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市場調查報告書
美國送電市場與各種戰略：2011-2020年
US Transmission Markets and Strategies: 2011-2020
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美國送電市場與各種戰略：2011-2020年 是由出版商Emerging Energy Research在2011年11月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金4950起跳。
現在美國的電力網狀況，成為對美國能源產業來說極重要的課題。不受該國送電基礎架構由於數十年投資不足，已見老朽化的影響，遵從嚴格的信頼性基準，或者說對於電力市場的大幅變化的對應是必要且迫切的。再生能源相關的州的義務也督促著對美國全土送電設備的投資的緊急性。
本報告書為美國送電網現狀與相關各企業的各種做為之相關調査分析、對再生能源市場的影響分析、高電壓送電線所必要的投資檢驗、新舊開發者以及設備保有企業競爭上的定位、相關支援策與法規體制、送電種類・各地區投資預測、送電計畫的簡介、相關各企業的戰略、主要各企業的簡介等，概述如下。
第1章 總綱
第2章 送電市場的成長牽引因子・政策
- 高電壓送電投資的根本性推進因子
- 對於將來成長指標的持續投資
- 得到複數優點的模式與送電開發新動向
- 做為送電推進因子的再生能源
- 連邦政府送電相關政策・法規・規則
- 獎勵地區内・地區間送電的FERC
- 連邦政府之鼓勵・助成金
- 地區的政策・市場構造
- 組織化的地區市場中的送電計劃
- 各州送電市場與趨勢
- 未組織化的地區市場中的送電開發
第3章 技術動向・開發預測
- 預測手法
- 對送電設備的投資預測
- 對再生能源的預測之影響
第4章 開發活動・計畫線的簡介
- 送電計畫開發動向
- 地區之計畫開發提議
- 送電技術的動向
- 送電成本的動向
- 送電計畫程序
第5章 公共設施企業・開發者各企業的戰略
- 送電價值鏈的變化
- 既存公共設施企業TransCos：為了得到成長機會的合作
- 挑戰送電課題的多角化能源企業
- 純開發者：野心資產的動員
- 送電設備持有者的競爭上的定位
- 主流公共設施企業
- 送電設備持有者以及開發者
- M&A與送電設備持有者排名的變更
- 送電設備持有者的構造
- 相關企業的各種戰略
- 公共設施企業的送電開發戰略
- 送電企業的各種戰略
- 多角化能源企業
- 純開發者
- IPP送電開發戰略
第6章 開發者簡介
- 公共設施企業
- 送電企業
- 連邦政府
- 多角的能源企業
- 開發者
- IPP
圖表
Abstract
The state of the US electric grid is a pivotal issue for the energy industry.
The country's transmission infrastructure has been subject to increasingly
rigorous reliability standards and significant changes to power markets while
also weakened by decades of under-investment. Current state mandates for
renewable energy have increased the urgency for transmission investment across
the US. Over 70 GW of renewable energy capacity will need to come online by
2020 to meet state renewable portfolio requirements -- new transmission
development is crucial for this new capacity.
With up to US$100 Billion of capital investment required in the US
transmission sector over the next decade, transmission developers are seeking
innovative ownership and financing models to advance projects. These new
models have been increasingly facilitated by the greater flexibility afforded
by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and regional planning
authorities. The top 20 owners of transmission control over 60% of the total
installed transmission in the US greater than 345kV, but a host of new
entrants now see transmission as a key investment opportunity.
A landmark new study from IHS Emerging Energy Research, US Transmission
Markets and Strategies: 2011-2020, analyzes the US transmission grid. It
evaluates the impact on renewable energy markets, the investment required in
high voltage lines, and the competitive positioning of established and
emerging transmission developers and owners.
Following are just a few key trends analyzed in this new study:
- Utilities expand transmission footprint through both new and
established business models: Driven by regional expansion ambitions and
RPS obligations, utilities are leveraging inherent strengths in transmission
to expand their market presence. Led by AEP, MidAmerican and Duke Energy,
utilities are building a pipeline of transmission projects to be submitted
into the RTO/ISO planning processes. Major utility transmission owners are
pursuing regulated rate-based build, establishing newly formed joint ventures,
and spinning off new transcos for expansion.
- Cost allocation key to unlocking new transmission for renewable
energy: A recent ruling by FERC (Order 1000) allows renewables-focused
transmission to be eligible for regional cost allocation, mitigating risk for
investors. Regional Transmission Organizations including ERCOT, Midwest ISO,
and SPP have instituted new cost allocation methodologies to allow for more
renewables-enabling transmission. However, long permitting and development
timelines continue to bring risk and uncertainty for transmission projects and
their developers.
- New players look to unlock renewables through transmission
development: The drive to unlock renewable power generation is attracting
players from across the energy spectrum into transmission development.
Integrated energy companies, independent power producers, and pure play
developers, are aiming to seize the opportunity. Some are pursuing novel
business models, while others are competing with utilities for regional cost
allocation.
Exhibit 5-12: Competitive Positioning of US Transmission Developers
STUDY HIGHLIGHTS:
Transmission Investment Forecasts through 2020
- Annual Investment Forecasts ($)
- Investment Forecast by Region
- Investment Forecasts by Transmission Type
Strategy Profiles of Transmission Developers
- Pure-Play Transmission Developers
- Integrated Utilities
- Independent Transmission Companies
- Independent Power Producers
- Diversified Energy Players
Profiles of Major Transmission Initiatives
- Over 20,000 miles of proposed high voltage lines
- Status of projects in development
- Regional map project details
- Regional Analysis: MISO, SPP, ERCOT, CAISO, ISO-NE, NY ISO, WECC
Transmission Development Activity
- Financing/Ownership Strategies
- Approved and proposed projects by region
- Planned Investment by Company Type
- Energy Storage Integration
- Transmission Cost Trend Analysis
Transmission Policy Landscape and Market Drivers
- Status of Regional Planning Processes
- State Transmission Initiatives
- Federal Policies (FERC)
- Regional Bottlenecks
- Transmission Subsidies
- Impact of Renewable Energy
About IHS EER
IHS Emerging Energy Research is the leading provider of research-based
analysis, advice, and support to the global renewable power industry.
Table of Contents
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. TRANSMISSION MARKET DRIVERS AND POLICIES
1. Foundational Drivers of High Voltage Transmission Investment
- Historical Investment as an Indicator of Future Growth
- Multiple Benefit Model to Mark New Trend in Transmission Development
2. Renewable Energy as a Transmission Driver
- Transmission Need Strongly Linked to State RPS Policies
- Scale of State RPS Driven Demand
- Transmission Constraints Become Apparent as Renewables Penetration Grows
- Renewable Resource Quality Drives Regional Price Differences
- RPS Policy Retrenchment Represents Major Risk to Transmission Investment Growth Implications of a Federal Clean Energy Standard
3. Federal Transmission Policies, Regulations and Market Rules
- FERC to Encourage Regional and Inter-Regional Transmission
- Regional Transmission Operators Lead the Way in Planning and Cost
Allocation
- Regions Enhance Transmission Planning to Align with State RPS Objectives
- Elimination of ‘Right of First Refusal’ Sparks New Competitive Paradigm All Siting Remains Local
- Federal Incentives and Subsidies
- Rate Incentives for Transmission Serve as Primary Driver for Development
- ARRA Funding Kick-Starts Investment, Enhances Planning Initiatives
4. Regional Policies and Market Structure
- Transmission Planning in Organized Regional Markets
- MISO Targeting Significant Development through Multi-Value Projects
(MVPs)
- SPP to Build EHV Infrastructure under Highways/Byways Cost Allocation
- PJM Expansion Plans Stalled by Effects of Economic Recession
- New England Focuses on Reliability and Congestion, Studies Renewables
Integration
- State Transmission Markets and Initiatives
- California Establishes Clear Path to Achieving 33% RPS
- Independent ERCOT Formulates Policies on its Own Terms
- New York ISO Takes Laissez-faire Approach to Planning
- Michigan Gives Thumbs Up to Wind Energy Resource Zones
- Transmission Development in Non- Organized Regional Markets
- Non-organized WECC Regions Gear Up to Build Renewables Foundation
- Southeast to Focus on Lower Voltage Solutions to Local Reliability Needs
III. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT FORECAST
1. Transmission Forecast Methodology
2. Transmission Investment Forecast
- Regional Transmission Investment Trends
- Investment Trends by Transmission Type
3. Implications for Renewable Forecast
IV. DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND PROJECT LINE PROFILES
1. Transmission Project Development Trends
- Regional Project Development Activity
- Renewables Drive Majority of the Project Pipeline
- Regional Development Status of the Transmission Pipeline
- Transmission Technology Trends
- DC Targeted For Long Distance Transmission, Fewer Integration Challenges
- Underground Transmission Gains Attention, but Still Costly
- Superconducting Transmission Targets Congestion
- Transmission Developers Eye Pumped Hydro for Renewables Integration
- Batteries Pose Threat, Opportunity for Large Scale Transmission
- Transmission Cost Trends
- Transmission Capital Cost Trends
- Impact of Transmission Investment on Delivered Cost of Energy
2. Transmission Project Profiles
- Atlantic Wind Connection
- Canada - Pacific Northwest - Northern California (CNC) Project
- CapX 2020 Group 1
- Champlain-Hudson Power Express
- Clean Line Energy Partners
- Energy Gateway Transmission Expansion
- Grand Rivers Project
- Green Line (ME-MA)
- Green Power Express
- High Plains Express
- Maine Power Reliability Program
- McNary-John Day Line
- Michigan Thumb Loop
- Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway (MAPP)
- Northeast Energy Link
- Northern Pass
- ON Line/Southwest Intertie Project
- Overland Transmission Project
- Pioneer Transmission
- Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline (PATH)
- Reliability Interregional Transmission Extension (RITE) Project
- Southwest Power Pool Initiatives
- Sunrise Powerlink
- SunZia Southwest Transmission
- Tehachapi Renewable Transmission
- Texas Competitive Renewable Energy Zone (CREZ)
- The Chinook and Zephyr Lines
- The LaSalle Line
- The Mountain States Transmission Intertie
- TransWest Express
- West Coast Cable & Juan de Fuca
- Wind Spirit Project
V. UTILITY AND DEVELOPER STRATEGIES
1. Transmission Value Chain Evolution
- Incumbent Utilities, TransCos Establish Partnerships to Seize Growth Opportunity
- Diversified Energy Players Take on the Transmission Challenge
- Pure Play Developers Mobilize Capital with Ambitious Objectives
2. Competitive Positioning of Transmission Owners
- Utilities to Remain Dominant
- Transmission Owners and Developers
- Mergers and Acquisitions to Reshape Transmission Ownership Rankings
3. Transmission Ownership Structures
- Regional Cost Allocation Adds Certainty to Project Returns
- Alternative Development Models Evolve
- Merchant Lines Rise to Fill
- Transmission Void where Planning Process Lacking
- Anchor Tenant Structure Changes Merchant Risk Dynamics
- Participant Funded Lines Focus on Cost Causation for Economic Development
4. Competitive Transmission Strategies
- Utility Transmission Development Strategies
- AEP, Duke, MidAmerican Position at Focal Point as Utility Partnership Strategies Evolve
- Exelon, Ameren Spin Off TransCos Reflective of Growing Transmission Opportunity
- Utilities Advance Gigawatt Scale Renewable Energy Transmission Through Regulated Arms
- Federal Agencies Given New Mission and Funding for Transmission
- Transmission Company Strategies
- ITC Seizes Renewables and Reliability Opportunities with Unique Value Proposition
- ATC Seeks Utility Partnerships to Expand to New Territory
- Diversified Energy Players
- TransCanada Blazed Trail with Early Transmission Entrance
- Enbridge Brings Pipeline Knowledge to Transmission Anschutz Transmission Advances Wind Projects
- Hunt Pioneers REIT Approach as Financing Strategies Adapt to Emerging Opportunity
- Pure-Play Developers
- Clean Line Brings Wind Out of Region with HVDC Trans-Elect Goes Offshore Backed by Google
- Developers Fight Submarine Siting Battles in Dense Northeast
- Tres Amigas Pioneers Large Scale Hub Concept
- IPP Transmission Development Strategies
- NextEra Advances Leading Wind Position
- Pattern Energy Makes Successful Development Push
- LS Power Looks to Capitalize on Early Mover Positioning
VI. DEVELOPER PROFILES
1. Utilities
- American Electric Power (AEP)
- Ameren Corporation
- Duke Energy
- Electric Transmission America (Electric Transmission Texas)
- Exelon Corporation
- FirstEnergy Corporation
- Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP)
- MidAmerican Energy
- National Grid
- Northeast Utilities (NU)
- NorthWestern Energy
- NV Energy
- Oklahoma Gas & Electric (OG+E)
- Oncor Corp.
- Pacific Gas & Electric Company
- PacifiCorp.
- Southern California Edison (SCE Corp)
- San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E)
- Xcel Energy
2. Transmission Companies
- American Transmission Company
- ITC Holdings (ITC)
3. Federal
- Bonneville Power Administration
- Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
- Western Area Power Administration
4. Diversified Energy
- Anschutz Corporation
- Enbridge Inc
- Hunt Power (Sharyland Utilities)
- TransCanada Corporation
5. Developers
- Anbaric Transmission
- Clean Line Energy
- PowerBridge LLC
- Trans-Elect Development Company
- Transmission Developers Inc(TDI)
6. IPPs
- LS Power
- NextEra Energy Resources
- Pattern Energy Group
LIST OF EXHIBITS
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. TRANSMISSION MARKET DRIVERS AND POLICIES
- 1. Summary of Key Drivers of Transmission
- 2. US Transmission Investment and Changes in Electricity Markets and Policy
- 3. Historical Renewable Power Capacity Growth in the US
- 4. Map of State RPS Policies and 2025 Renewables Demand (TWh)
- 5. Scale of Renewables Demand Relative to Supply by Region to 2025
- 6. Select Areas with Current and Near-Term Transmission Constraints
- 7. Regional Price Ranges of Wind Generation (US$/MWh)
- 8. Summary of Proposed RPS-Related Bills Debated in 2011
- 9. Summary of Potential Impacts of a CES on Transmission Development Trends
- 10. Timing of Regional RPS Shortfalls if a CES is Passed
- 11. Implications of Key Transmission Policies and FERC Rulemaking
- 12. Progress of Transmission Planning Alignment with Renewable Policy Goals
- 13. Scale of Renewables-Driven Transmission Planning
- 14. FERC Rate Incentives for Transmission
- 15. MISO Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
- 16. SPP Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
- 17. PJM Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
- 18. ISO-NE Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
- 19. California Transmission Planning and Development Summary
- 20. Texas Transmission Planning and Development Map and Summary
- 21. New York Transmission Planning and Development Summary
- 22. WECC Transmission Planning and Development Summary
III. TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT FORECAST
- 1. Cumulative and Annual Investment Forecast: Base and Optimistic Cases
- 2. Annual Investment Forecast: Base and Optimistic Cases
- 3. Regional Forecast: Base Case and Optimistic Case
- 4. Forecast High Voltage Miles as % of Existing High Voltage Network
- 5. Technology Forecast: Base Case
- 6. Technology Forecast: Optimistic Case
- 7. Estimated renewable generation unlocked by Region and by Case
IV. DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY AND PROJECT LINE PROFILES
- 1. Proposed Completion Date of High Voltage Transmission Projects in the
Pipeline
- 2. Transmission Projects Proposed by Region
- 3. Approved and Proposed Transmission Investment by Region
- 4. Renewable Transmission Planned by Driver
- 5. Transmission Development Pipeline by Technology Type
- 6. Ranking of Projects by Length and Voltage Type
- 7. Underground and Submarine Transmission At Varying Stages of Development
- 8. Major Offshore Transmission Initiatives Along the East Coast
- 9. Key Superconductor Transmission Projects Since 2004
- 10. US HydroPower Development and Hydro Power Licensing Activity
- 11. Battery Technology Development Trends
- 12. Transmission Project Costs by Mile and Voltage
- 13. Regional cost of transmission on Delivered Renewable Energy
- 14. Average Regional Planned Investment per Mile in Renewable Transmission*
V. UTILITY AND DEVELOPER STRATEGIES
- 1. Positioning of Players Along the Power Supply Value Chain
- 2. The New Transmission Value Chain
- 3. Positioning of Select Utilities at Transmission Development Forefront
- 4. Vertical Integration Relative to Development Strategies of Diversified
Energy Cos.
- 5. Pure-Play Transmission Developers and Investor Relationships
- Top 25 Owners of Existing High-Voltage Transmission (>345 kV)
- 6. Planned High-Voltage Transmission
- Investments by Company Type*
- 7. Generation and Transmission
- Ownership Matrix for Top 15 Transmission Owners
- 8. Impact of Pending M&A on Transmission Ownership Rankings
- 9. Summary of Transmission Ownership Structures
- 10. Major Regionally Cost Allocated Lines by Region
- 11. Positioning of Transmission Developers
- 12. Timing and Stage of Merchant Projects Under Development in WECC
- 13. Merchant Lines with Anchor Tenants
- 14. Value Chain Positioning of Merchant and Participant-Funded Development
Models
- 15. AEP at Center of Utility Transmission Expansion
- 16. Transmission Development in Midwest- ISO
- 17. Major Utility-Driven Transmission Initiatives in the US
- 18. Map of WAPA TIP Investments and Projects Under Review
- 19. Coalition of Southeastern Utilities Opposing Transmission
- 20. Enbridge's Renewables Investment Timeline and Transmission Assets
- 21. Electric Infrastructure Alliance of America REIT Investors
- 22. Average Cost and Distance per Project by Company Type (US$ Million)
- 23. Tres Amigas to Establish New Energy Hub
- 24. NextEra Texas Projects and Transmission Map
美國的供電部門今後10年需要1,000億美元的資本投資：供電開發企業摸索創新的金融模型
2011年11月28日
Global Information, Inc.已開始銷售Emerging Energy Research所發行的報告書「US Transmission Markets and Strategies: 2011-2020 (美國送電市場與各種戰略：2011-2020年)」
在數年的過少投資後，美國的供電基礎設施因新的能源政策法而重新引人注目。依據聯邦能源法規委員會(FERC)的法規，正整備與供電系統可靠性有關的基準，促進批發電力市場的成長。
隨著供電市場活潑化，高壓供電系統開發深受各種公用事業企業、投資家與專案開發者的關心。
本報告書分析供電系統對可再生能源市場的影響、對高壓供電線的投資、原有與新興供電開發及供電設備所有者的競爭狀況。
本報告書提供下列分析。
- 供電政策的展望與市場成長要因
- 到2020年為止供電設備的投資
- 公用事業企業及供電開發企業的策略
- 美國主要供電專案的狀況
- 供電開發
本報告書提供下列問題的回答。
- 可再生能源牽引供電市場市場機會的規模如何？
- 供電市場的競爭在哪裡？迄今發展的策略中最成功的例子為何？
- 主要供電市場主動的狀況和展望為何？
- 形成供電開發展望的地區政策和市場力學為何？
- 聯邦能源法規委員會(FERC)的1000號命令如何影響美國的能源產業？
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