Abstract
Introduction
Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face
of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and
broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players
throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the
exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is
likely to change.
Scope
*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and
demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity
benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores
will change by 2012.
Highlights
The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories:
Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third
Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation,
Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information,
Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)
Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the
relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures,
player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of
operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power
stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites
Reasons to Purchase
*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and
related energy markets from a single source.
*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends,
identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by
gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
4
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 5
Gas Infrastructure 11
Pipelines
11
Storage 11
Electricity Market Overview 12
Industry Landscape
12
Retail Market Players 12
Regulation 12
Wholesale Environment
14
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 15
Electricity
Infrastructure 20
Generation Capacity 20
Electricity Networks 21
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 23
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers
a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive
Intensity 23
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is.
This has applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and
established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their
market share from new entrants. 23
The MCI Index assesses markets as they
stood in early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July
2012, five years after full market opening 23
The MCI assessment draws on
nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 24
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 25
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 26
Slovakia' s gas
position remains weak over the forecast period 26
The monopolistic nature
of the Slovak gas market limits competition 27
Market framework metrics
doesn' t show any significant improvement 27
Effectiveness of Regulator
[2009: 3/10 2012: 3.5/10] 27
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 2.5/10
2012: 3/10] 27
Pricing Regime [2009: 4/10 2012: 5/10] 28
Supplier push
metrics remain low over the forecast period 28
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2008:1/10 2010: 1/10] 28
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009:
1/10 2012: 1/10] 28
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10]
28
Lack of consumer awareness prevents switching 28
Access to Market
Information and Assistance [2009: 0.5/10 2012: 0.5/10] 28
Consumer
Representation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1/10] 28
Propensity to Switch [2009:
0.1/10 2012: 2/10] 28
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 29
The
competitive intensity ranking of Slovakia' s power market will deteriorate over
the period 29
Slovakia' s power position will be impacted by Customer Pull
and Supplier push metrics 30
Market Framework metrics will remain higher
of all the other metrics 30
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 3/10 2012:
4/10] 30
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10] 30
Pricing Regime [2009: 4/10 2012: 5/10] 31
Concentration in the wholesale
market and an undeveloped trading market pull the Supplier Push metrics down
31
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2/10] 31
The
wholesale market in Slovakia is still dominated by Slovenske elektrarne a.s.
(SE a.s.) covering around 85% of entire electricity generation. The company
has two nuclear power plants, two thermal power plants and 34 hydroelectric
power plants. Italian company, Enel, has a 66% stake in SE a.s, while the
state run National Property Fund holds a 34% stake. As such, the wholesale
market remains highly concentrated, with little prospect of meaningful
fragmentation over the forecast period. 31
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 6/10 2012: 6/10] 31
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10]
31
Customer Pull metrics will remain relatively low due to low levels of
consumer awareness and switching 31
Access to Market Information and
Assistance [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10] 31
Consumer Representation [2009:
2/10 2012: 3/10] 31
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012:1/10] 31
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 33
MCI Scores Summary 33
MCI
Scoring Scales 36
APPENDIX 41
List of power stations in Slovakia
41
Definitions 42
Ask the analyst 43
Datamonitor consulting 43
Disclaimer 43
List of Tables
Table 1: Slovakia major gas retail
market players 2
Table 2: Slovakia gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e
6
Table 3: Slovakia gas transmission pipelines 11
Table 4: Slovakia
gas storage sites 11
Table 5: Slovakia major power retail players 12
Table 6: Slovakia power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 16
Table 7:
Slovakia system capacity 22
Table 8: Market Competitive Intensity,
Slovakia 2009 and 2012 33
Table 9: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012
34
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 35
Table 11:
Slovakia power generation assets 41
List of Figures
Figure 1: Major
gas retail players market share in the B2B segment, 2008 3
Figure 2: Major
gas retail players market share in the B2C segment, 2008 4
Figure 3:
Slovakia indigenous gas production, 1990-2008e 7
Figure 4: Slovakia gas
import supply sources, 2008e 8
Figure 5: Slovakia gas sectoral
consumption, 2008e 9
Figure 6: Slovakia gas consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 10
Figure 7: Slovakia power production by fuel type,
1993-2008e 17
Figure 8: Slovakia power production by fuel type, 2008e
18
Figure 9: Slovakia power sectoral consumption, 2008e 19
Figure 10:
Slovakia power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 20
Figure 11:
Slovakia power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 21
Figure 12: MCI
Assessment Scale 23
Figure 13: MCI Assessment Framework 24
Figure 14:
MCI Scales 25
Figure 15: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 26
Figure 16: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Slovakia 27
Figure 17: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 29
Figure
18: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Slovakia 30
Figure 19: Market
Competitive Intensity, Slovakia 32
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 36
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 37
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
37
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
38
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 38
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 39
Figure 26:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 39
Figure 27: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 40
Figure 28: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 40
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