Abstract
Introduction
Increased caloric intake and physical inactivity are the two major prominent risk factors for obesity. Datamonitor epidemiologists expect the number of prevalent cases of childhood overweight (including obesity) to increase in the seven major markets over the next 10 years, driving the increase in adult prevalent cases of overweight and obesity.
Features And Benefits
• Gain insight into market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiology forecast of obesity prevalent cases.
• Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated with obesity.
Highlights
Datamonitor epidemiologists forecast that in 2010 there were roughly 29 million prevalent cases of overweight (including obesity) among children ages 0-19 in the seven major markets, and approximately 28.69 million cases are predicted for 2020.
The US will have the largest number of prevalent cases of overweight adults over the age of 20, with 75.81 million prevalent cases. However, Japan will also have a considerable burden of overweight adults with 21.60 million overweight adults in 2010.
Obesity prevalence is expected to marginally increase by approximately 1% over the forecast period, from 118.75 million prevalent cases in 2010. Datamonitor epidemiologists forecast that there will be 128.43 million prevalent cases of adult obesity in the seven major markets in 2020.
Your Key Questions Answered
• What are the most robust sources for obesity prevalence data?
• How will the patient population change over the next decade in the US, Japan, and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK)?
• How do changes in population structure and risk factors affect the trend in prevalent obesity cases?
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Childhood overweight/obesity
Adult overweight
Adult obesity
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSTIC CRITERIA
Overview of adult obesity
Overview of childhood obesity
Disease definition for adults
Disease definition for children
GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS
Global variation
Historical trends
DRIVERS OF OBESITY EPIDEMIOLOGY
Excessive caloric intake is one of the major causes of obesity
Physical inactivity plays a major role in the development of obesity
Increasing BMI is associated with mortality
The risk of overweight and obesity is higher in patients on certain medications
The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular disease is paradoxical
A complex genetic and environmental interaction increases susceptibility to obesity
Smoking cessation is associated with weight gain
EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF OBESITY
Overview
US
Sources used
Methods
Japan
Sources used
Methods
France
Sources used
Methods
Germany
Sources used
Methods
Italy
Sources used
Methods
Spain
Sources used
Methods
UK
Sources used
Methods
EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS
Total prevalent cases of childhood overweight (including obesity)
Current prevalent cases
Average annual growth rate
Age-standardized results
Subpopulations for prevalent cases of childhood overweight and obesity
Children aged 15-19 will have the largest proportion of overweight/obese prevalent cases in all major markets
Boys under the age of 20 will have more prevalent cases of childhood overweight/obesity than girls
Total prevalent cases of overweight (BMI 25-29kg/m2) adults
Current prevalent cases
Average annual growth rate
Age-standardized results
Subpopulations for prevalent cases of overweight
Adults aged 45-49 will have the largest burden of overweight cases in 2010
In 2010, there were more prevalent cases of overweight men than women in all markets, except the US and the UK
Total prevalent cases of obesity (BMI ≥30kg/m2) in adults
Current prevalent cases
Average annual growth rate
Age-standardized results
Subpopulations for prevalent cases of obesity in adults
In 2010, adults aged 45-49 accounted for nearly 12.5 million prevalent cases of obesity
Women in the US accounted for 35% of all prevalent obesity cases in the seven major markets in 2010
DISCUSSION
Childhood overweight/obesity
Overweight and obese children become overweight and obese adults
Adult overweight/obesity
Overweight and obesity in Japan pose an alarming public health problem
The strength of Datamonitor' s epidemiologic projections
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal articles
Websites
Appendix
Module methodology
