流感疫苗及抗病毒劑：流行病的長期影響 是由出版商Datamonitor在2009年08月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含340 pages 價格從美金15200起跳。
近年來流行性感冒不斷感染，流行性感冒市場也在快速發展當中。製藥企業期望能透過加強開發流感疫苗及抗病毒劑的新技術及製造能力獲得更大的商機。
本報告書內容包括：美國、日本、歐洲各國目前的流行性感冒市場策略性分析、流行性感冒治療及預防動向、3種情境之季節性流感疫苗市場預測模式的長期影響分析。內容綱要摘記如下：
實施概要
市場定義
季節性流感疫苗市場概要及預測
- 全球7大市場
- 現在及未來的市場概要
- 疫苗建議
- 疫苗覆蓋率
- 機會及威脅
- 2018年及2019年之前的預測
- 美國
- 日本
- 歐洲主要國
- 法國
- 德國
- 義大利
- 西班牙
- 英國
- 其他各國
- 潛在需求
流感疫苗：主要開發業者、產品及策略
- 策略概要
- 企業策略動向
- Sanofi Pasteur
- Novartis
- GlaxoSmithKline
- AstraZeneca/MedImmune
- CSL
- Solvay
- 其他主要企業的投資組合評價
流行性感冒抗病毒劑
- 競爭概要
- 美國
- 日本
- 歐洲5國
- Tamiflu
- Relenza
- 品牌選擇促進因素
- 美國主要品牌動向
- 行銷策略動向
- 潛在需求
- 流行性感冒抗病毒劑產品線
新型流行性感冒（H1N1)
- 背景及時間表
- 抗病毒劑
- 疫苗
- 已確立市場地位的流感疫苗治療服務提供企業從目前的流行性感冒（H1N1)中獲得龐大利益
參考資料
附錄
Abstract
Introduction
Fuelled by the pandemic flu threat, the influenza market has expanded rapidly
in recent years. This growing commercial opportunity has encouraged companies
to develop new technologies and increase manufacturing capacity for influenza
vaccines and antivirals. The H1N1 pandemic will stimulate further growth, but
also confronts industry and public health stakeholders with new challenges.
Scope of this research
- Strategic analysis of the current influenza market across the US, Japan,
France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK and of key companies in the sector
- Thorough assessment of commercial and clinical factors influencing and
shaping the influenza treatment and prevention market
- Patient-based forecast model for the seasonal flu vaccine market with
three different scenarios modelling the long-term impact of the current
pandemic
- In-depth analysis of both influenza vaccine and antiviral pipeline
candidates and discussion of their future potential
Research and analysis highlights
The influenza sector has benefited from the increased disease awareness and
funding due to the pandemic flu scare. Maintaining this momentum in the coming
years will be a key challenge. New technologies in manufacturing, adjuvants
and delivery will drive increased product differentiation in the currently
highly commoditized flu vaccines market.
Datamonitor believes that the most likely scenario for the long-term impact of
the current H1N1 pandemic is a transient boost for seasonal flu vaccination,
expanding the 7 major markets' size from $2.8 billion in 2008/2009 to over $4
billion in 2010/2011, followed by a period of stagnation caused by
immunization fatigue.
While Tamiflu will remain the leading influenza antiviral for the foreseeable
future, resistance is becoming an increasing issue for Roche' s drug.
Biocryst' s Phase III drug peramivir could claim an attractive niche market in
hospitalized patients, while Biota' s inhaled pipeline candidate CS-8958 has an
interesting long-acting profile.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Review the clinical and commercial factors driving new product decisions
in influenza vaccines and the strategies of key players in the market
- Size the market with patient-based scenario forecasts of the seasonal
vaccines market and a thorough analysis of the vaccine and antiviral pipeline
- Understand concerns, unmet needs and future opportunities in influenza
prevention and therapy
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Strategic scoping and focus
- Datamonitor insight into the influenza market
- Related reports
- Upcoming related reports
MARKET DEFINITION
- Market definition for this report
SEASONAL INFLUENZA VACCINE MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECAST
- Seven major markets
- Current and future market overview
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- US
- Current market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Japan
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Five major European markets (5EU)
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Opportunities and threats
- Forecast to 2018/19
- France
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Germany
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Italy
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Spain
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- UK
- Current and future market assessment
- Vaccination recommendations
- Vaccination coverage rates
- Forecast to 2018/19
- Rest of the world snapshot
- Current market assessment
- Unmet needs
- Vaccines with increased efficacy in the elderly constitute the largest
unmet need
- Experts still see a need for novel influenza treatment and prevention
strategies
- Needle-free administration techniques could make vaccination faster and
more convenient
- Faster and more flexible manufacturing technologies are particularly
important for pandemic vaccine supply
- Antigen sparing is a key focus for pandemic vaccination
- Improved efficacy in children is considered less important by most
experts
INFLUENZA VACCINES - KEY DEVELOPERS, PRODUCTS AND STRATEGIES
- Strategic Overview
- Trends in corporate strategy
- Improved immunogenicity, particularly in the elderly, is a key
development focus
- Alternative delivery routes could increase convenience and efficacy
- Manufacturing capacity continues to play an important role for corporate
strategies
- Vaccine manufacturers are looking to expand to additional geographies
- Pandemic vaccines offer government funding and stockpiling opportunities
- Sanofi Pasteur - the market leaders
- Corporate strategy overview
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- Novartis - the innovators
- Corporate strategy overview
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- GlaxoSmithKline - the lucky third
- Corporate strategy overview
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- AstraZeneca/MedImmune - the niche players
- Corporate strategy
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- CSL - the southern stars
- Corporate strategy
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- Solvay - looking east
- Corporate strategy
- Influenza portfolio assessment
- Manufacturing capacity
- Adjuvants
- Strategic outlook
- Portfolio assessment of other leading companies
- Other seasonal vaccines in development
- Other pandemic vaccines in clinical development (excluding influenza
A(H1N1))
INFLUENZA ANTIVIRALS
- Overview of competitive landscape
- US
- Japan
- 5EU
- Tamiflu (oseltamivir; Roche)
- Relenza (zanamivir; GlaxoSmithKline)
- Drivers of brand choice
- Tamiflu offers a more convenient mode of administration
- Relenza' s better resistance profile could increase the drug' s market
share
- Reports linking Tamiflu with neuropsychiatric events are perceived
negatively by parts of the medical community
- Outlook - balancing of stockpiles likely
- US formulary tier status for leading brands
- Trends in marketing strategies
- Marketing strategy for leading influenza antivirals
- Promotional spend
- Unmet needs
- Pipeline influenza antivirals
- Peramivir (Biocryst, Shionogi, Green Cross)
- CS-8958 (Biota, Daiichi Sankyo)
- Favipiravir/T-705 (Toyama)
- Innovative early stage compounds
THE 2009 INFLUENZA A(H1N1) PANDEMIC
- Background and timeline
- Over the last century, three influenza A pandemics have occurred
- The current influenza A(H1N1) pandemic continues to spread rapidly
across the globe
- Antivirals
- Key challenges for antiviral therapy of influenza A(H1N1)
- Vaccination against influenza A(H1N1)
- Key challenges for vaccine development and administration against
influenza A(H1N1)
- Key needs with regards to influenza A(H1N1) vaccine development and
production
- Established influenza vaccine and treatment providers will draw the
largest commercial benefit out of the current influenza(H1N1) pandemic
- Novartis - indirect benefits for adjuvant technology expected
- GlaxoSmithKline - the allrounders
- Roche - relying on ongoing need for Tamiflu
- Baxter - outpacing the competition in manufacturing
- Sanofi Pasteur - set to gain from capacity lead
- MedImmune - focusing on the US
- CSL - Australia and beyond
- There is room and need for other strategies such as universal vaccines or
influenza antibodies
- Success in universal influenza vaccine development has been limited so
far
- Influenza antibodies could provide a useful tool for the treatment of
severe cases of influenza
BIBLIOGRAPHY
APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
- Standard units
- Forecast methodology
- Datamonitor forecast methodology
- APPENDIX B
- Contributing experts
- Conferences attended
- Report methodology
TABLES
- Table: Influenza vaccine recommendations, seven major markets, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the influenza market, seven
major markets, 2009
- Table: Seven major markets - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast;
2005/06 - 2018/19
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations in key target groups,
US, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the inflammatory bowel
disease market in the US, 2009
- Table: Estimated influenza vaccination rates, US, 2009
- Table: US - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 - 2018/19
- Table: US - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, Japan, 2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key target groups,
Japan, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the influenza market,
Japan, 2009
- Table: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: National influenza vaccine recommendations for individuals
suffering from underlying medical conditions (without regard to age); 5EU, 2009
- Table: Summary of opportunities and threats in the influenza market, 5EU,
2009
- Table: 5EU - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, France, 2009
- Table: Influenza vaccine prices per dose, France, 2005 - 2008
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations, France, 2009
- Table: France - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: France - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently approved and marketed seasonal influenza vaccines,
Germany, 2009
- Table: Influenza vaccine prices per dose, Germany, 2005 - 2008
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key risk groups,
Germany, 2009
- Table: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, Italy, 2009
- Table: Influenza vaccine prices per dose, Italy, 2005-2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key risk groups,
Italy, 2009
- Table: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, Spain, 2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key target groups,
Spain, 2009
- Table: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Currently marketed seasonal influenza vaccines, UK, 2009
- Table: Seasonal influenza vaccine recommendations for key risk groups, UK,
2009
- Table: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 - 2018/19
- Table: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine coverage forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Table: Recent investments in influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity; 2009
- Table: Deals between major flu vaccine players in the Western world and
local manufacturers in emerging markets
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal
influenza vaccines, 2009
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic
influenza vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: Novartis - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal influenza
vaccines, 2009
- Table: Novartis - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic influenza
vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: Novartis - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal
influenza vaccines, 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic
influenza vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: AstraZeneca/MedImmune - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal
influenza vaccines, 2009
- Table: AstraZeneca/MedImmune - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic
influenza vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: MedImmune - licensees for reverse genetics technology in influenza
- Table: AstraZeneca/MedImmune - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise,
2009
- Table: CSL - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal influenza
vaccines, 2009
- Table: CSL - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic influenza vaccines
(excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: CSL - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: Solvay - portfolio and pipeline overview seasonal influenza
vaccines, 2009
- Table: Solvay - portfolio and pipeline overview pandemic influenza
vaccines (excluding H1N1), 2009
- Table: Solvay - SWOT analysis for influenza franchise, 2009
- Table: Other marketed seasonal vaccines across the seven major markets,
July 2009
- Table: Other seasonal vaccines in clinical development across the seven
major markets , July 2009
- Table: Other pandemic vaccines in clinical development (excluding H1N1)
across the seven major markets, July 2009
- Table: Leading influenza antivirals in the seven major markets, 2009
- Table: Tamiflu - drug profile, 2009
- Table: Tamiflu - SWOT analysis
- Table: Relenza - drug profile, 2009
- Table: Relenza - SWOT analysis
- Table: Representative formulary tier status in the US for leading
influenza antivirals, 2009
- Table: Marketing strategies employed by the companies behind the top two
influenza antivirals, 2009
- Table: Key influenza antivirals in late-stage R&D pipeline , 2009
- Table: Peramivir - Drug profile, 2009
- Table: Peramivir - clinical trial summary, 2009
- Table: Peramivir - SWOT analysis
- Table: CS-8958 - drug profile, 2009
- Table: CS-8958 - clinical trial summary, 2009
- Table: CS-8958 - SWOT analysis
- Table: Favipiravir - drug profile, 2009
- Table: Innovative early stage influenza antivirals, July 2009
- Table: Historic influenza A pandemics
- Table: Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic - timeline of events
- Table: Influenza A(H1N1) - cases and deaths across the seven major
markets, July 6, 2009
- Table: Antiviral stockpiles across the seven major markets, July 2009
- Table: Influenza A(H1N1) vaccine orders, seven major markets, July 2009
- Table: Novartis - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: GlaxoSmithKline - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: Baxter - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: Sanofi Pasteur - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: MedImmune - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: CSL - influenza A(H1N1) stockpiling deals, July 2009
- Table: Selected universal influenza vaccines in development, July 2009
FIGURES
- Figure: Geographic distribution of influenza vaccine production
capacities, 2009
- Figure: Global influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity, 1994 - 2008
- Figure: Seven major markets - seasonal influenza vaccine market
forecast; 2005/06 - 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast by country; 2005/6 -
2018/19
- Figure: Vaccine providers for the US market, 2000/2001 - 2008/2009
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group (1), US,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group (2), US,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: US government strategies to foster growth of the national flu
vaccine market
- Figure: Vaccine releases versus timepoint of vaccination, US, 2006/07 and
2007/08
- Figure: Influenza vaccine supply versus demand, US, 2003/2004 - 2008/2009
- Figure: Average seasonal influenza vaccine prices per dose, US, 2002 - 2009
- Figure: US - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: US - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, Japan,
2001/02 - 2005/06
- Figure: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Japan - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Total number of seasonal influenza vaccine doses distributed in
the 27 EU countries, seasons 2003/04 - 2007/08
- Figure: Countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination for the
elderly; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Number of countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination,
by medical condition; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination for pregnant
women; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Countries recommending seasonal influenza vaccination for healthy
household contacts; Europe, 2007
- Figure: Influenza vaccine doses distributed per 100,000 inhabitants of the
EU27 countries versus proportion of the population recommended for vaccination
(EU25), seasons 2003/04 - 2007/08
- Figure: Distribution of seasonal influenza vaccine doses per 100,000
inhabitants in EU27 countries, by country, seasons 2003 - 04 to 2007 - 08
- Figure: Influenza vaccination rates for the elderly aged 65 years and
older, 5EU, seasons 2006/07 and 2007/08
- Figure: Influenza vaccination rates high-risk individuals aged<65
years, 5EU, seasons 2006/07 and 2007/08
- Figure: Influenza vaccination rates in healthcare workers, 5EU, seasons
2006/07 and 2007/08
- Figure: Vaccinated population by age group, 5EU, season 2006/07
- Figure: Use of influenza mass media campaigns across Europe, 2007
- Figure: 5EU - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, France,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: France - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: France - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Cumulative number of doses of seasonal influenza vaccine released,
Germany, 2002/03 - 2008/09
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group,
Germany, 2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Germany - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast;
2005/06 - 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, Italy,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Italy - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, Spain,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Spain - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06
- 2018/19
- Figure: Seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rates by target group, UK,
2005/06 - 2008/09
- Figure: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine market forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: UK - seasonal influenza vaccine population forecast; 2005/06 -
2018/19
- Figure: Influenza vaccine distribution globally and by WHO region
- Figure: Evolution of seasonal influenza vaccine distribution by WHO region
- Figure: Unmet needs in influenza prevention, 2009
- Figure: Comparative positioning of the six leading influenza vaccine
manufacturers, 2009
- Figure: Trends in corporate strategy for influenza vaccine development,
2009
- Figure: Sanofi Pasteur - influenza vaccine sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Sanofi Pasteur - share influenza vaccines of overall vaccine
sales; 2004 - 2008
- Figure: GlaxoSmithKline - influenza vaccine sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: GlaxoSmithKline - influenza vaccines sales' share of overall
vaccine sales; 2004 - 2008
- Figure: AstraZeneca/MedImmune: FluMist sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: FluMist versus injected influenza vaccines - CDC and private
sector costs/dose in the US, 2002 - 08
- Figure: Solvay - influenza vaccine sales, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Pipeline trends in influenza vaccines, June 2009
- Figure: Pipeline focus for seasonal flu vaccine developers, 2009
- Figure: Influenza antivirals - sales and volume use, 7MM, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Influenza antivirals - geographic split of sales and volume use,
7MM, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: US - influenza antiviral market shares, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Japan - influenza antiviral market shares, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: 5EU - influenza antiviral market shares, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Tamiflu - sales and volume use, seven major markets, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Seasonal versus pandemic sales for Tamiflu, global, Q1/2007 -
Q2/2009
- Figure: Relenza - sales and volume use, seven major markets, 2004 - 2008
- Figure: Drivers of brand choice for influenza antivirals, 2009
- Figure: Promotional spend for leading influenza antivirals, seven major
markets, 2005/06 - 2007/08
- Figure: Type of promotional spend for leading influenza antivirals, seven
major markets, 2005/06 - 2007/08
- Figure: Unmet needs in influenza antiviral therapy, 2009
- Figure: Favipiravir: mechanism of action
- Figure: Confirmed influenza A(H1N1) cases globally, July 6, 2009
- Figure: Datamonitor' s patient-based vaccine forecasting model -
influence factors
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