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市場調查報告書
英國抵押貸款市場預測：2009第3季
UK Mortgage Market Outlook: Q3 2009
| 出版商 |
Datamonitor |
| 出版日期 |
2009年12月 |
商品編碼 |
107540 |
| 內容資訊 |
英文 24 pages |
| 價格 |
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英國抵押貸款市場預測：2009第3季 是由出版商Datamonitor在2009年12月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含24 pages 價格從美金2795起跳。
英國現在正處於數十年來最低迷的不景氣狀態中。同時住宅貸款造成消費需求下降，以及嚴格的授信限制，使2009年總貸款額大幅下滑。
本報告除了分析英國抵押貸款市場的現況，也提供預測今後數年的調查資料，以下記的概要為您介紹。
Datamonitor的看法
分析
- 2009年第3季的總貸款額相較於前年同期有大幅度的下滑
- 英國2009年第3季總貸款額，比起2008年第3季減少36%，為390億英鎊
- 2009年の全年總貸款額預測比2007年減少61%
- 每月的貸款總額在2009年一直保持穩定的水準
- 抵押市場仍繼續受到低金利影響
- 2009年下半期房價開始復甦
- 滯付及回收汽車增加較預期緩慢
- 抵押貸款供應依然緊張，但出現了緩解跡象
- 股價淨值比（PBR）指明了2011年以後應廣泛的削減開支
- 總貸款額在今後數年，雖無法驚人成長，但有可能穩定地回復
- 廣範圍的經濟情勢對2010年以後的抵押貸款市場帶來希望與不安
- 預測英國的總貸款額在2013年時將上升到2350億英鎊
- 考量市場上矛盾的兩個因素後做出的兩種預測
- 發展數字將直接影響抵押貸款市場的走向
- 金融服務機構將開始再次審視抵押貸款市場
- 收入自我認證抵押貸款供給元的最終貸款機關從市場退出
附錄
- 補助資料
- 定義
- 調查方法
- 預測方法
- 關聯文獻
- 詢問分析師
- Datamonitor諮詢
- 免責聲明
圖表
Abstract
Introduction
The UK is still officially in recession, the deepest downturn in decades. The
resulting fall in consumer demand for mortgages has combined with a severe
restriction in the availability of credit to cause a massive downturn in gross
lending in 2009. This brief offers detailed analysis of the market and how it
is expected to develop over the next few years.
Scope of this research
- Provides an evaluation of the market and industry trends up to Q3 2008.
- Examines the impact of factors such as the base rate, arrears and
repossessions and the pre-budget report on the market.
- Sets out Datamonitor' s forecasts for gross lending covering the period
2010-2013 under three different scenarios.
Research and analysis highlights
UK gross lending fell to £39 billion in Q3 2009, a 36% decline on the
same period in 2008.
Remortgaging has been stagnant throughout 2009, and will only recover once the
base rate starts to rise.
The supply of mortgage credit, critical to the effective functioning of the
market, is slowly starting to increase, following a prolonged period of
contraction.
Key reasons to purchase this research
- Understand what issues have driven market performance in Q3 2008.
- View details of Datamonitor' s forecasts for the period up to 2013 to help
plan your future strategies.
- Review the impact of proposed FSA regulations affecting the mortgage
market.
Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW
ANALYSIS
- Gross lending in Q3 2009 was well down on the same period in 2008, itself
a quiet year
- UK gross lending fell by 36% in Q3 2009 to £39 billion, compared
to Q3 2008
- Gross lending for the whole of 2009 is forecast to be 61% lower than the
total for 2007
- Monthly gross advances have remained at a steady level for the duration
of 2009
- The market for remortgaging continues to be affected by the low base rate
- House prices have staged a recovery in the second half of 2009
- Arrears and repossessions continue to rise more slowly than anticipated
- The supply of mortgage credit remains under pressure, but is starting to
ease
- The PBR points the way to widespread spending cuts in 2011 and beyond
- Gross lending is likely to stage a steady rather than spectacular recovery
over the next few years
- The wider economic situation provides both hope and concern for the
mortgage market in 2010 and beyond
- Datamonitor predicts that gross lending in the UK will rise to
£235 billion in 2013
- Datamonitor has produced two alternative forecasts in recognition of the
contradictory factors at work in the market
- A number of external developments will have direct consequences for the
mortgage market
- The Financial Services Authority sets out its Mortgage Market Review
- The last lenders offering self-certification mortgages have pulled out
of the market
APPENDIX
- Supplementary data
- Definitions
- Bank of England base rate
- CAGR
- Gross advances
- Remortgaging
- RMBS
- Self-certification mortgage
- Methodology
- Forecasting methodology
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
TABLES
- Table: Forecast gross advances under the Datamonitor view, 2009 - 2013
- Table: Forecast gross advances under the optimistic view, 2009 - 2013
- Table: Forecast gross advances under the pessimistic view, 2009 - 2013
- Table: UK gross mortgage lending in third quarter, 2005 - 2009
- Table: UK annual gross mortgage approvals, 2003 - 2009
- Table: UK gross monthly approvals, 2006 - 2009
- Table: Monthly and annual changes in UK house prices, 2007 - 2009
- Table: UK gross approvals by type, 2007 - 2009
- Table: Quarterly changes in secured credit availability and credit scoring
criteria, 2007 - 2009
FIGURES
- Figure: Gross lending in Q3 2009 was very subdued compared to the same
period in recent years
- Figure: Annual gross lending figures highlight the scale of the decline
since 2007
- Figure: Monthly gross advances bottomed out in November 2008 and has held
steady ever since
- Figure: Approvals for remortgages have stagnated in 2009, but have
partially recovered for purchases
- Figure: House prices have been rising since the spring
- Figure: Mortgage credit availability has continued to tighten
- Figure: In the view of Datamonitor, gross lending will rise to £247
billion in 2013
- Figure: In the optimistic scenario, gross lending will reach £307
billion in 2013
- Figure: The pessimistic forecast sees gross lending stagnating in 2010 and
2011
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