可再生能源產業動向：太陽光發電 是由出版商Datamonitor在2009年05月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含20 pages 價格從美金2795起跳。
太陽能源是全球可利用的豐富可再生能源，但至今仍未大規模地被利用。2009年的發展雖不大，但太陽能源的中期、長期成長機會仍舊看好。
本報告書內容包括：全球太陽光發電、可再生能源技術相關資料、太陽光發電（PV）的生產成本、設備成本、太陽光發電成本等資料。內容綱要摘記如下：
第1章 DATAMONITOR的觀點
第2章 分析
- 太陽光發電轉變成過去前提瓦解的動態環境
- 全球可再生能源產業因政治決策、輔助金、技術進歩的影響而快速成長
- 被視為非長年經濟的PV市場因綠色化的表現而快速發展
- 2008年特別是西班牙和德國因政治決策及輔助金而快速發展，在全球PV市場中算是例外的一年
- 矽晶PV、薄膜PV、集光型太陽熱發電在成本面競爭
- 對太陽光發電的投資在過去20年當中雖不充分，但目前條件逐漸成熟
- 技術提昇和化石燃料成本上漲使得太陽光發電接近電網平價的目標
- 太陽光發電市場的成長取決於政治框架及降低成本
- 在歐洲除了直接的輔助金之外，還有9個促進太陽光發電發展的機構
- 但是直接的輔助金能有效促進太陽光發電市場的成長
- 太陽光發電技術價格仍非常高昂
- 太陽光發電為達真正的電網平價，太陽光發電成本、碳成本、電力價格的發展是主要決定條件
- 技術成熟、政策刺激、投資家的興趣提高可望促進全球性成長，但預計產業2020年的目標仍將無法達成
- 快速發展的太陽光發電雖然有其課題，但機會更多
- 對西班牙太陽光發電的輔助計畫變更正威脅到產業的發展
- 就算再高，2009年PV市場的成長將回到2001年的水準
- 長期而言，太陽光發電對滿足EU27國電力需求而言非常重要
- 態度或行動可望與零碳的太陽能源優點相輔相成
- 太陽光發電比傳統的發電方式更快速發展
- 太陽能源只不過是EU20-20-20氣候變化政治目標的其中之一
- 2010年的成長水準可望提昇，但在2020年之前滿足EU電力需求12％的目標將無法達成
- 針對分析師的問題
- Datamonitor的諮詢顧問
- 免責事項
Abstract
Introduction
Solar energy is the most abundant source of renewable power available
globally, yet its widescale deployment has progressed only very slowly.
Despite the depressed outlook in 2009, solar energy promises significant
medium and long-term growth opportunity. Yet, until true demand-pull can be
created, the industry remains at the mercy of government programs that drive
artificially stimulated demand.
Scope of this research
- Ten years worth of annual global power output data, for both conventional
and all mainstream renewable technologies.
- Global cumulative and new annual installed solar capacity data since 1998
and a breakdown of the ten largest markets across both metrics.
- Summary data relating to PV production costs, plant costs, solar
electricity generating costs and the main direct and indirect subsidy
mechanisms.
- A SWOT analysis, an overview of the embattled Spanish market, 2009 solar
market growth estimates and a review of growth expectations to 2013.
Research and analysis highlights
2008 was an exceptional year for the PV market, driven by political will and
strong subsidies, mainly in Spain and Germany. However, a change in the
Spanish solar subsidy is now threatening the development of an entire sector.
At best, solar PV market growth in 2009 will fall back to 2001 levels the
lowest levels on record for the past decade.
There are nine main EU-sponsored mechanisms that promote the development of
solar power by means other than direct subsidy, yet the direct subsidy feed-in
tariff is the most powerful mechanism to rapidly grow grid-connected solar
power markets. Under the best possible scenario, however, solar energy is
still a few years away from true grid parity.
Solar energy is one of only three means of achieving the EU' s 20-20-20 climate
change ambitions. Solar also has a role to play in meeting future increases in
power demand across EU Member States. Ultimately, growth levels are expected
to pick up in 2010, yet the industry' s target of 12% of final EU electricity
demand by 2020 are unlikely to be met.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Quickly determine and assimilate the most critical developments and issues
that characterize the global solar market today and in years to come.
- Benchmark the relative appeal of solar energy against other renewable and
conventional types of power generation.
- Understand how global growth will be impacted by technology maturity,
policy incentives and investor appetite, and tailor your strategy accordingly.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
CATALYST
SUMMARY
SOURCES
ANALYSIS
- Solar operates in a dynamic environment in which long-held assumptions are
being eroded
- The global renewable energy industry is growing rapidly on the back of
political will, subsidies and technological advancements
- Long derided as uneconomic, the nascent solar PV market is also gaining
significant ground thanks to its strong green credentials
- 2008 was an exceptional year for the global PV market, driven by
political will and strong subsidies, mainly in Spain and Germany
- Silicon wafer-based PV, thin-film PV and concentrated solar thermal
power are competing for cost leadership
- There has been a lack of solar thermal investment over the past 20
years, but conditions now seem right for it to prosper
- As technologies improve and the cost of fossil fuel electricity rises,
solar energy gets closer to grid parity
- The extent and speed of this emerging sector' s growth is dependent on
political frameworks and its ability to keep driving down the cost of solar
power
- There are nine main EU-sponsored mechanisms that promote the development
of solar power by means other than direct subsidy
- Still, the direct subsidy FiT is the most powerful mechanism to rapidly
grow grid-connected solar power markets
- Solar technologies are still expensive and, for the moment, remain more
expensive than most competing technologies
- For solar power generation, true grid parity depends upon the evolution
of solar power costs, carbon costs and power prices
- Strong global growth is likely to continue on the back of technology
maturity, policy incentives and heightened investor appetite, yet the
industry' s 2020 targets are unlikely to be met
- Having developed at a rapid pace, solar now faces key challenges, many
of which will be offset by even larger opportunities
- A change in Spanish solar subsidy levels is threatening the development
of an entire and largely undiversified industry
- At best, global solar PV market growth in 2009 will fall back to 2001
levels - the lowest levels on record for the past decade
- In the longer term, solar has a role to play in meeting future sustained
increases in power demand across EU27 Member States
- Attitudes and behaviors will continue to be aligned with the benefits
that zero carbon solar energy can bring
- To offset tight capacity margins, solar power generation can be deployed
more rapidly than conventional power generation
- Most importantly, solar energy is one of only three means of achieving
the EU' s 20-20-20 climate change political ambitions
- Growth levels are expected to pick up in 2010, yet the industry' s target
of 12% of final EU electricity demand by 2020 will not be met
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
FIGURES
- Figure: Wind power, biomass and solar have been the real driving forces
behind the growth in renewable power generation
- Figure: The global solar PV market has been booming over the last decade
and is likely to continue this trend in the coming years
- Figure: In 2008, with more than 5.6GW of installed capacity, the global
solar PV market had more than doubled compared to 2007 (2.4GW)
- Figure: Technology advances and changing industrial processes are driving
costs down and PV adoption (notably thin film) up
- Figure: There is little doubt that, with sufficient investment, solar
thermal generation can ultimately provide an economical source of power
- Figure: For solar power to reach grid parity, production costs need to be
reduced considerably so that it can penetrate the major electricity markets
- Figure: Currently, RES targets contribute most to the development of solar
energy
- Figure: Direct subsidy FiTs also facilitate R&D funding, greater solar
production levels and lower costs
- Figure: California - one of the most favorable regions for solar power
generation - had comparatively high installation costs in 2007
- Figure: In 2007, solar power generation in California was still a few
years away from true grid parity
- Figure: A SWOT analysis reveals several challenges which are expected to
be offset by even larger opportunities in years to come
- Figure: The economic downturn and the Spanish market freeze will cause a
drop in market growth: +4,620MW forecast in 2009 (+5,559MW in 2008)
- Figure: Over the next seven years, power consumption levels are expected
to rise in all but two European countries
- Figure: Member States highlighted in the top-right hand corner show
concern about global warming and are willing to act accordingly
- Figure: Solar can play a part in offsetting tight capacity margins in
countries such as Finland, Slovakia and Hungary (2008 capacity margin data)
- Figure: In 2008, solar, wind and energy efficiency measures failed to meet
EU emission targets: EU ETS installations were short by 145mt CO2
- Figure: It is estimated that, with adequate support mechanisms, the market
can grow at an annual average of 32% from 2008 to 2013
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