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市場調查報告書
歐洲電力批發市場的發展
European Wholesale Power Market Development
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本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。
本報告書內容包括：歐洲電力批發市場的發展動向調查分析、市場發展・流動性水準分析、Nord Pool市場動向、各市場的相對定位及預測、促進市場發展因素、市場效率化的支援因素、新的自由化市場動向、2012年之前的市場預測等。內容綱要摘記如下：
DATAMONITOR的觀點
分析
- 電力批發市場發展需要結構性因素做為刺激的催化劑
- 批發市場發展有依照預設模式發展的傾向
- 批發市場發展的循環在漸漸發展出支援服務之前是發展氣勢的階段
- 具要具備充份的結構性因素，就可能發展出市場所需的支援服務
- 支援集散市場發展的市場基礎因素：促進交易市場成長及發展不可或缺的因素
- 基於各種理由各種企業需要的瓦斯批發市場、等
- 現在歐洲電力批發市場：包括各種發展階段
- 歐洲電力批發市場處於各種發展階段
- 產生期市場及新興期市場
- 歐洲確立期市場：自由化及供應多樣性的結果
- 歐洲電力批發市場的價格效率水準：顯示各種價格變動性
- 絕對價格的多樣性
- 價格變動性
- Datamonitor的Deviation Days Index：價格變動幅度衡量、等
- 市場開放將使得市場兩極化發展
- 歐洲電力市場：各種規模・發電結構
- 已確立的Nord Pool市場：EU27國市場依賴水力發電
- 批發市場的發展及目前的結構性因素
- 批發市場發展評價、等
附錄
圖表
Abstract
Overview
Introduction
Europe' s wholesale power markets are at widely differing stages of
development. They range from the Nord Pool, one of the world' s most highly
liquid and efficient markets, down to nascent markets where liquidity is
barely established. Additionally price efficiency varies widely between
markets. This brief examines the current status of these markets, and also
analyses their future prospects.
Scope
- A detailed review of the levels of development and liquidity currently
prevailing in Europe' s wholesale power markets.
- Insight into how the relative positioning of each of these markets is
likely to change in the period to 2012.
- Knowledge of the factors driving wholesale market development and the
associated factors supporting market efficiency.
- Forecasts of liquidity development in individual markets over the period
to 2012.
Report Highlights
Six European wholesale power markets are predicted to show significant
development over the forecast period, with one market forecast to decline in
developmental terms.
The Nord Pool market, which lies very much in the established category of
wholesale market development, is the world' s most liquid multi-country
electricity trading market. The degree of maturity reached in the Nord Pool
has been driven, at least in part, by Scandinavia' s high levels of per capita
power consumption.
Markets in the emerging category such as France, Belgium and Spain have all
been driven, at least in part, by cross border trade flows. This has been a
much stronger driver of emerging wholesale dynamics than structural
developments in the market.
Reasons to Purchase
- Gain an understanding of current and future wholesale power procurement
options in the newly liberalised European Electricity market.
- Understand the degree to which individual wholesale power markets are
efficient at conveying pricing signals.
- Track the likely development of European wholesale liquidity and the
resultant opportunity for efficient wholesale power trading.
Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- ANALYSIS
- A number of structural factors are required to catalyze the development
of wholesale power markets
- The development of wholesale markets tends to follow a preset pattern
of distinct stages
- The wholesale market development cycle gradually builds up enough
momentum to spawn the creation of wholesale support services
- Once sufficient structural factors are in place, the necessary support
services required for wholesale market development begin to emerge
- The market-based factors supporting hub development are crucial
elements in facilitating and developing traded markets
- Wholesale power markets are required by different players throughout
the value chain for different reasons
- There are three distinct stages to wholesale market development
- Currently, Europe' s wholesale power markets cover the full range of
developmental stages
- Europe' s wholesale power markets remain at a widely different stages of
development
- Despite often having closed market dynamics in common,nascent and
emerging markets differ in terms of cross-border trading
- Nascent markets
- Emerging markets
- Europe' s established wholesale markets are a result of ongoing
liberalization and availability of supply
- Price efficiency levels in the European wholesale markets show varying
ranges of volatility
- Absolute prices show significant variation, despite following similar
trend patterns
- Price volatility in all markets has been strong
- Datamonitor' s Deviation Days Index measures price movement ranges and
gives insight into levels of price efficiency
- Levels of price volatility in the established markets have been
consistently lower than the Nord Pool
- The wholesale markets in Europe have only achieved 80% of the DDI of
the Nord Pool
- The polarization of the markets will reduce in the wake of market opening
- Europe' s power markets vary considerably in size and generation mix,
which can often impact wholesale market dynamics
- The established Nord Pool markets are much more reliant on hydropower
generation than the EU 27 markets
- The propensity for development of a wholesale market can be established
from current structural factors
- Datamonitor examines the following factors to assess wholesale market
development potential by 2012:-
- Datamonitor uses a sliding scale to assess the development in wholesale
trading markets
- Datamonitor' s scoring matrix shows a broad range of development
potential across the EU
- Established markets are distributed throughout Europe
- Seven markets are forecast to show particularly significant movement
over the forecast period
- Six markets are forecast to advance significantly over the forecast
period, and one is forecast to decline
- The projected key movements of markets in Europe by 2012 are:
- APPENDIX
- The criteria for scoring and the weighting assigned to them are:
- ' Current status' accounts for 10% of the overall score
- ' Per capita B2C volume' accounts for 15% of the overall score
- ' Per capita B2B volume' accounts for 15% of the overall score
- ' CAGR demand of wholesale electricity market' accounts for 10% of the
overall score
- ' Wholesale fragmentation' accounts for 25% of the overall score
- ' Retail fragmentation' accounts for 20% of the overall score
- ' Potential for interconnectivity' accounts for 5% of the overall score
- Flags of members of the European Union and the Nord Pool
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: The five distinct stages of wholesale market progression
- Figure 2: Wholesale support services emerge as the cycle builds momentum
- Figure 3: The interaction between structural and support factors creates
a ' snowball' effect
- Figure 4: The key support elements to wholesale market growth
- Figure 5: Different players engage in wholesale trading for different
reasons
- Figure 6: The three stages of market development
- Figure 7: Depiction of the current status of Europe' s wholesale
electricity markets
- Figure 8: European wholesale power market prices
- Figure 9: Despite brief periods of greater price efficiency, the other
markets tend to show a DDI of approximately 80% of the Nord Pool
- Figure 10: EU power generated volume by type:
- Figure 11: The Nord Pool power generated volume by type compared with EU
27 average
- Figure 12: Wholesale market development assessment scale
- Figure 13: Europe' s markets in descending order of development
- Figure 14: Heat map showing wholesale power market development in Europe
- Figure 15: Projected movement of markets by 2012
- Figure 16: Scoring scale
- Figure 17: Scoring scale
- Figure 18: Scoring scale
- Figure 19: Scoring scale
- Figure 20: Scoring scale
- Figure 21: Scoring scale
- Figure 22: Scoring scale
- Figure 23: National Flags of countries in the report
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