Abstract
Introduction
Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face
of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and
broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players
throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the
exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is
likely to change.
Scope
*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and
demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity
benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores
will change by 2012.
Highlights
The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories:
Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third
Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation,
Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information,
Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)
Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the
relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures,
player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of
operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power
stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites
Reasons to Purchase
*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and
related energy markets from a single source.
*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends,
identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by
gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
4
Wholesale Environment 5
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 5
Gas
Infrastructure 10
Pipelines 10
Storage 11
Electricity Market
Overview 13
Industry Landscape 13
Retail Market Players 13
Regulation 15
Wholesale Environment 16
Electricity Supply and Demand
Analysis 17
Electricity Infrastructure 21
Generation Capacity 21
Electricity Networks 22
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 24
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the
development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 24
The MCI Index shows
how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new
entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former
monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants.
24
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and
forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after
full market opening 24
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics
grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer
Pull 25
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the
comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 26
Gas
Market Competitive Intensity 27
Hungary' s gas position remains unchanged
relative to the other markets surveyed over the forecast period 27
Strong
Market Framework factors support the overall gas score and offset weakness in
other metrics 28
All of Hungary' s Market Framework factors achieve scores
at the upper end of the scale 28
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 6.5/10
2012: 8/10] 28
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 46/10 2012: 6/10] 29
Pricing Regime [2009: 5/10 2012: 5.5/10 29
Supplier Push metrics remain
constrained during the forecast period as a legacy of pre-liberalization
market dynamics 29
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10]
29
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 5/10 2012: 5.5/10] 29
Traded
Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 29
None of the Customer Pull
metrics move past their current low levels by the end of the forecast period
30
Access to Market Information [2009: 1/10 2012: 2/10] 30
Consumer
Representation [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2/10] 30
Propensity to Switch [2009:
1.5/10 2012: 2.5/10] 30
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 31
Hungary' s power position remains in the centre range of markets surveyed
31
Hungary' s overall power score is constrained by parts of the Customer
Pull metric 32
Development of the Market Framework metrics remains modest
both at the current time and in the near term future 32
Effectiveness of
Regulator [2009: 6.5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 32
Ease of Third Party Access [2009:
5.5/10 2012: 6/10] 33
Pricing Regime [2009: 7/10 2012: 8/10] 33
Hungary' s Supplier Push metrics are constrained by the dominance of MVM in the
wholesale arena and the lack of a traded market 33
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 5/10 2012: 5/10] 33
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2.5/10] 33
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012:
5/10] 33
Customer Pull metrics are unlikely to develop to any significant
degree over the forecast period 34
Access to Market Information [2009:
2/10 2012: 3/10] 34
Consumer Representation [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 4/10]
34
Propensity to Switch [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 5/10] 34
Near term power
sector commercial opportunities are largely in the generation part of the
value chain 35
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 36
MCI Scores
Summary 36
MCI Scoring Scales 39
APPENDIX 44
List of power
stations in Hungary 44
Definitions 45
Ask the analyst 46
Datamonitor consulting 46
Disclaimer 46
List of Tables
Table 1:
Hungary major gas retail market players 2
Table 2: Hungary gas supply and
demand balance, 2007-08e 6
Table 3: Hungary gas transmission line 11
Table 4: Hungary gas storage sites 12
Table 5: Hungary major power retail
market players 13
Table 6: Hungary power supply and demand balance,
2007-08e 17
Table 7: Hungary power transmission lines 23
Table 8:
Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 2009 and 2012 36
Table 9: MCI
Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 37
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe
2009 and 2012 38
Table 11: Hungary power generation assets 44
List of
Figures
Figure 1: Major gas retail players market share in B2B segment,
2008 3
Figure 2: Major gas retail players market share in B2C segment,
2008 4
Figure 3: Hungary indigenous gas production 1990-2008e 7
Figure
4: Hungary gas import supply sources, 2008e 8
Figure 5: Hungary gas
sectoral consumption, 2008e 9
Figure 6: Hungary gas consumption, trends
and forecast, 1990-2020f 10
Figure 7: Major power retail players market
share in B2B segment, 2008 14
Figure 8: Major power retail players market
share in B2C segment, 2008 15
Figure 9: Hungary power production by fuel
type, 1990-2008e 18
Figure 10: Hungary power production by fuel type,
2008e 19
Figure 11: Hungary power sectoral consumption, 2008e 20
Figure 12: Hungary power consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 21
Figure 13: Hungary power generation capacity by fuel type 22
Figure 14:
MCI Assessment Scale 24
Figure 15: MCI Assessment Framework 25
Figure
16: MCI Scales 26
Figure 17: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 27
Figure 18: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 28
Figure 19: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 31
Figure
20: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Hungary 32
Figure 21: Market
Competitive Intensity, Hungary 35
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 39
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 39
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
40
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
40
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 41
Figure 27: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 41
Figure 28:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 42
Figure 29: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 42
Figure 30: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 43
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