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市場調查報告書
歐洲碳批發市場發展
European Wholesale Carbon Market Development
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本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。
報告書內容包括：京都議定書概要、氣候變遷相關規範、排放權交易、碳市場動向、鷗盟主要市場未來發展等等，內容綱要摘記如下：
DATAMONITOR的看法
分析
- 排放權交易可以讓各國達到以京都議定書為基礎的削減義務
- 京都議定書讓先進國家有遵守Cap and Trade制度的義務
- 排放權交易是經濟刺激帶來的污染管理行政性手段
- EU-ETS是先進的排放權交易制度
- 全球排放權交易市場由歐洲主導
- EU-ETS獨占2007年的全球排放權交易
- 2007年，EU-ETS的交易額保持領先
- 對歐盟來說，創造「全球的」碳市場是很重要的
- 歐洲碳大部分在店面交易
- 無匯率變動：ECX持續領導歐盟排放權交易標準化市場
- EUA-II價格在2006年中回復
- 由於以EU-ETS Phase II與III為基礎的排放權交易重啟，故碳市場的重要性節節上升
- ETS Phase II讓市場基本結構劇烈變化
- EU-ETS Phase II比Phase I嚴苛，受到EUA的需求與價格影響
- ETS偏好利用Phase II的碳配額，降低Phase III的碳產出
- 對需求與價格的壓力增加，以致目前的削減目標可能伴隨風險
- 德國、英國、義大利、波蘭、西班牙等國2008年的碳配額不足
- 歐洲各國ETS Phase II的削減需求劇烈增加，Phase III更加擴大
- 碳削減不足讓歐洲批發市場增大，抵銷燃料變更、CCS、供給限制
附錄
Abstract
Overview
Introduction
Against a backdrop of challenging carbon abatement targets and reduced
European carbon emission allocations, the role of traded carbon markets is
growing in importance as the second leg of the EU-ETS takes effect. The
marketing and product development for carbon financial instruments is growing
rapidly as greater volumes are swapped on increasingly liquid platforms across
Europe
Scope
- An overview of the Kyoto Protocol, climate change regulations, emissions
trading and carbon markets, with a particular emphasis on phase 2 of EU-ETS
- Detailed analysis of Phase 2 of ETS and the bullish implications for EUA
demand and pricing against a backdrop of considerable upside risk
- Insight as to why demand for carbon credits will differ greatly across
Europe, underpinned by generation mix and fuel switching capabilities analysis
- A range of carbon compliance scenarios based on the likely evolution of
the power generation mix in key EU markets and the impact on carbon markets
Report Highlights
The over-allocation of EUAs and ensuing lack of price-tension seen during
phase 1 of EU-ETS will not be repeated in Phase 2. The phase 2 cap - well
below 2007 adjusted emissions - has set the tone for a very ambitious
energy-policy package out to 2020 which points to significantly higher carbon
prices and demand over 2008-20
The optimal compliance strategy for the ETS as a whole is to use the largest
possible allocation of carbon credits during Phase 2, thereby minimizing the
cost of compliance in Phase 2 to the €40/t implied by the LRMC curve while
buying time to build the extra switching capacity needed to meet the cap over
Phase 3
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand how carbon markets are likely to evolve as key European players
leverage switching capabilities within their power generation mix
- Leverage Phase 2 of the EU-ETS to your advantage having understood how
demand, supply and price conditions are likely to evolve in key EU markets
- Formulate and apply successful strategies to leverage greater demand for
financial carbon instruments as liquidity and price efficiencies materialise
Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- ANALYSIS
- Emissions trading allows countries to meet their carbon abatement
obligations under the Kyoto Protocol
- The Kyoto Protocol binds most developed nations to a capand trade
system
- Emissions trading is an administrative approach used to control
pollution by way of economic incentives
- The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is the leading
emissions trading system
- The ' global' carbon emission trading market is still very much Eurocentric
- EU-ETS continued to dominate global carbon trading volumes in 2007
- In 2007, EU- ETS sustained its lead in terms of total traded financial
values
- The EU is pivotal to establishing a truly ' global' carbon market
- An increasing majority of European carbon is traded over-the-counter
- No changes on the exchanges: the ECX continues to lead the standardized
market for EU emissions trading
- EUA-II prices recovered strongly mid 2006 on the expectation that Phase
II compliance caps would be tightened
- EUA-II prices recovered strongly mid 2006 on the expectation that Phase
II compliance caps would be tightened
- Carbon markets will grow in importance as emission trading is reborn
under phases II and III of EU-ETS
- ETS Phase II will bring a dramatic shift in market fundamentals
- Phase II of EU-ETS looks a lot tighter than Phase 1 and has bullish
implications for EUA demand and pricing
- It is likely that ETS installations will largely favour the use of
carbon credits in Phase II and lower carbon generation in Phase III
- Upside risks could be introduced into current abatement targets,
causing more upward pressure on demand and pricing
- Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland and Spain will be structurally short
carbon credits in 2008, based on their respective 2007 emissions
- European countries will see a dramatic rise in the need for carbon
abatement in Phase II ETS, and to a much larger extent Phase III
- Carbon abatement shortfalls will drive European wholesale market
growth, offset by fuel switching, CCS and limited supply
- APPENDIX
- Definitions
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: EUA trading forms the bulk of traded volumes,followed by
project-based activities and voluntary transactions
- Figure 2: EUA trading forms the bulk of trading values,followed by
project-based activities and voluntary transactions
- Figure 3: Active trading programs exist in several pollutants worldwide,
yet EU-ETS remains by far the largest carbon market,with 62% of the physical
market and 70% of the financial market
- Figure 4: Non-brokered bilateral trading is losing ground to OTC and
exchange-based trading
- Figure 5: The Anglo-Dutch ECX continues to dominate formalized EU
emissions trading
- Figure 6: Market focus is shifting from an increasingly meaningless ETS
Phase I towards increasingly stringent Phase II allocations
- Figure 7: The inclusion of 85Mt of new emissions not covered in Phase 1
means that the Phase II cap has effectively been reduced by 13%
- Figure 8: The transition from Phase I to Phase II allocations will see
the current surplus of credits replaced with an EU A shortfall from 2008
- Figure 9: The suggested EU emissions cap of 1,720Mt by 2020 presents a
very challenging target, with severe implications for demand and pricing,
given the aggressive Phase III limits on CDM / JI credits
- Figure 10: The five European countries with the largest carbon abatement
targets also display the largest carbon allowance deficits
- Figure 11: Of the 5 countries that will be significantly short carbon
credits in 2008, only Spain will be long on average overphases 2 and 3
- Figure 12: EU wholesale carbon market growth
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