歐洲能源批發市場的未來發展

本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。

簡介

目錄

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

As European energy markets liberalise, the development of wholesale traded markets assumes a greater importance as new retail market entrants seek access to wholesale supply. Currently, widely differing market dynamics, stages of competitive development and attitudes to liberalisation at all levels in individual markets means that wholesale market development varies significantly across Europe.

Scope

• assessments of current and future wholesale market development in both the gas and power markets.
• insight into the main structural and market based factors driving wholesale market development in each market.
• detailed forecasts of sectoral switching and churn rates and the resultant size of wholesale markets over a ten year forecast period.
• deep understanding of the likely development of regional trading hubs in the wake of individual wholesale market developments.

Highlights

The effects of an already well developed power market combined with likely developments in gas trading liquidity will see Denmarks combined ratio of traded gas and power wholesale volumes to absolute demand volumes leading the field at the end of the 2018 forecasting period.

In proportional (though not volume) terms, the Netherlands will be the most liquid of the gas markets surveyed by 2018 as a result of continued development of the TTF market. This will be driven by the presence of strong structural factors, specifically upstream production, indigenous demand and a decline in gas production elsewhere in Europe.

The scope for the development of regional gas hubs is considerably greater over the forecast period than for the development of power hubs. This reflects both current market dynamics, the nature of trade flows and the greater degree of individual self sufficiency in gas compared to power.

Reasons to Purchase

• capitalise on the commercial opportunities available from wholesale market development.
• gain a deeper understanding of how market opening and wholesale market development will alter the operational environment inspecific markets.
• become aware of the specific stages of wholesale market development and align these stages with the stages reached in individual countries.

Table of Contents

• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • This report examines the likely development of gas andpower wholesale market liquidity over a ten year forecast period from2008
  • The Netherlands and Germany lead the field in both gasand power wholesale market future development potential
  • The size of future wholesale gas traded volumes mirrorcurrent levels of competitive development in the selected markets
  • There is little evidence to show that the currentlyundeveloped wholesale markets will have significantly developed by 2018
  • In proportional terms, the Netherlands will be the mostliquid of the gas markets surveyed
  • By the end of the forecast period the relativedifferences in wholesale power market liquidity between individualmarkets will remain
  • By the end of the forecast period individual wholesalemarket dynamics create potential trading and arbitrage synergies on aregional hub basis
  • Greater indigenous self sufficiency creates less scopefor power hub development than is the case with gas hubs
• CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION
  • This analysis forecasts the size and development ofwholesale gas and power liquidity in 10 key European gas and powermarkets
  • The future potential of wholesale market development isscored on a scale of 1 to 10 according to various structural factors
  • Overall scores are based on a weighted average of 4 keymetrics based on structural factors known to drive wholesale marketliquidity
  • Two methods of calculation are used in order to ensureaccuracy of results and to remove erroneous or misleading scores
  • The Existing Progress metric assesses the current stageof wholesale development reached in a particular market
  • The Location metric assesses how well endowed a marketis with access to converging supply sources and potential export markets
  • Future Switching is the key metric and assesses howshort term retail switching creates potential need for wholesalesupplies
  • The Demand metric assesses the impact on wholesalemarket development of demand growth and absolute demand levels
  • This report is aimed at those needing a greater insightinto the likely evolution of wholesale energy markets in Europe
  • The accompanying interactive model forecasts thepotential size of the selected wholesale markets in 2018
  • Once sufficiently strong structural factors are inplace, the necessary support services required for hub development beginto emerge
  • Once sufficiently strong structural factors are inplace, the necessary support services required for hub development beginto emerge
  • The development of wholesale markets tends to follow apreset pattern of distinct stages
  • The market based factors supporting hub development arecrucial elements in facilitating and developing traded markets
  • In addition to market and structural factors, thecreation and development of wholesale markets is driven by various typesof market player
• CHAPTER 3 MARKET STATUS
  • Where wholesale gas markets have emerged across Europe,levels of maturity vary significantly though are often influenced bymarket size
  • In the power market, levels of market development areless influenced by market size than the gas market
  • The Czech Republics geographic position is one of thefew factors in the current environment likely to assist the developmentof a Czech wholesale gas market
  • Like the gas market, the Czech Republic power marketspotential for increased wholesale activity is mainly driven by itsphysical location
  • The tentative steps taken so far towards the developmentof a Danish gas hub will be driven in the future by both geographiclocation and upstream production
  • The Nord Pool, of which Denmark is a part, is a liquidand well developed wholesale power market
  • Frances geographic location will continue to give thefledgling traded gas market further impetus, particularly when new LNGfacilities come on line
  • PEG trading volumes remain modest but are growingrapidly
  • Despite both the existing progress and location metricshelping drive wholesale market development, future progress will becurtailed by switching apathy and limited scope for demand growth
  • A favorable geographic location is the key elementdriving Germanys gas score
  • Germanys already well established wholesale powermarket liquidity is driven by a long period of market opening,geographic location and retail market fragmentation
  • A wholesale hub may emerge a considerable way down theline if demand growth remains buoyant and if new infrastructure is built
  • Longer term potential exists for a wholesale powermarket given strong demand growth and planned infrastructure development
  • The undeveloped nature of the Irish market significantlycurtails its wholesale traded market potential
  • Other than strong demand growth, there are seemingly fewfactors contributing to Irish wholesale power market development
  • A favorable location, strong switching propensity andabove average demand growth will all aid existing wholesale marketdevelopment
  • The continued development of the existing Italianwholesale market will be constrained by low switching and GDP issues
  • All of the Dutch gas market metrics score highlyindicating that they will continue to drive wholesale market development
  • The Dutch market has one of the worlds most wellestablished wholesale power markets outside of the Nord Pool
  • Demand growth and location will drive Polish wholesalemarket development, though the prevailing obstacles mean that this isunlikely to occur in the short to medium term
  • The further development of Polands illiquid powerexchange is likely to be constrained by low demand growth and minimalswitching activity
  • Strong demand growth and a close proximity to Algeriaare likely to be key drivers in continuing the early progress alreadymade towards Spanish wholesale gas market development
  • Strong demand growth will be a key driver in thecontinued development of the Spanish wholesale power market,particularly when the single Iberian market is launched later in theyear
  • A summary of scores shows that the selected gas marketshave widely varying degrees of potential wholesale market development
  • Greece is the only market to achieve a zeromultiplicative score for wholesale power market development potential
  • The Netherlands and Germany lead the field in both gasand power wholesale market future development potential
  • By 2018 gas switching rates are likely to be moreuniform across markets than in the current climate
  • By 2018 switching rates will be sufficiently welldeveloped in most power markets to drive at least some wholesale marketdevelopment
  • By 2018 demand levels and high switching rates willensure Germany, the Netherlands and Italy are the most well developedwholesale gas markets in the sample group
  • Continued high absolute demand levels and switchingactivity will continue to drive the development of the German wholesalepower market
• CHAPTER 4 MARKET TRENDS
  • Low switching rates, historical supply patterns and lowmarket concentration will constrain Czech wholesale market development
  • Like the gas market, Czech wholesale activity will beconstrained by low switching rates and a lack new entrants coming intothe market
  • Danish wholesale liquidity will be driven by rapidmarket opening and upstream activity creating a long and deep forwardcurve relatively soon into the forecast period
  • Danish wholesale power market development is alreadymature owing to the presence of the Nord Pool market
  • Despite the progress made by the PEG market, a lack ofcompetitive gas will constrain the short term development of wholesaleliquidity
  • Despite the liquidity provided by Powernext, theposition of EDF will constrain meaningful liquidity until much laterinto the forecast period
  • A combination of demand levels, physical location, gridreform and a fragmented retail market will conspire to produce a Germanwholesale market resembling the NBP in the medium term
  • Reduced generation market concentration and policydecisions will produce an increasingly liquid and well traded wholesalemarket
  • Strong demand growth and a new role as a transit stateare unlikely to be strong enough factors to overcome the liquiditydampening effects of Greeces directive derogation and immature market
  • Wholesale liquidity creation in Greece is heavilydependent on the creation of a market structure sufficiently attractiveto encourage new entrants
  • A lack of supply source interconnections and limitedindigenous production mean a wholesale Irish gas market remains unlikelyduring the forecast period
  • The factors holding back the development of the Irishwholesale power market are similar to those impacting the gas market
  • Supported by strong structural factors, the limited, butgrowing, Italian wholesale gas market will continue to develop over theforecast period
  • Further development of the current levels of liquidityis dependent on increased switching and recovery from recent economicmalaise
  • Strong structural factors, particularly demand, willensure rapid and continuous development of the TTF into a highly liquidand pivotal market by 2018
  • Continued wholesale liquidity will develop despite thelimitations resulting from a lack of fragmentation throughout the valuechain
  • High market concentration and a lack of supply diversitywill significantly constrain Polish liquidity development, despitefavourable demand and locational factors
  • Despite the emergence of limited wholesale powerliquidity, considerable barriers remain regarding its future development
  • A combination of strong structural factors, rapidindustry development and progress made so far mean that Spain haspotential to become a key wholesale market by 2018
  • Early market opening has allowed Spain to so far achievegreater wholesale liquidity than many other markets, though futuredevelopment is constrained by Endesas continued strong position
  • The size of future wholesale gas traded volumes mirrorscurrent levels of competitive development in the selected markets
  • By the end of the forecast period the relativedifferences in wholesale power market liquidity between individualmarkets will remain
  • In proportional terms, the Netherlands will be the mostliquid of the gas markets surveyed
  • The effects of an already well developed power marketcombined with developments in gas trading liquidity will see Denmarkleading the field in proportional combined energy market liquidity by2018
  • By the end of the forecast period individual wholesalemarket dynamics create potential trading and arbitrage synergies on aregional hub basis
  • Greater indigenous self sufficiency creates less scopefor power hub development than is the case with gas hubs
• CHAPTER 5 METHODOLOGY
• CHAPTER 6 FURTHER DETAILS
  • Related reports and contact details
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1: Summary Wholesale Market DevelopmentPotential Scores
  • Figure 2: Potential 2018 Gas Wholesale Traded Volumes
  • Figure 3: Potential 2018 Power Wholesale TradedVolumes
  • Figure 4: Potential 2018 Gas Wholesale Traded Volumesas a Proportion of Market Demand
  • Figure 5: Potential 2018 Power Wholesale TradedVolumes as a Proportion of Market Demand
  • Figure 6: Likely Gas Hubs by 2018
  • Figure 7: Likely Power Hubs by 2018
  • Figure 8: Markets covered by this report
  • Figure 9: Wholesale market development scoring scale
  • Figure 10: Overview of Wholesale market developmentscoring metrics
  • Figure 11: Overview of existing progress metric
  • Figure 12: Overview of location metric
  • Figure 13: Overview of future switching metric
  • Figure 14: Overview of demand metric
  • Figure 15: Summary of potential users of this report
  • Figure 16: Overview of liquidity forecasting model
  • Figure 17: Overview of market scoring framework
  • Figure 18: Wholesale market development cycle
  • Figure 19: Wholesale market support services evolutioncycle
  • Figure 20: Wholesale market development stages
  • Figure 21: Wholesale market support services overview
  • Figure 22: Different influences of market players onwholesale market development
  • Figure 23: Existing levels of European energywholesale gas market liquidity
  • Figure 24: Existing levels of European energywholesale power market liquidity
  • Figure 25: PEG Trading Volumes
  • Figure 26: Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 27: Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 28: Summary Gas Scores vs Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 29: 2018 Residential vs Non Residential GasSwitching Rates
  • Figure 30: 2018 Residential vs Non Residential PowerSwitching Rates
  • Figure 31: Forecast 2018 Gas Market Consumption vs2018 Forecast Switching Rates
  • Figure 32: Forecast 2018 Electricity MarketConsumption vs 2018 Forecast Switching Rates
  • Figure 33: Czech Republic Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 34: Czech Republic Forecast Wholesale GasVolumes
  • Figure 35: Cxech Republic Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 36: Czech Republic Forecast Wholesale PowerVolumes
  • Figure 37: Denmark Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 38: Denmark Forecast Wholesale Gas Volumes
  • Figure 39: Denmark Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 40: Denmark Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 41: France Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 42: France Forecast Wholesale Gas Volumes
  • Figure 43: France Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 44: France Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 45: Germany Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 46: Germany Forecast Wholesale Gas Volumes
  • Figure 47: Germany Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 48: Germany Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 49: Greece Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 50: Greece Forecast Wholesale Gas Volumes
  • Figure 51: Greece Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 52: Greece Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 53: Ireland Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 54: Ireland Forecast Wholesale Gas Liquidity
  • Figure 55: Ireland Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 56: Ireland Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 57: Italy Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 58: Italy Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 59: Italy Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 60: Italy Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 61: Netherlands Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 62: Netherlands Forecast Wholesale Gas Volumes
  • Figure 63: Netherlands Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 64: Netherlands Forecast Wholesale PowerVolumes
  • Figure 65: Poland Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 66: Poland Forecast Wholesale Gas Volumes
  • Figure 67: Poland Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 68: Poland Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 69: Spain Summary Gas Scores
  • Figure 70: Spain Forecast Wholesale Gas Volumes
  • Figure 71: Spain Summary Power Scores
  • Figure 72: Spain Forecast Wholesale Power Volumes
  • Figure 73: Summary Potential Wholesale Gas TradeVolumes 2018
  • Figure 74: Summary Potential Wholesale Power TradeVolumes 2018
  • Figure 75: Relative Wholesale Power Market Liquidity2018
  • Figure 76: Relative Wholesale Gas Market Liquidity2018
  • Figure 77: Forecast Relative Wholesale and PowerLiquidity 2018
  • Figure 78: Likely Gas Hubs by 2018
  • Figure 79: Likely Power Hubs by 2018

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