 5 World Base Oil Demand, 1997-2017

SECTION IV -- NORTH AMERICA

• 1 North America Market Share, 2007

SECTION V -- WESTERN EUROPE

• 1 Western Europe Market Share, 2007

SECTION VI -- ASIA/PACIFIC

• 1 Asia/Pacific Market Share, 2007

SECTION VII -- OTHER REGIONS

• 1 Latin America Market Share, 2007
• 2 Eastern Europe Market Share, 2007
• 3 Africa/Mideast Market Share, 2007

SECTION VIII -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

• 1 World Lubricant Market Share, 2007

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