歐洲核能文藝復興的預測 是由出版商Datamonitor在2009年07月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含18 pages 價格從美金5695起跳。
歐洲經濟成長、廉價石油、過多能源供應的時代結束了，正進入電力供應減少或不穩定的化石燃油價格等能源環境變化的時代。
本報告書內容包括：實現歐洲核能文藝復興（核能發電重新評價）的促進因素分析、主要發電技術的生產資料、發電成本分析、歐洲各國核能能源狀況、2030年之前的核能發電能力預測等。內容綱要摘記如下：
第1章 DATAMONITOR的觀點
第2章 分析
- 促進新核能結構的因素變化，歐洲核能文藝復興的可能性大為增強
- 因預見2020年之前將過度依賴瓦斯能源，歐洲的核能文藝復興是針對2020年後不均衡的行動方案
- 2020年以後核能將可望取代歐洲的瓦斯火力發電
- 歐洲需要新的核能發電生產能力
- 環保法規更加嚴格，只有核能發電能抵消能源進口的依存度
- 核能發電生命週期的總排放量比其他發電方法低
- 核能發電具有競爭力，也擁有比其他發電方法更多的優點
- 核能比其他化石燃料發電更具成本效益競爭力
- 在歐洲，核能比化石燃料技術更具經濟效益
- 許多核能替代能源作為潔淨基礎電力而言，缺乏可信度
- 政治、環境、技術情勢的變化凸顯出核能的優點
- 為解決依賴進口能源、供應安全、氣候變化等課題，歐洲必須發展高水準的核能發電
- 德國的無核計畫產生能源供應的差距
- 英國在2023年之前預計只會保留19個核能發電爐中的1個，不會有新建的計畫
- 英國的能源政策踏出核能發電的一大步
- 瑞典政府廢止了30年的核能發電廠禁止令
- 目前歐洲27個加盟國當中有14國依賴核能發電
- 歐洲對核能的依賴只會有增無減
- 2030年之前核能發電產量增幅最大的為英國，德國亦是
圖表
Abstract
Introduction
In Europe, times of record economic growth, cheap oil and excess energy
supplies are over. Instead, the energy landscape is one of declining power
supplies and high, volatile fossil fuel prices. These factors - coupled with
increasing energy demand, concerns over climate change, energy import
dependency and security of supply - are coinciding to make the case for
nuclear build much stronger.
Scope of this research
- A review and evaluation of the drivers that are fuelling an increasingly
probable nuclear renaissance across European member states.
- Capacity margin and wind capacity forecasts plus historical power output
data and total emission lifecycle data for the major generation technologies.
- EU power generation cost projections for the major technologies plus a
side by side review of their key respective advantages and limitations.
- A detailed review of the nuclear energy landscape for every relevant
European member state as well as 2030 nuclear capacity forecasts.
Research and analysis highlights
On the road to 2020, Europe will grow overly dependant on gas. New nuclear
generation capacity will be needed to offset ageing nuclear and diminishing
coal and to address increasing energy import dependency. In the face of
increasing environmental legislation, nuclear will also be able to leverage
its strong green credentials.
In Europe, nuclear power generation is competitive and is expected to develop
a greater economic advantage over fossil fuel technologies in the run up to
2030. Nuclear also presents many advantages over other types of power
generation, which all have major downsides and often lack credibility as
sources of clean long-term baseload power.
At present, 14 of Europe' s 27 Member States rely heavily on nuclear power and
that reliance is set to grow. By 2030, net additions of nuclear power capacity
will be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany, where the
planned - albeit improbable - phasing out of nuclear power would result in a
significant energy supply gap.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Quickly determine the extent to which the different European member
states' are directly dependant on nuclear power generation.
- Understand how energy import dependency, security of supply, and climate
change are coinciding to make a strong case for a new nuclear renaissance.
- Benchmark European member states' likely involvement with new nuclear
power generation in the run up to 2030.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
- CATALYST
- SUMMARY
- METHODOLOGY
- SOURCES
ANALYSIS
- The drivers for new nuclear build have evolved and the prospects for a
nuclear renaissance in Europe today are very strong
- Five drivers are fueling an increasingly probable European nuclear
renaissance
- Having grown overly dependant on gas on the road to 2020, Europe' s new
nuclear will address the imbalance post 2020
- Post 2020, nuclear will displace some of Europe' s gas-fired generation
only to find that it is unsuited to wind power generation
- In Europe, new nuclear generation capacity will need to come online to
offset ageing nuclear and diminishing coal
- In the face of increasing environmental legislation, only nuclear power
can truly offset increasing energy import dependency
- Total lifecycle emissions from nuclear power generation are among the
lowest of all of the power generation technologies
- Nuclear power generation is competitive and presents many advantages over
other types of power generation
- EU electricity generation projections suggest that nuclear energy is
cost competitive with fossil fuel generation
- In Europe, nuclear is expected to develop a greater economic advantage
over fossil fuel technologies in the run up to 2030
- Most of the renewable alternatives to nuclear power have major downsides
and lack credibility as sources of clean baseload power
- Shifts in political, environmental and technical landscapes have drawn
out the comparative advantages of nuclear power
- To address the overlapping challenges of energy import dependency,
security of supply and climate change, Europe will move towards greater levels
of nuclear power generation
- The French energy policy model has nuclear power at its core
- In Germany, the planned - albeit improbable - phasing out of nuclear
power would result in a significant energy supply gap
- In the UK, all but one of the 19 reactors will be retired by 2023, with
new generation plants not expected to come
- UK energy policy has taken a clear and decisive step towards nuclear
power generation
- The Swedish government has overturned a near 30-year ban on nuclear
plants
- At present, 14 of Europe' s 27 Member States rely heavily and directly on
nuclear power generation
- European reliance on nuclear is set to grow
- By 2030, net additions of nuclear power generation capacity will be
highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany
FIGURES
- Figure: Today' s drivers for new nuclear build have evolved
- Figure: In the next decade, only gas will fill the gap left by Europe' s
ageing, disenfranchised and environmentally challenged coal fleet
- Figure: By the time new nuclear capacity comes on board in Europe, wind
capacity is expected to have doubled or tripled
- Figure: Capacity margins will not keep pace with future power demand
unless significant new baseload capacity is built
- Figure: In the past decade, EU fossil fuel output growth has offset
nuclear power output contraction, but this trend is likely to reverse post 2020
- Figure: In sharp contrast to fossil fuels, nuclear is a low-carbon energy
source with a small environmental impact, like most renewables
- Figure: The relative costs of generating electricity from coal, gas and
nuclear plants vary considerably from one location to another
- Figure: Nuclear will enjoy comparative economic benefits in countries with
no direct access to low-cost fossil fuels that operate strong carbon penalties
- Figure: Shifts in political, environmental and technical landscapes have
drawn out the comparative advantages of nuclear power
- Figure: From 2020, France will require 40 EPRs to fully replace its
current capacity
- Figure: If Germany proceeds with its nuclear phase-out policy, by 2020 it
will need to import some 25,000MWe of electricity as baseload
- Figure: Power reactors planned and proposed in the UK currently total in
excess of 12GW
- Figure: But, current grid connection agreements for future nuclear plants
could deliver 19GW
- Figure: At present, 14 of Europe' s 27 Member States rely heavily and
directly on nuclear power generation
- Figure: European reliance on nuclear is set to grow
- Figure: By 2030, net additions of nuclear power generation capacity will
be highest in the UK, but could be higher still in Germany
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