英國消費者信用卡市場之預測︰ 2009年第1季

Abstract

Introduction

The consumer credit market performed poorly in the first quarter of 2009 as the credit crunch continued to affect the confidence of borrowers and lenders. This latest edition of Datamonitor' s quarterly outlook series discusses recent developments in the consumer credit market and provides the latest forecasts for the period 2009-2013.

Scope of this research

• Provides the latest market sizing figures for the UK consumer credit market.
• Covers an array of consumer credit lines - unsecured personal loans, credit cards, overdrafts, retail finance and motor finance.
• Considers the latest developments in the UK economy in order to build up three forecast scenarios for the next four years.
• Includes an accompanying interactive Excel model.

Research and analysis highlights

After more than two years of increases in the magnitude of year-on-year falls, unsecured personal loans saw a noticeable uplift in the first quarter which translated into a smaller year-on-year decline as gross advances increased by 14.6% compared to Q4 2008.

Motor finance gross advances saw the largest quarterly improvement between Q1 2009 and Q4 2008. Unsecured personal loans also grew whereas overdrafts, credit cards and retail finance gross advances all dropped in Q1 2009. The largest decline was seen in retail finance.

Datamonitor research shows that consumer attitudes to their finances are adapting to the new conditions, with a large percentage saying that from now on they intend to cut back significantly on their use of credit and save more in the future.

Key reasons to purchase this research

• Review market performance in Q1 2009 to place your own performance in context with the overall market.
• Use Datamonitor' s market forecasts to plan your future strategy with confidence.
• Understand how the ongoing liquidity crisis has affected lenders and the overall economy.

Table of Contents

DATAMONITOR VIEW

• CATALYST
• SUMMARY

ANALYSIS

• The reduction in consumer credit slowed in the first quarter of 2009
  • The consumer credit market declined for the fifth consecutive period in Q1 2009
  • The rate of decline seen across unsecured personal loans and motor finance slowed in Q1 2009
• Despite drastic moves by the Bank of England, lenders and borrowers are shying away from credit products
  • The Bank of England has moved towards a policy of quantitative easing
  • Lenders continue to pursue conservative strategies as the prevailing economic conditions remain difficult
  • Consumers are becoming more aware of the need to organize their finances
• Datamonitor expects conditions to remain tough during 2009 before improving in 2010
  • Datamonitor' s forecasting model explained
  • Further falls in GDP and soaring unemployment show that the UK economy remains in turmoil
  • Under the Datamonitor scenario, all credit products will have a difficult 2009
  • Datamonitor has also considered two additional scenarios
• The government is introducing new measures to regulate the consumer credit market
  • The government is looking to prevent the unsolicited raising of credit card limits
  • The OFT is conducting a review on the fairness of competition in the consumer credit market
  • Consumers are turning to loan sharks in desperation as the credit crunch continues to bite

APPENDIX

• Supplementary data
• Definitions
• Bank of England base rate
  • Balances outstanding
  • CAGR
  • CCJ
  • Consumer credit
  • Gross advances
  • OFT
  • Overdraft
• Methodology
• Forecasting methodology
  • Choice of economic variables
  • Model outputs
  • Bespoke scenario-based forecasting
• Further reading
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer

TABLES

• Table: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances outstanding in the UK, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009
• Table: UK consumer credit gross advances by product, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009 (£m)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13: Datamonitor scenario
• Table: Updated Datamonitor view consumer credit forecast by product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated pessimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated optimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
• Table: UK consumer credit balances outstanding by product, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009 (£m)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13: pessimistic scenario
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13: optimistic scenario

FIGURES

• Figure: Both gross advances and balances outstanding continued to decline on a year-on-year basis
• Figure: All products experienced negative year-on-year growth in Q1 2009
• Figure: The rate of interest paid for a loan of £5,000 grew by 44% over two years
• Figure: The majority of respondents said they plan to save more in the future