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市場調查報告書
天然氣輸出國家論壇動向
Gas Exporting Countries Forum - An Overview
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本報告已在2011年07月19日停止出版。
天然氣輸出國家論壇（GECF）為全球主要天然氣輸出國以追求利益所組成的非正式組織，會員國的天然氣蘊藏與出產量佔全球極大比重，因此各界均高度憂慮 GECF 是否會在天然氣市場成為下一個 OPEC。
擅長多領域市場調查分析的英國專業公司 Datamonitor Corporation（總公司：倫敦），調查分析了 GECF 各會議要點、壟斷全球市場的可能性、各會員國的參加動機與討論課題的矛盾等後，出版了一本綜合報告書 "Gas Exporting Countries Forum - An Overview"。
報告書內容包括：五次 GECF 年度閣員會議所浮現的問題、會員國構成變化、GECF 整體力量與市場支配分析、各會員國遭遇的課題與動機等等，全書含 9 幅圖表共 39 頁，內容綱要摘記如下：
第1章 摘要
- GECF：天然氣出產國以相互利益為目的的非正式組織
- GECF 反對廢止長期銷售契約所帶來的自由化
第2章 前言
- GECF 的角色、天然氣市場的 OPEC 化發展可能性檢視
第3章 市場狀況
- GECF 會員國以創造天然氣的相互利益為目標，但意見並不一致
- GECF 會員國數量增加中
- 2001 年設立時，會員國總生產量為全球 39%
- 設立時，會員國總蘊藏量為全球 69％
- 自設立以來，GECF 的天然氣產量與蘊藏量皆增加
- 在會員國增加下，GECF 的全球天然氣蘊藏比率也增加
- 在會員國的生產與蘊藏狀況不同下，可開採年數也大幅變更
- 會員國於整體組織的天然氣碳氫化合物混合生產中所扮演的角色差異頗大
- GECF 各會員國的平均每人 GDP 顯示經濟發展階段各各不同
- 各會員國財政對能源部門的倚重差距頗大
- 各會員國的立場與面臨課題的矛盾，明顯表現在對遊說的態度上
第4章 會議分析
- 2001 年 5 月初次召開會議，主張並非以成為天然氣市場的 OPEC 為目標
- 初次會議揭示 12 個組織會議
- 供給安全性與歐盟的自由化亦為初次會議的主要議題
- 第二次會議再度否定以成為天然氣市場的 OPEC 為目標，並提出多項新問題
- 第三次會議的問題大多與第二次會議相同
- 第四次會議亦討論相同問題，但委內瑞拉表明希望 GECF 能發展為天然氣的 OPEC
- 第四次會議後，埃及持續將石油與天然氣的價格政策分離
- 最後一次會議較平穩，幾乎沒有新的議題
第5章 結論
- GECF 無法發展為天然氣的 OPEC 之多項理由
- 各國課題不同，達成協議的困難
- 本質相異的各會員國
- 長期契約的存在
- 天然氣並非全球性市場
- 生產分工的困難
- 國際性反壟斷法的威脅
Introduction
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an informally structured group of some of the worlds leading gas producers aimed at representing and promoting their mutual interests. Collectively the GECF controls 73% of the worlds gas reserves and 41% of production. This collective strength has lead to concerns by gas importers that the GECF has the potential to evolve into a gas version of OPEC.
Scope of this report
- The report includes an analysis of the key issues arising form each of the GECFs five annual ministerial meetings
- The collective strength and market control of the GECF is analysed in the context of its changing membership structure
- The differing and divergent agendas and motivations of individual GECF members are highlighted
Research and analysis highlights
Membership has fluctuated since the GECFs formation in 2001 and currently consists of Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Norway (as an observer), Oman, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago, the UAE and Venezuela. Together these countries account for 73% of global gas reserves and 41% of production.
Despite being united by a common role as gas producers, the GECF members have very different agendas. So far these differences have presented little problem other than occasionally diverging rhetoric, though potential exists for more significant and divisive differences of opinion if the GECF evolves into a more structured organisation.
Key reasons to read this report
- Gain an insight into the key issues arising from each GECF meeting
- Analyse the potential for the GECF to cartelise the global gas market
- Obtain an overview of the differing motivations and agendas of the GECF members
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The GECF is a loosely defined group of gas producers seeking to represent and benefit their mutual interests
- The GECF is opposed to the movement away from long term purchase contracts resulting from liberalisation
CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION
- This report examines the role played by the GECF and explores its potential to develop into a gas OPEC
CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT
- The GECF members are united by their mutual gas production interests, though consensus of opinion is not guaranteed
- Membership of the GECF has grown since its formation
- At its formation in 2001 the GECF members collectively produced 39% of the worlds gas
- GECF collective reserves at its formation stood at 69% of the world total giving it a significant degree of strength
- Like reserves, GECF production levels have increased since formation
- The addition of new members and reserve replacement has increased GECF reserves and its proportion of the world total
- Differing production and reserves positions amongst the members lead to widely differing R/P ratios
- The role of gas in the overall hydrocarbon production mix varies widely between members
- The GECF members are at widely differing stages of economic growth and development as evidenced by their per capital GDPs
- Fiscal reliance on the energy sector varies significantly between members
- The different agendas and positions of the GECF members manifests itself in the differing attitudes to lobbying
CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS OF MEETINGS
- The first GECF meeting took place in May 2001 and focused on strongly denying that it had any intentions to be a gas OPEC
- The first meeting outlined a twelve point plan of objectives for the organisation
- Security of supply and EU liberalisation also featured prominently on the first meetings agenda
- In addition to further denials that it was intending to become a gas OPEC, the second meeting raised a number of new issues
- The third meeting was dominated by almost identical issues to the second meeting
- The fourth meeting debated similar issues though was characterised by Venezuelas announcement that it was keen for the GECF to evolve into a Gas OPEC
- Following the fourth meeting, Egypt continued its campaign for gas price decoupling from oil
- The latest meeting was a relatively muted affair with few new issues debated
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS
- There are a number of reasons that make it unlikely that the GECF will emerge as a gas OPEC
- Differing agendas and difficulties in reaching consensus
- The disparate nature of the membership
- The Existence of Long Term Contracts
- Gas is not a global market
- Difficulties in allocating production quotas
- The threat of international anti-cartel laws
CHAPTER 6 METHODOLOGY
- Statistical Notes
- Abbreviations Used
- Related reports and contact details
List of Figures
- Figure 1: GECF Membership
- Figure 2: Founder Member Production Levels 2001
- Figure 3: Founder Member Reserves 2001
- Figure 4: GECF Production 2004
- Figure 5: GECF Reserves 2004
- Figure 6: GECF Gas Production and Reserves (2004)
- Figure 7: GECF Oil and Gas Production (2004)
- Figure 8: Role of Energy in GDP vs Per Capita GDP
- Figure 9: Percentage of GDP Sourced from Energy sector
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