Abstract
Avastin is set to become the most successful cancer treatment to date and
one of the leading drugs with sales likely to exceed US$9 billion by 2015.
Since its launch in 2004, Avastin has achieved strong growth culminating in
sales of US$5,731 million (SFr 6.2 billion) in 2009. Not only is Avastin now
Roche' s top-selling oncology product, ahead of both MabThera/Rituxan
(rituximab) and Herceptin (trastuzumab), but its sales exceed those of every
other cancer product on the market.
In 2009, solid growth was seen across all markets, driven by continued uptake
in colorectal cancer (CRC), breast cancer (BC) and non-small cell lung cancer
(NSCLC). In the US, metastatic BC was the main growth driver, helped by
launches for the new indications of glioblastoma and renal cell carcinoma
(RCC). Strong growth was seen in the EU in all indications. In the Japanese
market, Avastin sales growth was particularly strong with continued
substantial uptake in CRC, enhanced by its recent approval for NSCLC.
While its first-to-market status and Roche' s experience in the oncology sector
have provided a sound basis for growth, a number of related angiogenesis
products have been launched and many more are on the horizon. What threat do
they present to Avastin' s status and when will their impact be felt?
The current market
Avastin is the only product that currently directly inhibits VEGF. Competing
products take a different approach. Bayer/Onyx' Nexavar, Pfizer' s Sutent and
GSK' s Votrient/Armala are all multi-kinase inhibitors and Pfizer' s Torisel and
Novartis' Afinitor are mTOR (kinase) inhibitors.
Looking forward...
Drugs with novel mechanisms of inhibiting angiogenesis are beginning to emerge
in company pipelines. Espicom has identified 13 major projects in Phase III
development, with a further 10 in Phase II. Novel agents include:
Enzastaurin: A novel agent that acts through inhibition of protein
kinase C and has been found to suppress tumour growth through multiple
mechanisms, such as the direct suppression of tumour cell proliferation.
Panobinostat: This pan-histone deacetylase inhibitor targets multiple
oncogenic pathways, including angiogenesis.
PF-02341066: This is a selective ATP-competitive small-molecule
inhibitor of both c-Met/hepatocyte growth factor receptor and anaplastic
lymphoma kinase tyrosine kinases and their oncogenic variants.
This new report from Espicom, published April 2010, evaluates Avastin and puts
it into its market and competitive context with in-depth analysis of the
products and companies that may shape the competitive landscape in the future.
With this report you will...
- Understand Avastin' s unique position in the oncology market
- Evaluate its strengths and weaknesses relative to other VEGF-targeting
products
- Gain insight into the prevalence of cancers in Avastin' s therapeutic window
- Review the merits of 21 late-phase development prospects with Espicom' s
unique 5-point competitive assessment
- Know the launch timeframe for up and coming products
- Estimate future revenues with 5-year forecasts for more than 20 launched
and late-phase products
Just some of the approaches being used by products in this report
- VEGFr-1, -2 and -3 tyrosine kinase inhibitors
- VEGF Trap
- MET & RET inhibitors
- PDGFr inhibitors
- HDAC inhibitors
Questions answered by the report include...
- Which other products in the pipeline mirror Avastin' s therapeutic approach?
- What are the extension indications Avastin is expected to secure to 2016?
- In 2012, five products targeting the VEGF pathway are expected to launch -
what are they and who are the developers?
- Why is Amgen/Takeda' s motesanib/AMG 706 expected to achieve revenues in
excess of US$1 billion by 2014?
About the Authors
This report has been researched and written by the 4D Pharma team at Espicom.
The report' s editor is Espicom' s senior pharmaceutical analyst, Sue Viney. For
over 10 years she has played a pivotal role in tracking trends in drug
development and corporate performance. In addition she has produced detailed
product analyses in the Breast/Lung/Colorectal/Prostate Cancer, CNS and
Rheumatoid Arthritis sectors.
Total number of pages: 145
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Introduction
- Angiogenesis and the Role of VEGF
- Angiogenesis Inhibitors
- Avastin
- Avastin' s Place Within the Market
- The Secret to Avastin' s Success
- Opportunities for Avastin
- Threats to Avastin
- Angiogenesis Inhibitors under Development
- Shape of the Future; Sales Forecasts to 2015
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Summary
AVASTIN
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
LAUNCHED COMPETITORS
- Afinitor
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Armala/Votrient
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Nexavar
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Sutent
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Torisel
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
PHASE III COMPETITORS
- Aflibercept
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Axitinib
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Brivanib
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Enzastaurin
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Midostaurin
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Motesanib
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Panobinostat
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition Within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- PF-02341066
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Ramucirumab
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Recentin
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition Within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Vargatef
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition Within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- XL184
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Zactima
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition Within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
PHASE II COMPETITORS
- Angicept
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- ARQ 197
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Foretinib
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Linifanib
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- MGCD265
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Telatinib
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Tivozanib
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Forecast
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- TSU-68
- Mode of Action
- Current Status
- Proof of Concept/Clinical Data
- Development Risks
- Company Expertise
- Competition within the Market-place
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Others
PHASE I COMPETITORS
- ALN-VSP
- CEP-11981
- CYC116
- E7080
- IMC-18F1
- OSI-930
- PF-4856884
APPEND IX 1: PHASE TRANSITION PROBABILITY
APPEND IX 2: GLOSSARY
APPEND IX 3: BIBLIOGRAPHY
LIST OF TABLES
- Comparison of Launched Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway
- Avastin Sales and Launches (2004-2009)
- Selected Clinical Trial Survival Results
- Estimated Major New Avastin Launches
- Selected Anti-Angiogenesis Agents Under Development
- Timeline of Phase III Anti-Angiogenesis Development Projects
- Molecular Targets for Avastin Competitors
- Sales Forecasts (2008-2015)
- Key Drugs Analysed
- Competitive Scores and Sales Scores
- Avastin Sales by Company
- Avastin Sales by Indication
- Afinitor Sales by Indication
- Armala/Votrient Sales by Indication
- Nexavar Sales by Indication
- Sutent Sales by Indication
- Torisel Sales by Indication
- Afilibercept Sales by Indication
- Axitinib Treatment-Related Adverse Events
- Axitinib Sales by Indication
- Brivanib Sales by Indication
- Enzastaurin Total Sales
- Recentin Sales by Indication
- Motesanib Sales by Company
- Panobinostat Sales by Indication
- PF-02341066 Sales by Indication
- Ramucirumab Sales by Indication
- Recentin Sales by Indication
- Vargatef Sales by Indication
- XL184 Sales by Indication
- Zactima Total Sales
- Tivozanib Sales by Indication
- Probability of Launch
LIST OF CHARTS
- Angiogenesis is the Formation of New Blood Vessels
- Selected Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway
- Oncology Therapy Area Split (2008)
- Sales of Targeted Therapies (2008)
- Sales of Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway (2008)
- Avastin Geographical Sales (2009)
- Avastin Sales (2004-2009)
- Relative Proportions of Cancer Indications (2008)
- Incidence of Major Cancer Indications (2008 and 2015)
- Incidence and Mortality Comparisons (2008)
- Sales of VEGF Pathway Inhibitors (2015)
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Scores by Product
- Analysis of Products Based on Delivery (2015)
- Analysis of Products Based on Company (2015)
- Avastin Mode of Action
- Sales of Avastin by Company (2008-2015)
- Avastin Sales by Indication, 2008
- Avastin Sales by Indication, 2015
- Afinitor Mode of Action
- Afinitor Total Sales (2008-2015)
- Votrient/Armala Total Sales (2009-2015)
- Votrient/Armala Sales by Indication, 2015
- Nexavar Dual Mode of Action
- Nexavar Total Sales (2008-2015)
- Nexavar Sales by Indication, 2008
- Nexavar Sales by Indication, 2015
- Sutent Mode of Action
- Sutent Total Sales (2008-2015)
- Sutent Sales by Indication, 2008
- Sutent Sales by Indication, 2015
- Torisel Mode of Action
- Torisel Total Sales (2008-2015)
- Torisel Sales by Indication (2015)
- Aflibercept Total Sales (2011-2015)
- Aflibercept Sales by Indication, 2012
- Aflibercept Sales by Indication, 2015
- Axitinib Total Sales (2012-2015)
- Brivanib Total Sales (2012-2015)
- Enzastaurin Total Sales (2014-2016)
- Midostaurin Mode of Action
- Recentin Total Sales (2011-2015)
- Motesanib Total Sales (2010-2015)
- Panobinostat Mode of Action
- Panobinostat Total Sales (2011-2015)
- PF-02341066 Total Sales (2013-2015)
- Ramucirumab Total Sales (2013-2015)
- Cediranib Mechanism Of Action
- Recentin Total Sales (2011-2015)
- Vargatef Mode of Action
- Vargatef Total Sales (2013-2015)
- XL184 Total Sales (2012-2015)
- Zactima Total Sales (2011-2015)
- Tivozanib Total Sales (2013-2015)
