Abstract
Introduction
Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face
of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and
broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players
throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the
exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is
likely to change.
Scope
*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and
demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity
benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores
will change by 2012.
Highlights
The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories:
Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third
Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation,
Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information,
Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)
Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the
relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures,
player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of
operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power
stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites
Reasons to Purchase
*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and
related energy markets from a single source.
*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends,
identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by
gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Regulation
2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 5
Pipelines
5
Electricity Market Overview 7
Industry Landscape 7
Retail Market
Players 7
Regulation 7
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 9
Electricity Infrastructure 13
Generation Capacity 13
Electricity
Networks 14
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 16
Datamonitor' s
MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy
Market Competitive Intensity 16
The MCI Index shows how competitive a
particular market is. This has applications for both new entrants seeking to
enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents
seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 16
The MCI Index
assesses markets as they stood in early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely
to be prevailing in July 2012, five years after full market opening. 16
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad
clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 17
Each of the
nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse
markets (see appendix for more details) 18
Gas Market Competitive
Intensity 19
Little development in Estonia' s gas score is seen over the
forecast period 19
Limited viability currently exists for new players in
the Estonian gas market 20
Estonia' s gas Market Framework factors will
remain modest 20
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10]
20
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10] 21
Pricing
Regime [2009: 6/10 2012: 6/10] 21
Supplier Push metrics are all at the
bottom end of the scale in the current climate 21
Wholesale Market
Fragmentation [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1.5/10] 21
Retail Market Fragmentation
[2009: 0.1/10 2012: 1/10] 21
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012:
0.1/10] 21
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower range of the
scale 21
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2009: 0.5/10 2012:
1/10] 21
Consumer Representation [2009: 1/10 2012: 1.5/10] 21
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.5/10] 22
Electricity Market
Competitive Intensity 23
The existence of the derogation and the dominance
of Eesti Energia curtail Estonia' s score 23
Scope for new entrants to the
Estonian power markets is largely non-exsitent 24
The Market Framework
metrics are the main constituent of Estonia' s overall score 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 3/10] 24
Ease of Third
Party Access [2009: 1.5/10 2012: 2/10] 24
Pricing Regime [2009: 1/10 2012:
2/10] 25
The dominance of Eesti Energia curtails the Supplier Push scores
25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 0.5/10 2012: 0.5/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 1/10 2012: 1.5/10] 25
Traded Market
Maturity [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 25
Customer Pull metrics are
irrelevant in the current market structure 25
Access to Market Information
and Assistance [2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 25
Consumer Representation
[2009: 0.1/10 2012: 0.1/10] 25
Propensity to Switch [2009: 0.1/10 2012:
0.5/10] 25
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 27
MCI Scores
Summary 27
MCI Scoring Scales 30
APPENDIX 35
List of power
stations in Estonia 35
Definitions 35
Ask the analyst 36
Datamonitor consulting 36
Disclaimer 36
List of Tables
Table 1:
Estonia major gas retail players 2
Table 2: Estonia gas supply and demand
balance, 2007-08e 3
Table 3: Estonia gas transmission pipelines 6
Table 4: Estonia major power retail players 7
Table 5: Estonia power
supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 9
Table 6: Estonia system capacity
15
Table 7: Market Competitive Intensity, Germany 2009 and 2012 27
Table 8: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 28
Table 9: MCI
Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 29
Table 10: Estonia power generation
assets 35
List of Figures
Figure 1: Estonia gas sectoral
consumption, 2008e 4
Figure 2: Estonia gas consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 5
Figure 3: Estonia power production by fuel type,
1990-2008e 10
Figure 4: Estonia power production by fuel type, 2008e
11
Figure 5: Estonia power sectoral consumption, 2008e 12
Figure 6:
Estonia power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 13
Figure 7:
Estonia power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 14
Figure 8: MCI
Assessment Scale 16
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Framework 17
Figure 10:
MCI Scales 18
Figure 11: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 19
Figure 12: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Estonia 20
Figure 13: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 23
Figure
14: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Estonia 24
Figure 15: Market
Competitive Intensity, Estonia 26
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 30
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 31
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
31
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
32
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 33
Figure 22:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 33
Figure 23: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 34
Figure 24: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 34
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