Abstract
Espicom' s best-selling CNS Drug Discoveries: what the future holds provides a
comprehensive examination of 5 major CNS therapy areas: multiple sclerosis,
Alzheimer' s disease, Parkinson' s disease, schizophrenia and depression. The
information below and the ordering information on this page relate to the
Alzheimer' s disease chapter. To find out more about the full report, click
here.
Alzheimer' s disease
- By 2014, there will be considerable change in the Alzheimer' s disease (AD)
market due to generic competition, better utilisation of acetylcholinesterase
inhibitors and new product launches which, for the first time, will treat the
condition and not the symptoms.
AD affects approximately 19 million people worldwide, with a prevalence of
approximately 1 per cent in the total population, although the risk of being
afflicted with AD increases with age.
In 2007, approximately US$5.5 billion was spent on the symptomatic treatment
of AD. The vast majority of this revenue was generated by just four drugs
within two main classes, the acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs) and
N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonists. However, since all four
brands face patent expiration within the next four to five years, this will
have a considerable impact on the revenues of the companies involved.
Since all currently-available treatments are symptomatic treatments, aimed at
alleviating the symptoms of the disease and trying to slow the deterioration
of the patients, there is a significant unmet need for improved drugs that can
modify the underlying course of the disease.
There is considerable research being undertaken in this area, although there
have been many casualties including Bellus Health' s Alzhemed (tramiprosate),
Axonyx' phenserine and sanofi-aventis' xaliproden (all discontinued from Phase
III trials), and most recently, the lack of efficacy demonstrated by Myriad
Genetics/Lundbeck' s Flurizan (tarenflurbil). The current front runner is
Wyeth/Elan' s bapineuzumab, although this too is facing challenges in
development. It may be some time before the first disease-modifying agents
emerge which could revolutionise the way AD is treated.
Key AD questions answered include:
- By what % will the number of AD patients being treated in developed
markets increase annually?
- How are approvals for new indications affecting the sales potential of
Eisai/Pfizer' s Aricept?
- What are the characteristics and prospects for Wyeth/Elan' s bapineuzumab?
- What competition could arise for Forest/Lundbeck' s Namenda/Ebixa?
Key products analysed and forecast
- Aricept - Pfizer/Eisai
- Bapineuzumab - Elan/Wyeth
- Ebixa/Namenda - Lundbeck/Forest Laboratories
- Exelon - Novartis
- Razadyne - Johnson & Johnson/Shire
Table of Contents
ALZHEIMER' S DISEASE
THE FACTS
- What is Alzheimer' s disease and why are we interested in it?
- PATIENT STATISTICS
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
- PATIENT MODEL
- The treatable AD patient population will grow by 2.7 per cent per annum
- Summary of AD Patient Population Forecasts 2007A-2014E
- Model Assumptions
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- Potential Diagnostic Biomarkers for AD
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
THE AD MARKET
- Global CNS Market (US$91.9 billion)
- AD Global Sales Split (2006)
- THE MAJOR PLAYERS
- Market Share of AD Players by Sales (Dec 2007A)
- PLAYERS AND PRODUCTS IN 2014
- Market Share of AD Players by Sales (Dec 2014E)
CURRENT AD TREATMENTS
- Leading Brands
- Comparison of Leading AD Drugs
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Patent Exposure of Leading AD Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) Inhibitors
- Aricept
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approvals
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Exelon
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Razadyne
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- NMDA Antagonist
- Namenda/Ebixa
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2007A - 2014E
- Sales Forecasts of Current Leading AD Drugs
- Model Assumptions
- NEW DRUGS IN R&D
- Drugs in Development to Treat AD
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat AD
- Bapineuzumab
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- Flurizan
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor ratio analysis
- LY450139
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III AD DRUGS 20011E - 2014E
- Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental AD Drugs
- Model Assumptions
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
- Drugs in Phase II Development to Treat AD
- CX717
- EVT 101
- Ketasyn
- MEM 1003
- MEM 3454
- PBT2
- COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS
- COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS
- CR Analysis of AD Agents Approved by 2014 - Based on Drug Class
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
- CR Analysis of AD and PD Agents Approved by 2014 - Based on Company
- WINNERS & LOSERS
- Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the AD Market by 2014
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS
- AD Drugs Discontinued from Clinical Development
AD APPENDIX 1
- Phase Transition Probability
- Probability of Launch
AD APPENDIX 2
- AD Patient Model
- Summary of AD Patient Population Forecasts
AD APPENDIX 3
- Global AD Drugs Sales 2007A-2014E
- Global AD Drug Sales 2007A-2014E
AD APPENDIX 4
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Key AD Drugs on the Market by 2014
ALZHEIMER' S DISEASE GLOSSARY
ALZHEIMER' S DISEASE REFERENCES
ACRONYMS
