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市場調查報告書
景氣衰退及財富管理市場
Weathering the storm in Wealth Management 2007
| 出版商 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日期 |
2007年12月 |
商品編碼 |
58746 |
| 內容資訊 |
英文 19 pages |
| 價格 |
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本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。
本報告書內容包括：全球財富管理專家對不景氣的認知調查分析、經濟發展預測及對財富管理產業的影響、不景氣時的風險及市場機會、適用於不景氣時的企業策略・商品開發・商品行銷等。內容綱要摘記如下：
Datamonitor的觀點
分析
- 大部份的財富管理專家都不擔心全球不景氣的風險
- 對未來2年內經濟發展的2種看法
- 只有少數的管理專家認為市場發展走下坡
- Datamonitor的觀點：2008年至2009年全球經濟不景氣
- 利率上升、過多借款、負的儲蓄率
- 貸款證券化
- 國家負債金額增加・税收減少
- 外國投資人的廻避
- 美國債券下跌
- 美國發生恐怖攻擊事件的疑慮、等
- 不景氣時的成功因素：溝通・風險分析・有效的商品銷售
- 因應顧客對市場不穩定性的顧慮的溝通計畫的必要性
- 目前最重要的風險分析
- 規避風險的顧客需求
- 偏愛風險的顧客的市場機會
- 新商品及既有商品的有效銷售
- 二次房屋貸款的市場機會、等
- 市場景氣恢復時的顧客需求
附錄
圖表
Abstract
Overview
Introduction
There are conflicting views among wealth managers and economists, as well as
in the media, about the extent and duration of sub-prime mortgage defaults and
the resulting credit squeeze. Datamonitor predicts that the impact on
financial services will be significant, and will last through 2009. We have
produced a series of reports to identify the strategies to help them insulate
their revenues.
Scope
- Introduces Datamonitor' s detailed analysis of the global investment
markets through 2011
- Presents results from Datamonitor' s 2007 European Wealth Management Market
Leaders Survey of 140 companies
- identifies the products and services that will keep and/or attract clients
in today' s market, including examples of the companies launching them
- assesses the smart strategies around marketing and communications, and
identify the companies that have been proactive in contacting their client base
Report Highlights
Only 8% of wealth managers anticipate a market downturn, leaving the vast
majority of wealthy clients wondering what the future has in store for them.
Since 78% of wealth managers share their clients with at least one other
wealth manager, there is significant potential to increase share of wallet
simply by talking to clients.
One implication of a market downturn is a cut in rates; banks that work
closely with their lending side can increase share of wallet this way. As
lending criteria tightens, clients with good credit will be even more
important to keep hold of.
When market conditions improve, it will not only be clients at risk of
defection. Relationship managers will be on the move, most likely to the
highest bidder, just as we have seen in 2006-07 (55% of European wealth
managers were undertaking a ' significant staff recruitment program' in 2007,
41% planned such a program in 2006).
Reasons to Purchase
- Learn what the global investment markets have in store for wealth managers
through 2009, and why.
- Identify the strategies that will keep your customers through concrete
examples of peers that are implementing those strategies already
- Identify the best products and services to launch, or re-launch, in
today' s market, and those that will best position you during the recovery in
2009
Table of Contents
- DATAMONITOR VIEW
- ANALYSIS
- The majority of wealth managers are not concerned about the risk of a
global economic downturn
- There are two broad schools of thought on the economic outlook for the
next two years
- Very few wealth managers acknowledge that a market downturn is on the
way
- Datamonitor believes that 2008-09 will be characterized by struggling
economies worldwide
- Rising interest rates, excessive borrowing and negative savings rates
have combined in a perfect storm that will shake most of the world' s
economies
- The widespread securitization of loans will compound this problem
- Consumers were not alone in overextending themselves; state debt
servicing is up against budget, while tax revenues are sharply down, which
may signal a muni bond crisis ahead
- The US economy is not healthy enough to ' expand' itself out of these
conditions
- Foreign direct investment may also boost the economy; unfortunately
foreign investors have run for the hills
- A continued Treasury sell-off may further depress the dollar and, at
worst, force interest rate hikes
- Another major terrorist attack in the US will destabilize the economy
further
- Market capitalization, to varying degrees, will fall worldwide as US
stock markets continue their jitters
- Communication, risk assessment and effectively marketed products will be
the keys to success in the downturn
- A structured communication program should have already been
implemented to address customer concerns about market volatility
- Risk assessment is more important now than ever
- The potential to deepen share of wallet is significant
- Risk-averse clients will demand insulation and reassurance from the
downturn
- Clients will be tempted to hold investments in cash
- Risk-loving clients should be encouraged to see the opportunities in
volatility and in mis-matches
- Product development will be a combination of new launches, and
intelligently marketed existing products
- The lending side of the business will also be important as
re-mortgaging opportunities will abound when rates come down
- Wealth managers who don' t anticipate client needs in the market recovery
will lose them
- A shift back into stock market-related investments should be
marketing-led, not client-led
- As the market improves, clients will again want more say in their
investments
- The best client managers will be poached from those wealth managers
without a retention plan already in place when the market improves
- APPENDIX
- Definitions
- Currency peg
- Exchange-traded fund (ETF)
- Guaranteed fund/ Capital-protected fund
- Risk tolerance
- Uncorrelated investment
- Methodology
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: US troubles have spread to the rest of the world
- Figure 2: Less than 10% of wealth managers were most concerned about a
potential recession as of September 2007
- Figure 3: General obligation and revenue muni yields have increased in
recent weeks, while Treasury yields have decreased, indicating a shift
from munis to Treasuries
- Figure 4: The US has run a trade deficit since 2001
- Figure 5: US dollar exchange rates have fallen against the European
currencies since the last market downturn
- Figure 6: Net assets in guaranteed funds have grown strongly from
mid-2006
- Figure 7: Net sales into equity-linked UCITS have been negative in 2007
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