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市場調查報告書
歐盟排放交易機制（EU ETS）中的航空事業
Aviation in the EU ETS
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歐盟排放交易機制（EU ETS）中的航空事業 是由出版商Datamonitor在2010年07月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書價格從美金2695起跳。
未來10年預估將大幅成場的航空事業，對於氣候變化的問題必須負起嚴重的責任。航空事業欠缺減少Co2排放的國際性防範，經由EU﹝歐盟﹞單方的措施，加入排放交易機制(EU-ETS）對象地區中的國際航空排放量，合計出同領域的全球排放量。
針對歐盟排放交易機制中的航空事業，本報告書提供最新現況與情報，並彙整了未來預測與問題分析等數據介紹，內容概要摘記如下。
概要
分析
- 航空旅遊業嚴重影響氣候變化，成為環境政策的規範對象
- 排放交易藉由經濟上的禮遇措施抑止污染的惡化
- 航空旅遊業急遽加速地球溫暖化
- 航空產業無視對於氣候變化的擔憂，碳排放量仍舊呈現增加的趨勢
- 在2025年之前，航空交通量預計將以年平均4.6%的成長率持續成長
- 比較過去15年的碳排放量，航空事業遠遠大於運輸領域
- 排放交易的批判者屢次指責複雜性/監測/實施/初期分配方法/上限的相關問題
- 航空事業對於改善環境汙染的進度，在國際舞台上尚未有明顯的成效
- 在哥本哈根氣候會議上，為了抑止國際航空事業排放量所訂定的目標已告失敗
- 在各種開發階段中，對於各國排放交易的構想，預計都將影響未來的航空事業
- 關於適用於航空事業的國際性ETS，不論是聯合國氣候變化綱要公約（UNFCCC）或是ICAO（國際民航組織），EU為了避免重覆計算，必須檢討需要修正的既有命令
- 2012年以後，國際航空事業將成為EU ETS的規範對象
- EU ETS是現今最大且最具規模的交易措施
- EU ETS在第三階段將大幅擴展
- 2012年以後，所有航行於歐盟地區內的航空路線，都將遵循碳排放量的上限
- 於2010年1月將開始監測與報告航空事業領域的碳排放量
- 航空事業在緊迫的時間中改善嚴苛的現狀，持續抑制惡化狀況
- 適用於航空事業的規範與EU ETS領域中規範的事項有所不同
- 在現今的法律問題中，將航空事業加入EU ETS
- 京都議定書第2條第2項中，規定航空事業改善環境汙染時，當事者必須通過ICAO進行作業。自1998年以來，ICAO負責調查航空事業的排放量，但進度甚為緩慢
- 航空業者達到減少排放量規範的可能性近於零
- 航空事業的排出量與旅遊業的能源效率、燃料的碳密度、飛行距離間的相關數值
- 燃料效率的改善未能追上航空需求的成長
- 數間航空公司使用生質燃料進行飛行實驗
- 提升飛行效率可偶發性且短暫地減少碳排出量
- EU ETS的合計在航空業界中具備差別化的效果
- 航空公司對於環境汙染的標價，在該領域事業中引起各種未知的風險
- EU ETS加入航空事業後，對於本已陷入困境的產業將帶來更大的財政負擔
- 目前碳的低價對於飛行費用並無大影響
- 不論碳的價格如何影響飛行費用，其變化程度是取決於市場區隔
- 於2020年之前達到航空事業領域中碳中和的成長，所需的花費是1.3兆歐元
- 針對EU ETS未來的改變，航空業者面臨成本的增加
- 業者在實行EU ETS下可有效運用利潤商機
- 擴大政策的結果，將導致其他加入EU ETS市場的業者提升碳價格
- 航空事業領域是實質碳分配量的購買者，在EU ETS中扮演推動碳價格的角色
- 從長期性的角度去分析，可發現碳價格的提升並非受到EU ETS的影響
附錄
圖表
Abstract
Introduction
With the aviation sector predicted to grow dramatically in the next decade,
the issue of climate change is weighing heavily on the industry. Following a
lack of international progress by the aviation industry towards reducing
emissions, the EU has acted unilaterally to include international aviation
emissions in the EU ETS, covering a substantial portion of the global
industry' s emissions.
Scope of this research
- Projections of air travel demand growth and the impact on carbon emissions
from the sector
- An overview of monitoring, reporting and verification requirements facing
aircraft operators under the EU ETS
- A review of the carbon abatement opportunities currently available to
airlines and the associated costs
- Analysis of how inclusion of the aviation sector in the EU ETS will affect
the carbon price and thus other market participants
Research and analysis highlights
Air travel is a clear environmental policy target due to its increasing
contribution to anthropogenic climate change. Currently contributing 2% to
global carbon emissions, this percentage is likely to grow in tandem with an
increase in air travel, offsetting emissions reduction progress in other
sectors
The inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS will have a significant financial
impact on an industry already struggling to make profits. However, the
magnitude of these effects will depend on the market segment covered by the
individual aircraft operator
Carbon prices faced by other EU ETS market participants will rise as a result
of the planned expansion of the scheme as the aviation industry is likely to
be a net purchaser of carbon allowances
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Profit from analytical insight into the outcome of the planned expansion
of the EU ETS in its third phase
- Review how the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS will impact your
current business strategy
- Assess compliance obligations now facing the aviation industry as a
participant in the EU ETS
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
ANALYSIS
- Air travel is a clear environmental policy target due to its increasing
contribution to anthropogenic climate change.
- Emissions trading is an administrative approach used to control
pollution by way of economic incentives
- Air travel makes a significant contribution to global warming
- The aviation industry is one of the few sectors where carbon emissions
are still growing despite climate change concerns
- Air traffic is anticipated to grow at an average rate of 4.6% per year
through to 2025
- In the past 15 years, aviation' s contribution to the transport sector' s
carbon emissions increased tenfold
- Emissions trading critics often point to problems associated with
complexity, monitoring, enforcement and the initial allocation methods and cap.
- Progress to combat the aviation sector' s climate change impact is yet to
be seen on the international stage
- Copenhagen climate talks failed to set global targets to limit emissions
from international aviation
- Emissions trading schemes around the world in varying stages of
development will likely affect aviation in the future
- Should an international ETS be created for the aviation sector, whether
through the UNFCCC or the ICAO, the European Commission would consider
amending the directive as necessary in order to avoid double counting.
- From 2012 the international aviation sector will be included in the EU ETS.
- The EU ETS is currently the largest and most developed emissions trading
system
- In its third phase, the EU ETS will undergo significant expansion
- From 2012 all airlines operating in the EU will be subject to caps on
their carbon emissions
- Monitoring and reporting of carbon emissions in the aviation sector
began in January 2010
- Emissions caps facing the aviation sector will tighten over time to
encourage continuous emissions reductions
- The rules facing the aviation industry differ from those for other
sectors participating in the EU ETS
- Despite current legal challenges, aviation will be included in the EU ETS
- Article 2(2) of the Kyoto Protocol asks parties to ' work through' the ICAO
in order to address the aviation sector' s climatic impacts. The ICAO has been
investigating the issue of aviation emissions since 1998, but progress has
been slow.
- Aircraft operators have only a few easily achievable abatement
opportunities.
- Aviation emissions are a function of the energy efficiency of travel,
the carbon intensity of fuel and the distance of flight
- Potential fuel efficiency gains will not keep up with growth in demand
for air travel
- Several airlines have conducted test flights making use of biofuels
- Improvements in operational efficiency offer one-off, near-term
potential carbon emissions reductions
- Inclusion in the EU ETS will have differential effects across the aviation
industry.
- Pricing an airline' s environmental impact introduces a range of new
risks for those operating in the sector
- The inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS will have a significant
financial impact on an industry already struggling to make profits
- Current low carbon prices will not have a large impact on airlines'
operating costs
- Any change to an airline' s operating costs due to carbon pricing will
vary depending on the market segment served
- To achieve carbon-neutral growth in the aviation sector by 2020 would
cost €1.3 trillion
- Future alterations to the EU ETS will increase compliance costs facing
airline operators
- Better-prepared operators will be able to take advantage of
opportunities to profit from aviation' s inclusion in the EU ETS
- Carbon prices faced by other EU ETS market participants will rise as a
result of the planned expansion of the scheme.
- The aviation sector will be a net purchaser of carbon allowances,
putting upward pressure on carbon prices in the EU ETS
- In the long term, carbon prices faced by fixed installations will
increase, but not as a result of aviation' s inclusion in the EU ETS
APPENDIX
- Definitions
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
FIGURES
- Figure: Air travel contributes to climate change through the release of CO2
- Figure: Global emissions from aviation have increased 109% in the past 20
years
- Figure: Following a substantial drop in 2009, aviation traffic is set to
return to pre-recession levels in 2010
- Figure: Global air transport demand could grow by a factor of four over
the next three decades
- Figure: Air travel is one of the world' s fastest growing sources of
greenhouse gas emissions, and is therefore a clear policy target
- Figure: The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which
represents 93% of international air traffic, has set several environmental
goals in the absence of progress from the ICAO
- Figure: Without international agreement individual regions will implement
unilateral measures to reduce emissions, resulting in patchwork regulation and
an international airline' s nightmare.
- Figure: From 2012, the EU ETS will be expanded to incorporate new sectors
and cover new gases, in addition to tighter emissions caps for current
participants.
- Figure: Airlines should be aware of important compliance dates as
penalties are severe
- Figure: Submitting accurate emissions data is extremely important due to
the potential for airlines to secure free carbon allowances
- Figure: In order to cut emissions, airline operators can increase energy
efficiency of travel, lower the carbon intensity of fuel or reduce distance
travelled. Under the EU ETS, operators will also have the option of buying
carbon allowances
- Figure: Aviation has seen a long series of gradual cuts in fuel usage as a
result of increasing engine efficiency and the use of lightweight materials
for the body
- Figure: Progress has been made on the development of aviation biofuels,
with several successful test flights carried out. The focus has been on
' drop-in' fuels that can be used in the existing aircraft fleet
- Figure: Aircraft operators subject to emissions caps under the EU ETS
should be aware of the number of new risks with which their business model now
has to contend
- Figure: In the past decade the aviation industry has lost $50 billion, $11
billion of which in 2009 alone
- Figure: At current levels, carbon pricing is unlikely to significantly
affect the operating costs of airlines
- Figure: A number of factors may change the course of carbon prices, and
thereby the costs of compliance for airline operators
- Figure: IATA' s target of carbon neutral growth will be costly for the
aviation industry
- Figure: Revisions to the emissions cap and auctioning proportion are due
in 2014, which will increase costs incurred by the aviation sector due to
participation in the EU ETS
- Figure: Using a cheapest credits first approach, airlines can minimize
compliance costs by taking advantage of the difference in carbon allowances
prices
- Figure: EU emissions are projected to increase as the region returns to
economic expansion following the global economic downturn
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