Abstract
US demand to grow more than 3% yearly through 2013
US demand for synthetic lubricants and functional fluids will rise more than
three percent per year to $4.8 billion in 2013, with growth rising at an even
faster pace in volume terms to reach 520 million gallons. Engine oils and
hydraulic and transmission fluids will experience the fastest gains as
synthetics finally begin to penetrate the conservative medium- and heavy-duty
truck market, and as greater new vehicle lubricant performance requirements
and growing consumer acceptance further expand synthetics' share of the light
vehicle market. While engine oils and hydraulic and transmission fluids will
achieve relatively strong growth going forward, other types of synthetic
fluids are expected to see a slow decline in demand through 2013, largely as a
result of declining average fluid prices.
Medium-, heavy-duty truck market to see fastest gains
The largest market for synthetic lubricants and functional fluids is light
vehicles. This reflects not only consumer uptake of engine oils and
transmission fluids, but also the universally synthetic nature of antifreeze,
brake and deicing (windshield wiper) fluids. Synthetic fluid demand in light
vehicles will continue to grow due both to increasing lubricant performance
requirements, and growing consumer acceptance of synthetics as a valuable part
of their preventative maintenance programs. Despite gains by synthetics in
engine oils and transmission fluids, long term industry trends toward extended
engine coolant flush intervals, and the use of fill-for-life radiator and
coolant systems, will result in a continuing decline in antifreeze volume
demand.
The fastest growing market for synthetic fluids will be the medium- and
heavyduty truck market. Increasingly stringent engine specifications, as well
as a move by many engine manufacturers to specify low viscosity engine oils
for their 2010 emissions-compliant engines, will finally lead many fleet
operators to evaluate and use synthetic engine oils and hydraulic and
transmission fluids. Synthetics will benefit from their better performance
under load in low viscosity formulations, as well as from the reduced
maintenance and downtime costs that result from synthetics' extended drain
intervals. The latter will be increasingly important to fleet operators
looking to cut costs as a result of the 2008/2009 recession, and subsequent
slow recovery.
Group III oils, polyalphaolefins to be fastest growing types
Reflecting their heavy use in engine oils and hydraulic and transmission
fluids, Group III base oils and polyalphaolefins will be the fastest growing
synthetic chemicals, with esters also achieving positive value growth through
2013. Declining average prices will hurt value demand for silicones and
aromatics going forward, though demand will remain steady on a volume basis.
From a product standpoint, the greatest declines will be in heat transfer and
metalworking fluids. In addition to declining antifreeze demand in vehicle
applications, greater use of fill-for-life coolant systems in industrial
equipment -- as well as efforts by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
to limit the run-off of airplane deicing fluids at airports -- will contribute
to falling heat transfer fluid demand. Synthetic metalworking fluid demand
will suffer from increasing substitution of bio-based fluids for synthetics,
particularly in metal removal applications, to address worker safety concerns
related to the inhalation of volatilized metalworking fluids.
Study coverage
Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids, a new Freedonia industry
study, presents historical demand data (1998, 2003 and 2008) plus forecasts
for 2013 and 2018 by material, product and market. The study also considers
market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company
market share and profiles 25 US industry competitors.
Freedonia' s methods involve:
- Establishing consistent economic and market forecasts
- Using input/output ratios, flow charts and other economic methods to
quantify data
- Employing in-house analysts who meet stringent quality standards
- Interviewing key industry participants, experts and end users
- Researching a proprietary database that includes trade publications,
government reports and corporate literature
Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- General
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Demographic Trends
- Consumer Spending Trends
- Manufacturing Trends
- Competitive Products
- Environmental & Regulatory Issues
- Recycling & Re-Refining
- Engine Oil Specifications
- Pricing Trends
- Foreign Trade & International Activity
III. PRODUCTS
- General
- Engine Oils
- Gasoline Engine Oils
- Diesel Engine Oils
- Oils for Other Engines
- Heat Transfer Fluids
- Low Temperature
- High Temperature
- Hydraulic & Transmission Fluids
- Transmission Fluids
- Product Characteristics
- Demand
- Hydraulic Fluids
- Metalworking Fluids
- Product Characteristics
- Demand
- Metal Removal Fluids
- Metal Forming Fluids
- Other Metalworking Fluids
- Dielectric Fluids
- Other
- Compressor Lubricants
- Turbine Lubricants
- Gear Lubricants
- All Other
IV. MATERIALS
- General
- Glycols
- Polyalphaolefins
- Group III Base Oils
- Esters
- Silicone Fluids
- Aromatics
- Other
V. MARKETS
- General
- Vehicles & Equipment
- Motor Vehicle & Industrial Equipment Outlook
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Light Vehicles
- Aircraft/Aerospace
- Medium & Heavy Duty Vehicles & Buses
- Industrial Machinery
- Off-Highway Vehicles
- Construction Equipment
- Mining Equipment
- Agricultural Equipment
- Other
- Metal Fabrication
- Metal Fabrication Industry Outlook
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Energy/Power Generation
- Energy/Power Generation Industry Outlook
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Process Industries
- Process Manufacturing Industry Outlook
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- HVAC/Refrigeration Systems
- HVAC/Refrigeration Industry Outlook
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Other
VI. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- General
- Market Share
- Competitive Strategies
- Research & Development
- Chemical Management Services
- Merger & Acquisition Activity
- Manufacturing
- Marketing
- Synthetic Engine Oil
- Brand Name Recognition
- Sports Sponsorship
- Antifreeze
- Other Synthetic Fluids Marketing Strategies
- Distribution
COMPANY PROFILES
- AMSOIL Incorporated
- Anderol Incorporated, see Chemtura
- Ashland Incorporated
- BASF SE
- BP plc
- Castrol Limited, see BP
- Chemtura Corporation
- Chevron Corporation
- Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC
- CIMCOOL Industrial Fluids, see Milacron
- CITGO Petroleum Corporation, see Petroleos de
- Venezuela SA
- CLC Lubricants Company
- Coastal Unilube Incorporated, see Warren Oil
- Cognis Deutschland GmbH & Company KG
- ConocoPhillips
- CPI Engineering Services Incorporated, see Lubrizol
- Dow Chemical Company
- Dow Corning Corporation
- DuPont (EI) de Nemours
- Dylon Industries Incorporated, see FUCHS Petrolub
- Exxon Mobil Corporation
- FUCHS Petrolub AG
- Hatco Corporation, see Chemtura
- Hercules Incorporated, see Ashland
- Honeywell International Incorporated
- Houghton International Incorporated
- Lubrizol Corporation
- Milacron LLC
- Motiva Enterprises LLC, see Royal Dutch Shell
- MS Fluid Technologies Incorporated, see FUCHS Petrolub
- Petroleos de Venezuela SA
- Quaker Chemical Corporation
- Royal Dutch Shell plc
- Royal Purple Incorporated
- Shell Chemicals LP, see Royal Dutch Shell Total SA
- Valvoline Company, see Ashland
- Warren Oil Company Incorporated
- Additional Companies Mentioned in the Study
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- Macroeconomic Indicators
- Population & Households
- Personal Consumption Expenditures
- Manufacturers' Shipments
- Synthetic Functional Fluid Pricing Trends
- Synthetic Functional Fluid Foreign Trade
SECTION III -- PRODUCTS
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand by Product
- Synthetic Engine Oil Demand by Engine Type
- Synthetic Gasoline Engine Oil Demand by Chemical & Market
- Synthetic Diesel Engine Oil Demand by Chemical & Market
- Other Synthetic Engine Oil Demand by Chemical & Market
- Synthetic Heat Transfer Fluid Demand
- Synthetic Low Temperature Heat Transfer Fluid Demand by Chemical & Market
- Synthetic High Temperature Heat Transfer Fluid Demand
- Synthetic Hydraulic & Transmission Fluid Demand by Product, Chemical &
Market
- Synthetic Metalworking Fluid Demand
- Synthetic Metal Removal Fluid Demand
- Synthetic Metal Forming Fluid Demand
- Other Synthetic Metalworking Fluids Demand
- Synthetic Dielectric Fluid Demand
- Other Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids Demand
SECTION IV -- MATERIALS
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand by Material
- Glycol-Based Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Polyalphaolefin-Based Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Group III Base Oil-Based Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Ester-Based Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Silicone-Based Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Aromatics-Based Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand
- Other Synthetic Lubricants, Fluids, Additives & Blending Components Demand
SECTION V -- MARKETS
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand by Market
- Vehicle & Equipment Indicators
- Vehicle & Equipment Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Light Vehicle Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Aircraft/Aerospace Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Medium & Heavy Duty Vehicle Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional
Fluids
- Industrial Machinery Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Off-Highway Vehicle Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Other Vehicle & Equipment Markets for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional
Fluids
- Metal Fabrication Industry Shipments
- Metal Fabrication Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Energy/Power Generation Indicators
- Energy/Power Generation Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Process Manufacturers' Shipments
- Process Industries Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- HVAC/Refrigeration Industry Outlook
- HVAC/Refrigeration Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids
- Synthetic Functional Fluids Demand in Other Markets
SECTION VI -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Sales by Company, 2008
- Research & Development Spending Patterns:
- Selected Synthetic Fluids Companies
- Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Pricing Volatility by Product
SECTION III -- PRODUCTS
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand by Product, 2008
SECTION IV -- MATERIALS
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand by Material, 2008
SECTION V -- MARKETS
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Demand by Market, 2008
- Vehicle & Equipment Market for Synthetic Lubricants & Functional Fluids,
2008
SECTION VI -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
- Synthetic Lubricant & Functional Fluid Market Share, 2008
