Abstract
Introduction
Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face
of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and
broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players
throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the
exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is
likely to change.
Scope
*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and
demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity
benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores
will change by 2012.
Highlights
The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories:
Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third
Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation,
Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information,
Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)
Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the
relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures,
player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of
operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power
stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites
Reasons to Purchase
*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and
related energy markets from a single source.
*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends,
identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by
gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 8
Pipelines
8
Storage 10
Electricity Market Overview 11
Industry Landscape
11
Retail Market Players 11
Regulation 11
Wholesale Environment
13
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 14
Electricity
Infrastructure 18
Generation Capacity 18
Electricity Networks 19
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 21
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers
a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive
Intensity 21
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is.
This has applications for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and
established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their
market share from new entrants. 21
The MCI Index assesses markets as they
stood in early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July
2012, five years after full market opening 21
The MCI assessment draws on
nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 22
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 23
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 24
Like the power market,
Romania' s gas market achieves a higher score that other more developed
economies in the region 24
Romania' s gas market score is undermined by a
weak Traded Market Maturity metric and weak Customer Pull metrics 25
Romania' s Market Framework metrics show little improvement over the forecast
period 25
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 5/10 2012: 5.5/10] 25
Ease
of Third Party Access [2009: 5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 25
Pricing Regime [2009:
3/10 2012: 4/10] 26
Romania' s Supplier Push metrics show only minimal
increases during the forecast period 26
Wholesale Market Fragmentation
[2009: 5.5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 26
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 5/10
2012: 5.5/10] 26
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1/10] 26
None of Romania' s Customer Pull metrics rise above the bottom end of the scale
by the end of the forecast period 26
Access to Market Information [2009:
3/10 2012: 3.5 /10] 26
Consumer Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10]
27
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 27
Electricity Market
Competitive Intensity 28
Romania' s score is above those seen in other,
more developed, economies 28
Weak Customer Pull metrics curtails the
overall power score 29
Romania' s Market Framework metrics are driven by
the existence of the wholesale market and an efficient TPA regime 29
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 4.5/10 2012: 5/10] 29
Ease of Third
Party Access [2009: 7.5/10 2012: 8.5/10] 30
Pricing Regime [2009: 4/10
2012: 5/10] 30
Romania' s Supplier Push metrics are driven by fragmentation
in the generation market and the existence of the OPCOM market 30
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 6/10 2012: 6.5/10] 30
Retail Market
Fragmentation [2009: 8/10 2012: 9/10] 30
Traded Market Maturity [2009:
6/10 2012: 8/10] 30
Customer Pull metrics are likely to remain low in both
2009 and 2012 31
Access to Market Information [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10]
31
Consumer Representation [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10] 31
Propensity to
Switch [2009: 3/10 2012: 4/10] 31
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX
33
MCI Scores Summary 33
MCI Scoring Scales 36
APPENDIX 41
List of power stations in Romania 41
Definitions 44
Ask the analyst
46
Datamonitor consulting 46
Disclaimer 46
List of Tables
Table 1: Romania major gas retail market players 2
Table 2: Romania gas
supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 3: Romania gas transmission
lines 9
Table 4: Romania gas storage sites 10
Table 5: Romania major
power retail market players 11
Table 6: Romania power supply and demand
balance, 2007-08e 14
Table 7: Romania power transmission lines 20
Table 8: Market Competitive Intensity, Romania 2009 and 2012 33
Table 9:
MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 34
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe
2009 and 2012 35
Table 11: Romania power generation assets 41
List of
Figures
Figure 1: Romania indigenous gas production 1990-2008e 5
Figure 2: Romania gas import supply sources, 2008e 6
Figure 3: Romania gas
sectoral consumption, 2008e 7
Figure 4: Romania gas consumption, trends
and forecast, 1990-2020f 8
Figure 5: Romania power production by fuel
type, 1994-2008e 15
Figure 6: Romania power production by fuel type, 2008e
16
Figure 7: Romania power sectoral consumption, 2008e 17
Figure 8:
Romania power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 18
Figure 9:
Romania power generation capacity by fuel type 19
Figure 10: MCI
Assessment Scale 21
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 22
Figure 12:
MCI Scales 23
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 24
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Romania 25
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 28
Figure
16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Romania 29
Figure 17: Market
Competitive Intensity, Romania 32
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 36
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 36
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
37
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
38
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 38
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 39
Figure 24:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 39
Figure 25: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 40
Figure 26: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 40
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