Abstract
Introduction
Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face
of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and
broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players
throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the
exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is
likely to change.
Scope
*Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and
demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
*Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity
benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
*Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores
will change by 2012.
Highlights
The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories:
Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third
Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation,
Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information,
Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)
Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the
relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures,
player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of
operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power
stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites
Reasons to Purchase
*Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and
related energy markets from a single source.
*Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends,
identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
*Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by
gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market
Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Regulation 2
Wholesale Environment
3
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 4
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines
7
Storage 9
LNG 10
Electricity Market Overview 11
Industry
Landscape 11
Regulation 11
Wholesale Environment 12
Electricity
Supply and Demand Analysis 13
Electricity Infrastructure 17
Generation
Capacity 17
Electricity Networks 18
Competitive Intensity Analysis
Overview 20
Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for
measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 20
The
MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications
for both new entrants seeking to enter the market, and established players and
former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new
entrants. 20
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2009
and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2012, five years
after full market opening 20
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying
metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push;
Customer Pull 21
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow
for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 22
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 23
The Belgium gas market has strong
Supplier Push and Customer Pull scores 24
With a relatively strong
regulator and favourable pipeline regimes, Belgium scores highly on the Market
Framework metrics 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 6.5/10 2012: 8/10]
24
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 7/10 2012: 8.5/10] 25
Pricing
Regime [2009: 5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 25
The existence of a reasonably well
established and liquid wholesale market is the main element of the Supplier
Push metric 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2/10 2012: 2.5/10]
25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2009: 3/10 2012: 5.5/10] 25
In the
retail market there is a similar degree of concentration. Collectively the
three largest players own around 93% of the market. Whilst we expect some
erosion of this position over the forecast period, it is unlikely to happen to
any significant degree. 25
Traded Market Maturity [2009: 8/10 2012: 10/10]
25
Belgium' s Customer Pull metrics will show an incremental improvement in
the medium term. 26
Access to Market Information [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10]
26
Consumer Representation [2009: 3/10 2012: 4/10] 26
Propensity to
Switch [2009: 3/10 2012: 4/10] 26
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity
27
The Belgian power market shows development across all metrics over the
forecast period 27
The Belgium power market has strong Market Framework
scores 28
All of the Belgian Market Framework factors score at the upper
end of the metrics scale 28
Effectiveness of Regulator [2009: 6/10 2012:
8/10] 28
Ease of Third Party Access [2009: 6/10 2012: 7.5/10] 29
Pricing Regime [2009: 5/10 2012: 6.5/10] 29
The creation of a Belgian
power exchange drives the Supplier Push factors higher in 2012 29
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2009: 2/10 2012: 4/10] 29
Retail Market
Fragmentation [2009: 3/10 2012: 5/10] 29
Traded Market Maturity [2009:
3.5/10 2012: 5/10] 29
All of the Customer Pull metrics are expected to
show incremental improvement by 2012 30
Access to Market Information
[2009: 3/10 2012: 4.5/10] 30
Consumer Representation [2009: 4.5/10 2012:
6/10] 30
Propensity to Switch [2009: 2.5/10 2012: 4/10] 30
Competitive
intensity is likely to remain limited in the short term 31
COMPETITIVE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 32
MCI Scores Summary 32
MCI Scoring
Scales 35
APPENDIX 40
List of power stations in Belgium 40
Definitions 42
Ask the analyst 43
Datamonitor consulting 43
Disclaimer 43
List of Tables
Table 1: Belgium gas supply and demand
balance, 2007-08e 4
Table 2: Belgium gas transmission pipelines 9
Table 3: Belgium gas storage sites 10
Table 4: Belgium LNG terminal 10
Table 5: Belgium power supply and demand balance, 2007-08e 13
Table 6:
Belgium system capacity 19
Table 7: Market Competitive Intensity, Belgium
2009 and 2012 32
Table 8: MCI Additive, Europe 2009 and 2012 33
Table
9: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2009 and 2012 34
Table 10: Belgium power
generation assets 40
List of Figures
Figure 1: Belgium gas import
supply sources, 2008e 5
Figure 2: Belgium gas sectoral consumption, 2008e
6
Figure 3: Belgium gas consumption, trends and forecast, 1990-2020f 7
Figure 4: Belgium power production by fuel type, 1990-2008e 14
Figure 5:
Belgium power production by fuel type, 2008e 15
Figure 6: Belgium power
sectoral consumption, 2008e 16
Figure 7: Belgium power consumption, trends
and forecast, 1990-2020f 17
Figure 8: Belgium power generation capacity by
fuel type, 2007 18
Figure 9: MCI Assessment Scale 20
Figure 10: MCI
Assessment Framework 21
Figure 11: MCI Scales 22
Figure 12: European
Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 23
Figure 13: Gas Market
Competitive Intensity, Belgium 24
Figure 14: European Power Market
Competitive Intensity, 2009-12 27
Figure 15: Power Market Competitive
Intensity, Belgium 28
Figure 16: Market Competitive Intensity, Belgium
31
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 35
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 35
Figure
19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 36
Figure 20: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 37
Figure 21: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 37
Figure 22: Scale for MCI
Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 38
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Access to Market Information 38
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 39
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 39
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