老年癡呆症的市場及產品預測

2011年達到53億美金，全球主要7個市場（美國、日本、法國、德國、義大利、西班牙、英國）的老年癡呆症市場，預計在2021年達到136億美元。老年人口的增加，診斷技術的提高，新藥物類別的上市，是推動該成長的主要原因。

本報告提供老年癡呆症市場目前趨勢和今後預測，各種治療藥物趨勢預測等等，為您概述為以下內容。

概要

• 發展因素
• 摘要

摘要整理

市場定義

• 老年癡呆症的市場定義
• 預測方法與前提條件

市場概要和背景

• 現在及未來市場動態概要
  • 老年癡呆症治療藥物市場預計在今後10年達到超過2倍的成長規模
  • 成為成長動力的免疫疾病治療藥物
  • 成為大商機的疾病早期治療

產品預測

• 產品動態
  • 快從Aricept手中奪走老年痴呆症最暢銷藥寶座的Namenda
  • 預計開發平台中的醫藥品到２０２１年將獲得50％的市場佔有率
• Aricept (donepezil; Eisai/Pfizer)
• Exelon (rivastigmine; Novartis)
• Razadyne (galantamine; Johnson & Johnson/Shire)
• Namenda (memantine; Forest/Merz/Lundbeck)
• Solanezumab (Eli Lilly)
• Gammagard (intravenous immunoglobulin; Baxter)
• SB-742457 (GlaxoSmithKline)
• Lu AE58054 (Lundbeck)
• EVP-6124 (EnVivo Pharmaceuticals)

參考文獻

• 論文雜誌
• Ｗｅｂ站點

附錄

Introduction

The Alzheimer's disease market across the seven major markets is set to double in value over the next 10 years, from $5.3bn in 2011 to $12.6bn in 2021. The catalysts for this growth include an increasingly elderly population, earlier and improved diagnosis, and the introduction of new therapeutic classes.

Features and benefits

• Access Datamonitor's patient-based Alzheimer's disease market forecast in the seven major markets, with transparent methodology and clear assumptions.
• Evaluate a highly granular forecast with sales value and volume projections to 2021 at the country, class, product, and indication level.
• Understand Alzheimer's disease market dynamics and which factors will lead to commercial success.
• Review the products Datamonitor forecasts to launch over the next 10 years, and how each subsequent launch will shape the market.

Highlights

Pfizer/Eisai's Aricept (donepezil) remained the highest-selling brand in 2011 with Forest/Lundbeck/Merz's Namenda (memantine) close behind. However, the two drugs are following differing growth trajectories: Namenda's sales will continue to rise while Aricept's revenues are being severely eroded by generic competition.

Beta-amyloid immunotherapies such as solanezumab and Gammagard have the potential to grow the market by $5.1bn. Datamonitor forecasts that around 360,000 patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease will receive immunotherapies annually by 2021 in the seven major markets.

Your key questions answered

• What degree of commercial success does Datamonitor forecast for key pipeline drugs?
• What will the overall Alzheimer's disease market dynamics be over the next 10 years?
• How will sales of the major drug classes in Alzheimer's disease evolve during the forecast period?
• Which of the seven major markets provides the greatest opportunity for growth?
• Which Alzheimer's disease indications are the most lucrative?

OVERVIEW

• Catalyst
• Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Datamonitor key findings

MARKET DEFINITION

• Market definition for this disease

• Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • Methodology flow
  • Price assumptions
  • Compliance assumptions
  • Patent expiries
  • New product launches

MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT

• Current and future market dynamics overview
  • The Alzheimer's disease market is set to more than double over the next 10 years
  • Immunotherapies will provide the impetus for growth
  • Treatment of the early stages of disease will become extremely lucrative

PRODUCT FORECASTS

• Product dynamics
  • Namenda is on the brink of replacing Aricept as the highest-selling Alzheimer's disease brand
  • The pipeline is projected to capture a 50% market share by 2021

• Aricept (donepezil; Eisai/Pfizer)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • Aricept forecast 2011 - 21

• Exelon (rivastigmine; Novartis)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • Exelon forecast 2011 - 21

• Razadyne (galantamine; Johnson & Johnson/Shire)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • Razadyne forecast 2011 - 21

• Namenda (memantine; Forest/Merz/Lundbeck)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • Namenda forecast 2011 - 21

• Solanezumab (Eli Lilly)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • Solanezumab forecast 2011 - 21

• Gammagard (intravenous immunoglobulin; Baxter)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • Gammagard forecast 2011 - 21

• SB-742457 (GlaxoSmithKline)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • SB-742457 forecast 2011 - 21

• Lu AE58054 (Lundbeck)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • Lu AE58054 forecast 2011 - 21

• EVP-6124 (EnVivo Pharmaceuticals)
  • Forecast assumptions
  • EVP-6124 forecast 2011 - 21

BIBLIOGRAPHY

• Journal papers
• Websites

APPENDIX

• Contributing experts
• Conferences attended
• Forecast methodology
• -Volume and value forecast methodology
• -Physician sample breakdown

• Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in Alzheimer's disease, by ATC code, 2012
• Table: DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer's disease
• Table: Price sources and calculations, by country, 2012
• Table: Exchange rates used for calculating prices, 2012
• Table: Estimated patent expiry/generic launch dates for key brands in Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets, 2011 - 21
• Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products and marketed brands in Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets, 2011 - 21
• Table: Alzheimer's disease market sales value ($m) and volume (patient numbers) dynamics in the seven major markets, 2011 - 21
• Table: Alzheimer's disease class sales value ($m) and volume (number of patients) dynamics in the seven major markets, 2011 - 21
• Table: Alzheimer's disease drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Aricept (donepezil; Eisai/Pfizer) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Exelon (rivastigmine; Novartis) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Razadyne (galantamine; Johnson & Johnson/Shire) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Namenda (memantine; Forest/Merz/Lundbeck) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Solanezumab (Eli Lilly) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Gammagard (intravenous immunoglobulin; Baxter) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: SB-742457 (GlaxoSmithKline) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Lu AE58054 (Lundbeck) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: EVP-6124 (EnVivo Pharmaceuticals) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US and Japan ($m), 2011 - 21
• Table: Neurologists surveyed regarding Alzheimer's disease across the seven major markets, 2011

• Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for Alzheimer's disease, 2012
• Figure: Alzheimer's disease market sales value in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Alzheimer's disease drug class sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Alzheimer's disease indication sales dynamics in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Alzheimer's disease drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Alzheimer's disease marketed drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Alzheimer's disease pipeline drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Aricept (donepezil; Eisai/Pfizer) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Exelon (rivastigmine; Novartis) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Razadyne (galantamine; Johnson & Johnson/Shire) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Namenda (memantine; Forest/Merz/Lundbeck) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Solanezumab (Eli Lilly) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Gammagard (intravenous immunoglobulin; Baxter) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: SB-742457 (GlaxoSmithKline) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: Lu AE58054 (Lundbeck) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK ($m), 2011 - 21
• Figure: EVP-6124 (EnVivo Pharmaceuticals) sales forecast for Alzheimer's disease in the US and Japan ($m), 2011 - 21