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市場調查報告書
英國的塑膠貨幣市場：2011年
UK Plastic Cards: Outlook to 2012
| 出版商 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日期 |
2011年05月 |
商品編碼 |
121420 |
| 內容資訊 |
英文 Pages: 53, Slides: 12 |
| 價格 |
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本報告已在2011年06月15日停止出版。
更改為出版
UK Plastic Cards: Outlook to 2012
出版日期 : 2011年05月
商品編碼: 200368
英國的塑膠貨幣市場在2009年受到嚴重打擊後，2010年也持續走低。
此報告書針對英國的塑膠貨幣市場進行調查分析，並針對今後的課題及對產業產生影響的因素進行考察並統整，以下列方式構成考察。
第1章 概要
第2章 英國的信用卡市場
- 雖然一般認為已經脫離最糟糕的時期，但還殘留著營收方面的問題
- 居高不下的失業率
- 帳單無法回收將未支付餘額的改善難度又提高了
- 破產的命令及IVA增加代表趨於安定
- 持續縮減的信用卡市場
- 消費者的償還情形良好，刷爆的情況減少
- 2009年發行信用卡的公司因為畏懼風險，發行卡數驟減
- 不景氣也還是持續消費的使用者
- 2009年的交易額度減少至2008年的水準之下
- 交易數量雖然一樣，但交易的額度減少
- 從ATM提款的金額也減少
- 消費者的現狀是轉而開始注意低廉物品，對此期待也提高
- 來自debit card的威脅仍舊沒有解除
第3章 DATAMONITOR的預測
- 信用卡市場在2010年縮水2.7％，預計2011年將會有2.5％成長
- 消費者信用市場整體縮水
- 2010年的信用卡利用額度減少至1106億英鎊
- POS信用卡交易雖然在2010年減少2.6％，但預計2011年將會有2.8％恢復
- 從ATM扣款的信用卡，扣款的額度預計到2011年為止都會持續減少
- 微觀指標指出2010-2011是最嚴峻的時期
- debit card則持續成長，在2010年有4.9％的成長，2011年則估計有4.5%成長
第4章 為了將來的利益，現在所必須重視的課題
- 慎重管理風險
- 信用卡發行公司對於營收的威脅必須採取持續守成的態度
- 信用卡發行公司不該只有保持現狀，也該對業務成長及借款款項投入精力
- 信用卡使用的增加是發行公司的業務優先事項
- 市場正在作準備要讓Charge Card復活
附錄
Abstract
Introduction
With the slowdown in the global economy the UK card market went through a
severe shake up in 2009 which will continue into 2010. This report offers an
insight into what shape these changes will take, and the impact on the cards
industry through to 2011. By using the most up to date market indicators this
report highlights what will be the key influencers in a challenging
environment.
Scope
- Part of the UK Plastic Cards series this report provides insight into the
recessions full impact and the first signs of recovery
- Using the latest figures, the report focuses on the continued impact from
the rise in unemployment on write-offs and transaction values
- Other key indicators covered in this report include shifts in consumer
card use, and the growing threat from debit
- By using the latest available market data the report offers in-depth
analysis of likely forecast scenarios through to 2011
Highlights
2009 has proven to be one of the most difficult years in the history of UK
plastic cards. High unemployment, economic uncertainty and record levels of
credit card write offs have led to a sharp shock for the industry. The credit
card market has witnessed a decline across all metrics that will continue for
much of 2010.
Although unemployment is high, it has not risen as high as initially feared.
Consumer insolvencies remain at an all time high but are stabilising, while
credit card write offs have likely peaked. The worst of the recession appears
to be over, as the market shows its first signs of improvement. Issuers need
to now return to a lending strategy.
The threat posed by debit to the credit card market is growing as a result of
the recession. Consumers are shifting away from all forms of debt fuelled
spending. Even as credit cards fall from favour, debit cards continue to see
growth. The gap between debit and credit is widening and will only become more
difficult to close with time.
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand the dramatic changes affecting the cards industry, with the
latest available market data providing real world insight
- Learn what the key factors that will shape the UK cards market post
downturn are and the likely shape of the market in the future
- Develop strategies for dealing with the aftermath of the global downturn
by having an accurate account of what is happening now
Table of Contents
- Overview
- Catalyst
- Summary
- Table of Contents
- Table of Figures
- Table of Tables
- The UK Credit Card Market: the Worst is Over but Trouble Remains
- The worst may be over but challenges to revenue remain
- Unemployment is stabilizing but remains high
- Card write-offs show a pattern of sharp peaks followed by stability
- In real terms, write-offs are increasing following a peak in Q3 2009
- Card write-offs outweigh any momentary improvements in balances outstanding
- Bankruptcy orders and IVAs have grown but show initial signs of stabilizing
- The credit card market is shrinking as both balances and transaction
values fall
- Overdraft borrowing is in decline, as consumers are paying off their
outstanding overdraft balances
- Card numbers fell dramatically in 2009 as issuers reduced their exposure
to risk
- Consumers continue to behave in a recessionary manner
- The value of transactions in 2009 fell below 2008 levels
- The number of transactions has stabilized, but consumers are spending less
on each transaction
- Consumers are taking out less cash from ATMs and at subdued rates
- Confidence and expectations have increased even though consumers' present
situation remains poor
- The long-term challenges from debit are undiminished as credit card
transactions shrink
- Datamonitor Forecasts a 2.7% Fall in the Credit Card Market in 2010
- The credit card market will decline by 2.7% in 2010, but will grow by 2.5%
in 2011
- Consumer credit as a whole will continue to fall
- Compared to other forms of consumer credit, credit card lending has
remained relatively stable
- The value of credit card transactions will decline in 2010, reaching
£110.6 billion
- POS credit card transactions will decline 2.6% in 2010 before rebounding
by 2.8% in 2011
- Following long-term trends, ATM credit card withdrawals will decline
through to 2011
- Macro-level indicators suggest that 2010-11 will be a difficult period
- Debit cards will remain stable, with transaction value growth of 4.9% and
4.5% across 2010 and 2011
- Issuers Need to Refocus on Growth Now to Reap the Benefits Later
- Risks must be carefully managed, as write-offs continue to pose a threat
- Issuers must remain on guard against continued threats to their revenues
- Issuers also need to focus on growth and lending, not just defense
- Increasing card usage must be a priority for issuers
- Loyalty programs help drive card usage
- Lowering interest rates will help increase spend levels
- The market is ready for a return of charge cards
- Consumers may be more willing to pay annual fees for a charge card
APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Insolvencies, card write-offs and unemployment
- Consumer credit gross advances
- Datamonitor' s forecast for the credit card market under a neutral scenario
- Datamonitor' s forecast for the credit card market under an optimistic
scenario
- Datamonitor' s forecast for the credit card market under a pessimistic
scenario
- Definitions
- AAGR
- APACS
- Average transaction value
- Balances outstanding
- Bank of England base rate
- CAGR
- Charge card
- Credit card
- Debit card
- Decoupled Debit
- Methodology
- Primary research
- Secondary research
- Forecast methodology
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
List of Tables
- Table 1: Historic and forecast credit card market under a neutral scenario
- Table 2: Historic and forecast market drivers under neutral, optimistic
and pessimistic scenarios, 2005-11
- Table 3: Historic and forecast debit card market under a neutral scenario
- Table 4: Insolvencies, credit card write-offs and unemployment, 2005-09
- Table 5: Year-on-year growth in, insolvencies, card write-offs and
unemployment
- Table 6: Historic and forecast consumer credit gross advances
- Table 7: Historic and forecast year-on-year growth in consumer credit
gross advances (%)
- Table 8: Neutral scenario for the historic and forecast credit card
market, 2008-11
- Table 9: Historic and forecast drivers of the consumer credit market under
a neutral scenario, 2008-11
- Table 10: Optimistic scenario for the historic and forecast credit card
market, 2008-11
- Table 11: Historic and forecast drivers of the consumer credit market
under an optimistic scenario, 2008-11
- Table 12: Pessimistic scenario for the historic and forecast credit card
market, 2008-11
- Table 13: Historic and forecast drivers of the consumer credit market
under a pessimistic scenario, 2008-11
- Table 14: Future relevant publications 2010
- Table 15: Future relevant publications, 2010
List of Figures
- Figure 1: Card write-offs have likely peaked, but will remain high through
2010
- Figure 2: Q3 2009 saw the highest level of card write-offs ever, at
£1.6 billion
- Figure 3: Write-offs constitute a major share of the change in balances
outstanding in many quarters
- Figure 4: Personal insolvencies remain high, but show signs of stabilizing
- Figure 5: Both transactions and balances are falling, but balances show a
greater rate of decline
- Figure 6: Following a period of growth, overdraft balances are in decline
- Figure 7: Issuers are slashing the number of dormant accounts, with a 10%
fall in cards in issue
- Figure 8: Transaction values have remained lower than the previous year,
but not across every month
- Figure 9: Transaction volumes in 2009 are broadly similar to 2008, but
average values are lower
- Figure 10: ATM withdrawals increased in 2009, but withdrawal values have
remained flat
- Figure 11: Although the present situation remains poor for many,
confidence and expectations are high
- Figure 12: The gap between credit and debit is growing as credit declines
while debit continues to grow
- Figure 13: The consumer credit market will decline to a value of
£164 billion in 2010
- Figure 14: All forms of consumer credit are forecast to improve in 2010
- Figure 15: The value of credit card transactions will return to growth in
2011
- Figure 16: POS credit card transactions will reach £109.7 billion in
2011
- Figure 17: ATM withdrawals will continue their decline, and will remain
below £4 billion to 2011 and beyond
- Figure 18: Under all scenarios the credit card market will continue to
decline in 2010, before rising in 2011
- Figure 19: Debit use at the POS has been little affected by the downturn
and will grow through to 2011
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