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市場調查報告書
信用緊縮：未見復甦徵兆的EU零售產業 - 2009年第1季/第2季
Credit Crunch Update: No Green Shoots in EU Retailing Q1/2 2009
| 出版商 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日期 |
2009年07月 |
商品編碼 |
96208 |
| 內容資訊 |
英文 70 pages |
| 價格 |
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信用緊縮：未見復甦徵兆的EU零售產業 - 2009年第1季/第2季 是由出版商Datamonitor在2009年07月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含70 pages 價格從美金1910起跳。
本報告書內容包括：隨著失業率提高，景氣未見復甦徵兆的歐洲零售產業的現況及未來動向等。內容綱要摘記如下：
實施概要
經濟概況
- 主要訊息
- GDP前10高國家
- GDP：中間8國
- GDP：最低9國
- 消費支出
- 結構
- 快速減少的通貨膨脹
- HICP（綜合消費者物價指數）年度平均値
- 快速上昇的儲蓄率
- 轉而下跌的歐元利率
- 其他通貨的利率
- 失業率 - 遲行指標
歐洲市場 - 零售支出
主要事例
流通業的最新訊息
策略
- 主要課題
- 如預期地，物價緊縮成為重大的威脅
- 折扣商店及其因應對策更加成為降價的壓力
- 範圍擴大的物價緊縮經濟的威脅
政策因應
- G20及其對零售市場造成的影響：影響消費者及零售業者對未來發展的信心
零售商店的逆轉攻勢
專有名詞集
圖表
Abstract
Introduction
Most consumers in the EU have reached the peak of private indebtedness, as
unemployment rates are rising, consumer confidence is dipping and consumer
credit becomes increasingly hard to get hold of. This brief provides an update
on this contracting economic activity.
Scope of this research
- Macro economic data on 27 markets, structural indicators and forecasts for
each of the 27 EU countries.
- Analysis of the major threats in the market, price developments and the
immediate response of European governments and retailers.
- Detailed chapters on three months of trading updates from the EU, with
recent developments and future outlook.
- Appraisal of strategic issues, Lidl' s latest initiatives and Arcandor' s
insolvency, Germany' s biggest casualty of the crisis so far.
Research and analysis highlights
We find ourselves slogging through the bleakest economic landscape most of us
have known in our lifetimes. Verdict expects that the recession in the EU will
end sometime perhaps as early as 2010. That would make it the longest and
probably deepest downturn since the Great Depression.
Eventually, old and broken down goods will need to be replaced, and the
resulting demand will drive economic and retail sales growth. That said, we
expect the pace of the recovery will be extremely slow. We are not through the
worst yet. We believe that yet more retail casualties such as Arcandor are
around the corner.
We are also sceptical about capacity shifts. While insolvencies are usually
good news for rival surviving retailers as they stand to gain market share, we
are now operating under conditions of severe financial stress and consumer
confidence at rock bottom levels. This means that capacity might simply
disappear altogether as demand collapses.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Learn how difficult market conditions are driving competition among
retailers and what the outlook for EU retail will be in the short to mid-term.
- Understand how evolving consumer behaviour is forcing retailers to develop
new product, sales and marketing strategies in a profoundly changed market.
- Identify the remaining success stories and growth prospects of the key
markets and competitors and benchmark their performance.
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Key Findings
- Main Conclusions
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
- Main Messages
- GDP Top 10
- GDP Top 10 Forecasts - Bleak Outlook
- GDP: Midranking Eight
- GDP Midranking Eight - Growth Erosion
- GDP: Smaller Nine
- GDP Smaller Nine - Growth Erosion Bad For Baltics
- Consumer Expenditure
- Structure
- Inflation Falls Rapidly At End-2008
- HICP Annual Averages
- Savings Rate To Increase Sharply
- Euro Interest Rate Turns Downward
- Other Interest Rates
- Unemployment - Lagging Indicator
EUROPEAN MARKET - RETAIL SPENDING
- Latest Expenditure Trends
MAJOR STORIES
- Lidl starts selling cars
- Arcandor goes bust
CURRENT TRADING UPDATES
- March
- April
- May
- Grocery
- Clothing
- Other sectors
STRATEGIC SECTION
- Key Issues
- As we predicted, Deflation remains the Major Threat
- Discounters and the Reaction Depress Prices Further
- Threat of Deflation in Wider Economy
THE POLICY RESPONSE
- The G20 and its impact on the retail sector: Boosting consumer and
retailer confidence
THE RETAILERS' RESPONSE
- Private label development
GLOSSARY
TABLES
- Table: Monthly HICP rates y-o-y Nov 2008 - Apr 2009
- Table: Monthly Unemployment rates y-o-y Oct 2008 - Mar 2009
- Table: Monthly retail growth rates y-o-y Oct 2008 - Mar 2009
FIGURES
- Figure: GDP: Top 10 countries in European Union 2008e
- Figure: GDP change % forecast for Top 10 EU countries 2008 & 2009
- Figure: GDP: Midsize Eight (€ 100bn+) of other 17 countries in EU
2008e
- Figure: GDP change % forecast for Midsize Eight (€ 100bn+) of other
17 EU countries 2008 & 2009
- Figure: GDP: Smaller Nine (€ 100bn-) of other 17 countries in EU 2008e
- Figure: GDP change % forecast for Smaller Nine (€ 100bn-) of other 17
EU countries 2008 & 2009
- Figure: Co nsumer expenditure of Top 10 EU countries 2007
- Figure: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €
18bn+ 2007
- Figure: Countries among other 17 in EU with consumer expenditure of €
18bn- 2007
- Figure: Consumer expenditure as % of GDP 2007
- Figure: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - annual average growth of
Top 10 EU countries 2007 & 2008
- Figure: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in
EU with annual averages over 4.5% 2007 & 2008
- Figure: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices - countries among other 17 in
EU with annual averages under 4.5% 2007 & 2008
- Figure: Gross household saving % of gross household disposable income
(latest data) 2007
- Figure: ECB interest rates 2005-2009
- Figure: Central bank annual averages for key reference interest rates 2008
- Figure: Alsterhaus Hamburg
- Figure: EU HICP - monthly food price change May 2008-Apr 2009 (y-o-y)
- Figure: Oil spot price FOB weighted by estimated export volume ($/ barrel)
- monthly Mar 2008 - May 2009
- Figure: Downward spiral of grocery prices in 2009
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