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市場調查報告書

上游產業石油與天然氣市場上投資展望

Upstream Investment Outlook 2018

出版商 Douglas-Westwood 商品編碼 407926
出版日期 內容資訊 英文 46 Pages
商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內
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上游產業石油與天然氣市場上投資展望 Upstream Investment Outlook 2018
出版日期: 2018年02月09日 內容資訊: 英文 46 Pages
簡介

本報告提供全球上游產業石油與天然氣市場相關調查,提供目前投資趨勢及未來的投資展望相關分析。

摘要整理

  • 短期性展望:上游產業石油與天然氣產業的宏觀經濟展望
  • 長期性展望:能源混合的變化,石油供給,天然氣供給,油田·天然氣田的增加,業者的焦點的變化,LNG及勘探的相關分析 - 發現·蘊藏量
  • 投資展望:現金流量 & Capex,紅利 & 借入金,每1桶的開發成本,未來的營利性,油田設備支出,油田服務支出及上游產業 Capex vs. Opex的檢討
  • 潛在的復甦力:OPEC策略,開發反應性,境內復甦,海底tieback & 固定平台及FPS
  • 供應鏈情形:企業實際成果,價格壓力,境內 & 海上鑽機需求,海底生產 & 加工系統的背部對數(記錄),境內風力,北海退役的評估
  • 不確定性:經濟動態,政治要素·其他威脅及那些石油價格帶來的影響,及上游產業投資展望的結果

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目錄

The oil market has shifted dramatically over the last 12 months. Brent crude prices have hit levels not seen for over three years. OPEC has executed a successful and disciplined intervention, particularly so in the latter half of 2017.

Offshore ordering showed a particularly strong improvement through the year, with many high-profile projects being sanctioned. Westwood's recent addition of Floating Production System (FPS) data into the SECTORS online platform highlights this, with a total of 15 new FPS orders being placed last year, compared to zero the year previous.

Oil Supply Demand Balance 2015-2022

Looking further forward however, the lack of sanctioning activity since the downturn will likely result in a shortfall in project executions early next decade. Current data suggests the oil market will transition into a sustained undersupply from 2021, which is likely to be met by high oil prices and a wave of new, fast-tracked projects being sanctioned. Despite electric vehicles, renewables and battery technologies having improved substantially in recent years, growth in these markets is unlikely to meet the oil supply shortfall.

Over the longer-term, however, threats from these technologies will only strengthen and the oil & gas market will have to continue to adapt, to a changing energy landscape.

Key Conclusions Include:

  • A further -0.9 mmbbl/d oil market correction is expected in 2018.
  • Saudi Arabia's production strategy after the ~5% IPO of Saudi Aramco remains unclear.
  • US shale production is already over 10mbpd and expected to hit 11mpd by 2019.
  • A further 16 FPS units which are expected to be ordered this year, in addition to the one already ordered.
  • Brent prices are outperforming industry consensus so far this year ($60/bbl 2018 average).
  • $1.7tn of upstream Capex is expected over 2018-2022.

Westwood publishes the Upstream Investment Outlook on a quarterly basis, to provide its independent view on the current, and future, state of the upstream oil & gas market - to educate investors and guide businesses through the coming months and years.

Table of Contents

Foreword

Executive Summary

Near-Term Outlook

  • Oil Market Dynamics
  • Oil Demand
  • Oil Supply
  • Top 20 Oil Field Additions 2018-2019
  • OPEC Production
  • OPEC Production (Continued)
  • Oil Price Evolution
  • Oil Supply-Demand Balance
  • Consensus Oil Price
  • Gas Demand and Supply
  • Consensus Gas Price

Long-Term Outlook

  • Changing Energy Mix
  • Oil Supply
  • Gas Supply
  • Top 40 Oil and Gas Field Additions 2021-2024
  • Shifting Operator Focus
  • Liquefied Natural Gas
  • E&A, Discoveries & Reserves

Investment Outlook

  • Development Cost per Barrel
  • Future Commerciality
  • Upstream Oilfield Equipment Expenditure
  • Upstream Drilling & Well Services Expenditure
  • Upstream Capex vs Opex

Emerging Recovery

  • Development Reactivity
  • Onshore Rebound
  • Subsea Tiebacks and Fixed Platforms
  • Floating Production Systems

Supply Chain Conditions

  • Company Performance
  • Onshore & Offshore Rig Demand
  • Subsea Production & Processing System Backlog
  • Offshore Wind
  • Western Europe Decommissioning

Uncertainties

  • Economic
  • Political
  • Other Threats
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