Abstract
Introduction
Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face
of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and
broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players
throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the
exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is
likely to change.
Scope
*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and
demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity
benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores
will change by 2012.
Highlights
The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories:
Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third
Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation,
Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information,
Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)
Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the
relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures,
player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of
operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power
stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites
Reasons to Purchase
*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and
related energy markets from a single source.
*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends,
identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by
gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Switching
2
Regulation 3
Mergers and Acquisitions 3
Wholesale Environment
3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 4
Gas Infrastructure 9
Pipelines
9
Storage 11
Electricity Market Overview 12
Industry Landscape
12
Retail Market Players 12
Switching 12
Regulation 13
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 14
Electricity Infrastructure
19
Generation Capacity 19
Electricity Networks 20
Competitive
Intensity Analysis Overview 22
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust
framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
22
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has
applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established
players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share
from new entrants. 22
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in
early 2009 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five
years after full market opening 22
The MCI assessment draws on nine
underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework;
Supplier Push; Customer Pull 23
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment
scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more
details) 24
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 25
Strong Market
Framework factors help Denmark maintain a position towards the top of the MCI
gas rankings 25
All of Denmark' s Market Framework metrics score at the
upper end of the scale 26
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 8/10 2012:
8.5/10] 26
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 10/10 2012: 10/10] 27
Pricing Regime [2009: 10/10 2012: 10/10] 27
Denmark' s Supplier Push
metrics are constrained by the lack of fragmentation in both the wholesale and
retail arenas 27
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2.5/10 2012:
3.5/10] 27
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 5/10] 27
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 3.5/10 2012: 7/10] 27
All of Denmark' s
Customer Pull metrics remain modest 28
Access to Market Information and
Assistance [2009: 4.5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 28
Consumer Representation [2009:
4.5/10 2012: 5/10] 28
Propensity to Switch [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 28
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 29
Denmark leads Europe in terms
of power market competitive intensity 29
The maturity of the Danish power
market helps create relatively strong Market Framework scores 30
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 7/10 2012: 7/10] 30
Ease of Third Party
Access [2009: 10/10 2012: 10/10] 31
Pricing Regime [2009: 9/10 2012: 9/10]
31
All of Denmark' s Supplier Push metrics score at the upper end of the
scale 31
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 7/10 2012: 8/10] 31
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 8/10 2012: 8/10] 31
Traded Market
Maturity [2009: 10/10 2012: 10/10] 31
Customer Pull metrics are
constrained by the low switching propensity 31
Access to Market
Information and Assistance [2009: 7.5/10 2012: 8/10] 31
Consumer
Representation [2009: 6/10 2012: 7/10] 32
Propensity to Switch [2009:
3.5/10 2012: 4/10] 32
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 33
MCI
Scores Summary 33
MCI Scoring Scales 36
APPENDIX 41
List of power
stations in Denmark 41
Definitions 44
Ask the analyst 45
Datamonitor consulting 45
Disclaimer 45
List of Tables
Table 1:
Denmark major gas retail market players 2
Table 2: Denmark gas supply and
demand balance, 2007-08e 5
Table 3: Denmark gas transmission pipelines
10
Table 4: Denmark gas storage sites 11
Table 5: Denmark major power
retail players 12
Table 6: Denmark power supply and demand balance,
2007-08e 15
Table 7: Denmark system capacity 21
Table 8: Market
Competitive Intensity, Denmark 2009 and 2012 33
Table 9: MCI Additive,
Europe 2009 and 2012 34
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012
35
Table 11: Denmark power generation assets 41
List of Figures
Figure 1: Denmark indigenous gas production, 1990-2008e 6
Figure 2:
Denmark gas export supply sources, 2008e 7
Figure 3: Denmark gas sectoral
consumption, 2008e 8
Figure 4: Denmark gas consumption, trends and
forecasts, 1990-2020f 9
Figure 5: Denmark power production by fuel type,
1994-2008e 16
Figure 6: Denmark power production by fuel type, 2008e
17
Figure 7: Denmark power sectoral consumption, 2008e 18
Figure 8:
Denmark power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 19
Figure 9:
Denmark power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 20
Figure 10: MCI
Assessment Scale 22
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 23
Figure 12:
MCI Scales 24
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity,
2009-12 25
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Denmark 26
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 29
Figure
16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Denmark 30
Figure 17: Market
Competitive Intensity, Denmark 32
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Effectiveness of Regulator 36
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of
Third Party Access 37
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime
37
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
38
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 38
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 39
Figure 24:
Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 39
Figure 25: Scale
for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 40
Figure 26: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Propensity to Switch 40
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