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市場調查報告書
歐洲天然氣批發市場
European Wholesale Gas Market Development
| 出版商 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日期 |
2010年02月 |
商品編碼 |
114497 |
| 內容資訊 |
英文 33 pages |
| 價格 |
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歐洲天然氣批發市場 是由出版商Datamonitor在2010年02月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含33 pages 價格從美金2795起跳。
歐洲的天然氣批發市場之間，保有流動性和價格效率等，在發展階段有著很大的差異。
本報告，針對歐洲天然氣批發市場的發展水準和流動性進行調查分析，同時會整合市場的短期•中期變化的預測、影響市場的因素等，由下列摘要形式闡述。
第1章 DATAMONITOR的見解
第2章 分析
- 天然氣批發中心的發展預期將使得競爭增加，強化了供應上的安全保障，增進市場效率
- EU透過促進單一整合的天然氣批發市場來持續增加競爭
- 市場上的傳統價格結構為競爭的阻礙
- 批發中心的發展與 gas-on-gas 定價促進供應上的安全保障
- 批發中心的流動性的適當水準，對於有競爭力的歐洲天然氣市場的發展來說是不可或缺的
- 批發市場的發展傾向
- 批發市場的發展過程
- 配套服務的必要性
- 市場基礎因子的重要性
- 天然氣批發市場的必要性
- 當前歐洲天然氣批發市場的發展階段
- 市場的成熟度與流動性所造成的4種類型
- 擴展至所有區塊的歐洲天然氣批發市場
- 流動性與市場發展水準的考察
- 各個市場水準有著很大的差異
- NBP的成熟度、高度流動性、強力的成長使成為歐洲主要天然氣市場的中心地位
- 歐洲流動性排名第2的為Zeebrugge
- TTF的成長
- CEGH的極限
- 歐洲的新興天然氣批發中心持續擴大交易量與流動性
- 歐洲新興市場的成長
- 歐洲天然氣批發市場的價格效率水準充斥著各種不安定
- 價格變動幅度與價格效率水準的考察
- 已建立市場的不安定程度大幅減少
- 市場開放的結果預期將減少市場的兩極化
- 批發流動性的預測
- 使用於批發市場發展預測的結構因子
- 批發市場的發展在歐洲的27個市場各有不同
- 被限定發展的批發市場集團
- 被認可發展的市場集團
- 3個已建立市場以外，、6個國家屬於充分發展集團
- NBP持續有優勢
附錄
Abstract
Introduction
Europe' s wholesale gas markets remain at widely differing stages of
development with levels of liquidity and price efficiency varying widely
between markets. As liberalisation develops further, increasing numbers of
players will be seeking to utilise these markets to source their gas supplies.
This brief examines the current status of these markets, and also analyses
their future prospects.
Scope of this research
- A detailed review of the levels of development and liquidity currently
prevailing in Europe' s wholesale gas markets.
- Insight into how the relative positioning of each of these markets is
likely to change in the short to medium term.
Knowledge of the factors driving wholesale market development and the
associated factors supporting market efficiency.
Research and analysis highlights
Datamonitor segments wholesale maturity and liquidity into four distinct
categories. Currently, Europe' s wholesale gas markets cover the full spectrum
of the developmental segmentations - nascent, emerging, established and mature.
As liberalisation develops, and as the resultant gas needs of new market
entrants increase, there is significant scope for rapid development in the
nascent and establishing markets to grow rapidly.
A number of countries are likely to see a renaissance in their levels of
wholesale market development in the coming years. One particular example of
this is Germany where high levels of retail market fragmentation, amongst
other factors, means that the German hubs have significant near term
developmental potential.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Gain an understanding of current and future wholesale gas procurement
options in the liberalised European market.
- Understand the degree to which individual wholesale markets are efficient
at conveying pricing signals.
- Track the likely development of European wholesale liquidity and the
resultant opportunity for efficient wholesale trading and procurement.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
ANALYSIS
- Wholesale gas hub development will lead to further competition, enhanced
security of supply and greater market efficiency
- The EU continues to strive for greater competition by promoting a
single, integrated wholesale gas market
- The market' s traditional pricing mechanisms present obstacles to
competition
- The development of wholesale hubs and more gas-on-gas pricing will lead
to greater security of supply
- Adequate levels of liquidity on wholesale hubs are integral for the
development of a competitive European gas market
- The development of wholesale markets tends to follow a preset pattern of
distinct stages
- The wholesale market development cycle gradually builds up enough
momentum to spawn the creation of wholesale support services
- Once sufficient structural factors are in place, the necessary support
services required for wholesale market development begin to emerge
- The market based factors supporting hub development are crucial elements
in facilitating and developing traded markets
- Wholesale gas markets are required by different players throughout the
value chain for different reasons
- Currently Europe' s wholesale gas markets cover the full range of
developmental stages
- Datamonitor segments wholesale maturity and liquidity into four distinct
categories
- Europe' s current wholesale gas markets cover the full spectrum of
segmentations
- Analysis of levels of churn provide an insight into levels of liquidity
and wholesale market development
- Current levels of churn in individual wholesale markets vary significantly
- The NBP' s maturity, deep liquidity and strong volume growth has led to
the hub' s position as Europe' s leading gas market
- Historically, the Zeebrugge has been Europe' s second most liquid hub
- The TTF has experienced remarkable liquidity growth and continues to
challenge the Zeebrugge in traded volumes
- Although having the potential to emerge as a key wholesale trading hub
the CEGH is limited by its single source of gas supply
- Europe' s emerging wholesale gas hubs continue to expand in both traded
volumes and liquidity
- Europe' s nascent markets are seeing renewed impetus towards development
- Price efficiency levels in the European wholesale markets show varying
ranges of volatility
- Datamonitor' s Deviation Days Index measures price movement ranges and
gives insight into levels of price efficiency
- Levels of volatility in the established markets have been decreasing
markedly
- The polarization of the markets will reduce in the wake of market opening
- Datamonitor forecasts future levels of wholesale liquidity by examining
a range of structural factors on a weighted average basis
- The structural factors used to predict wholesale market development
produce a sliding scale of scores
- Wholesale market development potential varies widely across the EU 27
gas markets
- The markets categorized in the limited progress grouping lack the
necessary structural factors required to catalyze wholesale activity
- Despite showing some degree of progress, markets in the discernable
progress segment will remain undeveloped
- In addition to the three established markets, there are six countries in
the substantial progress segment
- The NBP is likely to maintain its sustainable advantage over the long
term due to UK' s competitive spiral
APPENDIX
- Summary of Scores
- Natural Gas-Based Infrastructure - Project Pipeline (some examples)
- Scoring methodology for Structural Factors used to rate markets
- The “Impetus” metric examines the progress already made, and
being made, towards the establishment of a wholesale market
- The “Gas Penetration” metric examines the degree to which
gas has made an impact to the energy mix of a specific country
- The “Future Role of Gas Fired Power” metric has been used
because gas fired power generators are often significant wholesale gas
market users
- The “Demand Growth” metric is used because demand growth
can, in itself, be a key catalyst to wholesale activity
- The “Wholesale Market Fragmentation” metric gives an
indication of the potential impact on liquidity of upstream supplies and gas
imports
- The “Retail Market Fragmentation” metric provides insight on
the impact on wholesale development of retail market players needing to
source gas
- The ‘interconnectivity' metric is used to highlight current and
future opportunities for wholesale liquidity to be driven by cross-border
trading
- Glossary
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
FIGURES
- Figure: Liquidity in natural gas markets, as defined by the International
Energy Agency (IEA), incorporates four distinct market characteristics:
- Figure: The five distinct stages of wholesale market progression
- Figure: Wholesale support services emerge as the cycle builds momentum
- Figure: The interaction between structural and support factors creates a
‘snowball' effect
- Figure: The key support elements to wholesale market growth
- Figure: Different players engage in wholesale trading for different reasons
- Figure: Market Development in Europe
- Figure: Europe' s newer, less developed markets lag far behind the
established markets in terms of churn ratios
- Figure: The NBP remains Europe' s most liquid traded wholesale market
- Figure: Both the TTF and Zeebrugge have high levels of liquidity and churn
rates
- Figure: On balance, price volatility on the TTF and Zeebrugge has remained
significantly lower than at the NBP
- Figure: Structural factors used by Datamonitor to determine wholesale
liquidity
- Figure: Wholesale market development potential scale
- Figure: Development Scores
- Figure: The NBP' s competitive spiral
- Figure: Detailed breakdown of scores
- Figure: Gas - fired power generation and gas storage facilities
- Figure: Scoring scale
- Figure: Scoring scale
- Figure: Scoring scale
- Figure: Scoring scale
- Figure: Scoring scale
- Figure: Scoring scale
- Figure: Scoring scale
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