Abstract
Introduction
Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face
of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and
broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players
throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the
exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is
likely to change.
Scope
*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and
demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity
benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores
will change by 2012.
Highlights
The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories:
Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third
Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation,
Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information,
Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)
Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the
relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures,
player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of
operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power
stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites
Reasons to Purchase
*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and
related energy markets from a single source.
*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends,
identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by
gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Regulation 2
Wholesale Environment
4
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 5
Gas Infrastructure 9
Pipelines
9
Storage 12
LNG 14
Electricity Market Overview 15
Industry
Landscape 15
Regulation 15
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis
17
Electricity Infrastructure 21
Generation Capacity 21
Electricity Networks 23
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 25
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the
development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 25
The MCI Index shows
how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new
entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former
monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants.
25
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and
forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after
full market opening 25
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics
grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer
Pull 26
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the
comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 27
Gas
Market Competitive Intensity 28
Germany' s gas metrics are currently driven
by the impact of the new regulator and the lack of concentration in the retail
market 28
A strong increase in Germany' s gas metrics is expected over the
forecast period 29
Weaknesses in Germany' s Market Framework metrics will
be resolved by 2010 29
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 8/10 2012:
9.5/10] 29
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 6/10 2012: 7.5/10] 30
Pricing Regime [2009: 6/10 2012: 6.5/10] 30
The large number of municipal
energy retailers drives the Supplier Push metrics 30
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 5/10] 30
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 8.5/10 2012: 9/10] 30
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 3/10 2012:
7.5/10] 30
Germany will see an improvement in its Customer Pull metrics by
2012 31
Access to Market Information [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 8/10] 31
Consumer Representation [2009: 8/10 2012: 8/10] 31
Propensity to Switch
[2009: 2/10 2012: 3.5/10] 31
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity
32
Germany' s power scores are relatively strong over all metrics other
than Propensity to Switch 32
Most of Germany' s power scores are in the
upper half of the scale 33
The creation of a regulatory body has revived
Germany' s Market Framework scores 33
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009:
8/10 2012: 9.5/10] 33
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 7.5/10 2012: 8/10]
34
Pricing Regime [2009: 5.5/10 2012: 7/10] 34
Improvement can be seen
in the Supplier Push metrics over the forecast period 34
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 6/10 2012: 6.5/10] 34
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 34
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 8/10 2012:
10/10] 34
Customer Pull metrics are likely to remain low for the
foreseeable future 34
Access to Market Information [2009: 7.5/10 2012:
8.5/10] 34
Consumer Representation [2009: 8/10 2012: 8/10] 35
Propensity to Switch [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2.5/10] 35
The established nature
of the market means exploiting commercial opportunities will remain
challenging 35
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 36
MCI Scores
Summary 36
MCI Scoring Scales 39
APPENDIX 44
List of power
stations in Germany 44
Definitions 51
Ask the analyst 52
Datamonitor consulting 52
Disclaimer 52
List of Tables
Table 1:
Germany gas supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 5
Table 2: Germany gas
transmission pipelines 11
Table 3: Germany gas storage sites 12
Table
4: German LNG terminals 14
Table 5: Germany power supply and demand
balance, 2007-08e 17
Table 6: German system capacity 24
Table 7:
Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 2009 and 2012 36
Table 8: MCI
Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 37
Table 9: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009
and 2012 38
Table 10: Germany power generation assets 44
List of
Figures
Figure 1: Germany indigenous gas production, 1990-2008e 6
Figure 2: Germany gas import supply sources, 2008e 7
Figure 3: Germany gas
sectoral consumption, 2008e 8
Figure 4: Germany gas consumption, trends
and forecasts, 1990-2020f 9
Figure 5: Germany power production by fuel
type, 1990-08e 18
Figure 6: Germany power production by fuel type, 2008e
19
Figure 7: Germany power sectoral consumption, 2008e 20
Figure 8:
Germany power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 21
Figure 9:
German power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 23
Figure 10: MCI
Assessment Scale 25
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 26
Figure 12:
MCI Scales 27
Figure 13: European Power Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 28
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 29
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 32
Figure
16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 33
Figure 17: Market
Competitive Intensity, Germany 35
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 39
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 40
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
40
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
41
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 41
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 42
Figure 24:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 42
Figure 25: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 43
Figure 26: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 43
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