本報告已在2012年04月02日停止出版。
更改為出版
UK Mortgage Market in 2012 and Future Outlook
出版日期 : 2012年03月
商品編碼: 235255
英國房屋貸款市場仍受2010年信用風暴之餘波影響。供應商因受貸款資金不足而苦惱，且消費者信心指數低落使需求受到負面影響，預計市場於011年將不會有所改善。
本報告為，調查分析英國房屋貸款市場，並評估匯整影響市場之宏觀經濟因素、法規趨勢、利率趨勢、資金限制、法規等因素、2011年至2015年貸款展望，以下列摘要形式闡述。
第1章 DATAMONITOR之見解
第2章 分析
- Datamonitor預測今後5年總貸款額市場將趨於嚴峻
- 2015年止總貸款額將只成長至2,000億£
- 樂觀來看2015年止總貸款額將可達2,200億£
- 悲觀預測2015年止總貸款額將達1,800億£
- 2010年業務不活絡
- 2010年總貸款額將不會超過2009年水準
- 英國經濟不穩定抑制了消費者房屋貸款需求
- 融資於2010年仍呈現低迷
- 2010年房屋貸款利息幾乎沒有變化
- 購屋行為跌落谷底
- 未使用之借貸金額雖穩定但仍未開始恢復
- 風暴後之房價恢復於2010年前半結束
- 2010年遲繳及佔用減少
- 2010年房屋貸款回顧上皆為不安因素
- 2011年成長預測較為保守
- 2011年房屋貸款將遲緩發展
- Datamonitor預計年度基本利率為1%
- 2011年房價將有機會持平
- 今後將更具資金挑戰壓力
- 高LTV房屋貸款之低可用性成為首次購屋者之阻礙
- 2011年遲繳及佔用有可能些微增加
- 2011年僅有投資房屋貸款於主要部門中可望大幅成長
附錄
Abstract
Introduction
The UK mortgage market continued to suffer from the after effects of the
credit crunch in 2010. A lack of funding restricted the ability of providers
to increase lending, and demand was adversely affected low consumer
confidence. Matters are unlikely to improve in 2011, and the best that can be
hoped for is a slow and gradual recovery.
Features and benefits
• Summarizes the main macroeconomic and regulatory developments affecting
the mortgage market.
• Assesses the impact of interest rate movements, funding constraints,
increased regulation and other factors upon the mortgage market.
• Sets out Datamonitor’s gross lending forecasts for the period
2011-2015.
Highlights
Remortgaging activity was slow throughout 2010, as borrowers remained inclined
to remain on low standard variable rates. However, renewed speculation about
possible rises in the base rate over the next few months could help to fuel a
partial recovery in this market.
House prices will, at best, remain static in 2011, as consumer demand for
housing falls in response to higher taxation, spending cuts and decreasing
real incomes. This will limit the amount of equity many homeowners have in
their properties, reducing their ability to remortgage or move home. Providers
may also be less inclined to lend as a result
Funding remains problematic. New securitizations are scarce, and are not
keeping pace with redemptions. Lenders will also have to deal with the winding
down of government support through the Special Liquidity Scheme and Credit
Guarantee Scheme. Forthcoming Basel guidelines will severely restrict the
ability of banks to lend at high loan-to-values.
Your key questions answered
• Understand the key factors that will drive the mortgage market in 2011
and beyond.
• Assess the prospects for an increase in lending activity in 2011.
• Use Datamonitor’s forecasts to help inform your future
plans.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
Catalyst
Summary
ANALYSIS
Datamonitor forecasts a lean market for gross lending over
the next five years
Gross lending will rise to just
£200bn by 2015
Under the optimistic scenario, gross
lending will reach £220bn in 2015
The pessimistic forecast sees gross
lending growing to £180bn by 2015
Business activity was sluggish throughout 2010
Gross lending in 2010 did not improve on
the levels seen in 2009
The fragile state of the UK economy has
held back consumer demand for mortgages
Remortgaging levels remained depressed
throughout 2010
Mortgage interest rates barely shifted in
2010
House purchase activity appears to have
bottomed out
Credit availability has stabilized, but
not yet begun to recover
The post-crash recovery in house prices
ended in early 2010
Arrears and possessions declined in
2010
Uncertainty surrounded progress on the
Mortgage Market Review in 2010
Prospects for growth in 2011 are subdued
Mortgage lending got off to a slow start
in 2011
Datamonitor expects the base rate to end
the year at 1%
House prices are likely to remain flat at
best in 2011
Funding issues will become more pressing
as the year progresses
Poor availability of high LTV mortgages
will continue to hinder first-time buyers
Arrears and possessions may rise slightly
in 2011
Buy-to-let is the only major sector of
the market that will see significant growth in 2011
APPENDIX
Supplementary data
Definitions
Bank of England base rate
CAGR
Gross advances
Remortgaging
RMBS
Methodology
Forecasting methodology
Further reading
Ask the analyst
Datamonitor consulting
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