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市場調查報告書
COP15後能源公共事業的挑戰與市場機會
Challenges and opportunities for energy utility companies post-Copenhagen
| 出版商 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日期 |
2010年02月 |
商品編碼 |
114350 |
| 內容資訊 |
英文 32 pages |
| 價格 |
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COP15後能源公共事業的挑戰與市場機會 是由出版商Datamonitor在2010年02月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含32 pages 價格從美金2795起跳。
本研究報告針對COP15哥本哈根共識的概要與能源公共事業影響進行調查分析、提供美國氣候變動相關法案、可再生能源支援計畫與其成效、RGGI & CCX碳市場展望、EU碳價格動向、綠能產業投資展望等情報，內容摘記如下。
DATAMONITOR的看法
分析
- 哥本哈根共識的失敗：對能源公共事業有巨大影響
- 哥本哈根的氣候變動會議：無法達成全球期待的意義
- 無法針對氣候變動獲得有法律約束力的框架，只達成了表面協議
- 依照自由意志所暫定的國際氣候政策是前進了一小步
- 大多數重要的結構性挑戰並未解決
- 雖沒有明確指出能源相關細節，但對能源部門有廣泛的影響
- COP15雖無法成功組織對於碳及可再生能源的投資社群，但美國對於低碳投資與著力程度可望擴大
- "Something for everyone"：Kerry-Graham-Lieberman法案為聯邦政府氣候政策的關鍵因素
- 最新參議院法案：重視國家安全保障作為排污交易基礎
- 'Lesser of two evils（兩害取其輕）'：最近EPA瀕危調査、快速通過美國氣候法案的強烈辯護
- 排污交易將成為地區與州的義務
- 即使沒有碳市場，公共企業仍能受惠於各種地區與州的支援計畫。
- Kerry-Graham-Lieberman法案：美國能源價值鏈的公共企業未展現巨大市場機會、等
- COP15的議論將持續影響歐洲碳市場與投資程度
- 情緒反彈：COP15的失敗雖會影響EU碳價格，但基本面可望迅速恢復領導地位
- 中國・印度：2010年CDM最大市場
- COP15的失敗與限存CDM的極限：碳補償市場震盪因素
- 2012年以後法規的不確定性將成為CDM在2010年後新計畫的經濟經濟阻礙、等
- COP15：綠能科技投資家開始轉向推動低碳經濟
- 2009年對綠能科技的投資：下降較其他部門少
- 綠能科技産業：將COP15的失敗轉為本國與新興國家的市場機會與解釋
- 綠能科技投資：英美碳市場雖有大量不確定因素，但2010年後仍可望成長
- 中國可望成為綠能科技領域市場的領導者
- 中國可再生能源企業・從製造業者觀點來看綠能科技的黃金出口機會、等
附錄
圖表
Abstract
Introduction
The Copenhagen Accord is the manifestation of domestic, political and economic
realities in Washington and Beijing. It disappointed many observers of the
negotiations, having failed to deliver little more than a statement of intent
and no specific emission reduction targets. The implications for the energy
utilities industry and for investment in clean technology are nevertheless
significant.
Scope of this research
- An overview of the Copenhagen Accord, its comparative successes and the
key structural challenges it fails to address.
- A review of the latest US climate bill, US support schemes for renewable
energy and efficiency and the outlook for US RGGI & CCX carbon markets.
- Projections of EU carbon prices and the possibility of uncertainty over
post-2012 CER trading rules leading to a two tier carbon offset market.
- Reasons why trends towards renewable energies and energy efficiency will
remain unbroken in 2010 and our ' top 10' clean energy predictions for 2010.
Research and analysis highlights
In Europe, the Copenhagen talks will have knock on effects on carbon markets
and levels on investment, mainly in the near-term. The absence of any language
on CDM reform and the lack of specificity concerning carbon finance mechanisms
are causing jitters in the offset market and are undermining demand for
post-2012 CERs and new project development.
Copenhagen gave the energy cleantech community the sense, if not the tools,
that private investment will drive the transition to a low carbon economy.
Levels of low-carbon investment and deployment will grow in 2010. Alternatives
to cap and trade will emerge in the form of sub-national mandates and
incentives for ' clean' energy.
Life will not be breathed into the Copenhagen Accord at COP16: Mexico City
will deliver more stalemate. Progress on new global and US climate regimes
will be slow and unconvincing. The ' global' carbon market will fail to
materialize in 2010, as will outright carbon border taxes and an EU-wide
carbon tax.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Profit from first expert analytical insight into the outcome of the
world' s most significant climate change talks.
- Re-assess your company' s strategy based on your new understanding of how
Copenhagen will affect the world' s carbon and energy cleantech markets.
- Review how and where your company interacts with low-carbon or renewable
energy markets, based on longer-term trends and developments.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
ANALYSIS
- The implications of the failed Copenhagen Accord are significant for
energy utilities the world over
- The Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen failed to deliver the
meaningful negotiated outcome the world was hoping for
- While a new, credible and binding climate change framework was never
really up for grabs, some semblance of a deal has emerged
- The Copenhagen Accord took a small, albeit voluntary and provisional,
step forward on international climate policy
- The Copenhagen Accord left too many key structural challenges unresolved
- While the accord made no explicit mention of energy, the implications
for the energy sector are wide ranging
- US levels of low-carbon investment and deployment will rise, despite
Copenhagen' s failure to excite the carbon and renewable energy investment
community
- Something for everyone: Kerry-Graham-Lieberman is the primary vehicle
for US federal climate policy, no thanks to Copenhagen
- The latest Senate climate bill places new emphasis on national security
as a rationale for cap-and-trade
- ‘Lesser of two evils’: the recent EPA endangerment finding
makes a strong case for the prompt passing of a US climate bill
- US carbon markets will remain deflated until the economy or the odds of
a federal cap-and-trade program being passed pick up
- Much like their RGA counterpart, 2010 CFI contracts will remain deflated
and are unlikely to drive utility innovation in clean energy
- Alternatives to cap-and-trade will emerge in the form of sub-national
mandates and incentives for low-carbon energy
- In the absence of a carbon market, utilities can still benefit from a
wide range of sub-national support schemes
- Kerry-Graham-Lieberman does present significant opportunities for
utilities operating across the energy value chain in the US
- In Europe, the Copenhagen talks will have knock-on effects on carbon
markets and levels of investment, mainly in the immediate term
- Sentiment bounce: failed Copenhagen talks have affected EU carbon
prices, but fundamentals will quickly regain the upper hand
- China and India were the largest markets for CDM projects in 2010
- Failed Copenhagen talks coupled with the pre-existing limitations of the
CDM are causing jitters in the market for carbon offsets
- The lack of regulatory certainty post-2012 will constrain CDM financing
to the severe detriment of new offset projects post-2010
- Without a successor to Kyoto, CER could become a two-tier commodity
market made up of pre- and post-2013 CDM projects
- Copenhagen has given the energy cleantech community the sense that
cleantech investors will drive the transition towards a low carbon economy
- Investment in cleantech in 2009 declined less than in other sectors
- The energy cleantech industry will look past the failures of Copenhagen
to opportunities at home and in developing countries
- Energy cleantech investment will keep growing in 2010 and beyond,
despite great uncertainties in US and EU carbon markets
- China will remain a market leader in energy cleantech and could overtake
the US as cleantech leader in 2010
- From the point of view of Chinese renewable energy firms and
manufacturers, cleantech is a golden export opportunity
- Life will not be breathed into the Copenhagen Accord at COP16* - Mexico
City will deliver more stalemate
- Datamonitor' s 10 clean energy technology predictions for 2010 concern
players across the entire energy value chain
APPENDIX
- Glossary
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
FIGURES
- Figure: COP15 OUTCOMES: Energy is at the core of most developing
countries' ongoing climate change activities
- Figure: POST-COP15 IMPLICATIONS: Copenhagen has put into question many key
aspects of EU and US environmental policy
- Figure: The EPA will target heavy polluters: companies emitting more than
0.25mtCO2e a year will be affected, including many multi-nationals
- Figure: 2010 RGA prices will remain deflated: alone, they will not
meaningfully further utility-driven innovation in clean energy
- Figure: The Chicago Climate Exchange Carbon Financial Instrument (CCX CFI)
is suffering a tremendous lack of price tension
- Figure: The vast and growing number and types of government, utility and
non-profit financial incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency in
the US help explain growth levels in these markets
- Figure: A review of government and utility rules, regulations and policies
that promote renewables and energy efficiency in the US reveals a complex
patchwork of state-based climate regulations
- Figure: With nuclear, more oil and gas drilling, and a secure future for
coal (through CCS) celebrated alongside renewables, the Senate bill provides a
strong basis for the IEA' s 450 scenario
- Figure: Post-Copenhagen, the EU carbon market slumped: short-term
sentiment is bearish, but any impact will be transitory; longer term,
fundamentals will dominate
- Figure: The number of CER contracts issued globally increased in the
run-up to 2009
- Figure: At a time of increased economic and program uncertainty, there is
a strong case to be made for utilities avoiding new investments in Kyoto-based
global CDM markets in the short term
- Figure: A lack of clarity over emission liabilities and international
abatement mechanisms post-2012 will perpetuate carbon market uncertainty and a
drop in the number of new CDM projects in 2010
- Figure: Copenhagen' s committed spending obligation on clean technologies
and projects in developing countries is only one of the several reasons why
the sector is expected to continue to grow
- Figure: 2009 cleantech venture capital investment totaled $5.6 billion*,
despite a non-binding climate change accord in Copenhagen
- Figure: Copenhagen' s committed spending obligation on clean technologies
and projects in developing countries is only one of the several reasons why
the sector is expected to continue to grow
- Figure: Investment in renewable energy increased from $22 billion to $155
billion between 2002 and 2008
- Figure: In 2008, China commanded the greatest level of renewable installed
capacity globally (inclusive of small hydro), followed by the US
- Figure: Three of the top five cleantech IPOs of 2009 took place in China
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