英國的個人借貸市場：2009年

英國的個人借貸市場：2009年 是由出版商Datamonitor在2009年10月所出版的。 這份英文市場調查報告書包含107 pages 價格從美金4495起跳。

簡介

英國的融資業界受到不景氣影響，消費者信用市場的狀況以和數年前大不相同。然而，在緩慢卻穩定的復甦徵兆出現的情況中，融資業者應掌握機會迅速採取行動。

本報告書內容包括：英國之個人無擔保借貸、信用卡、預借現金、汽車貸款、商業貸款等各種市場的調查分析、根據消費者信用市場的3個情境進行預測、彙整主要企業的市場佔有率和競爭狀況，內容綱要摘記如下：

第1章 概要

• 發展要素
• 摘要

第2章 英國的消費者信用市場(2008年)與今後的展望

• 2008年的消費者信用市場為惡化
• 信用危機與不景氣妨礙了消費者信用市場的功能
• 2008年的總貸款額幾乎為信用商品且稍有減少
• 個人借貸在過去5年內強化了市場佔有率
• 消費者信用市場的衰退情況於2009年第1季稍有減緩
• 儘管有Bank of England的根本解決對策，貸方、借方皆迴避信用商品
• Datamonitor預測，至2011年恢復前的2009年、2010年之間，此狀態將會持續
• 政府將導入消費者信用市場的新法規政策

第3章 英國個人借貸市場的競爭狀況

• 2008年個人無擔保借貸的貸款等級低落
• 競爭壓力將繼續維持低等級
• 貸方的課題為不良債權與PPI的新規定
• 現在的市況亦將對其他市場參加者造成影響

第4章 英國個人借貸市場的回收債權管理

• 個人借貸市場將可對應上升中的損害風險
• 現況下的優先課題為預防不良債權重於事後處理
• 應盡可能及早確認債務不履行的認定與對策

第5章 國外個人借貸之創新

• 英國的個人借貸市場在此1年間受到深刻影響
• 商品設計：亦有以不動產以外的資產為擔保給予貸款的國外銀行
• 顧客區隔：學生、低所得者、「綠色」貸款
• 獎勵：提供獎勵
• 銷售：利用多種管道申請貸款
• 新技術：Twitter
• 英國的無擔保借貸市場的將來

第6章 英國的個人借貸市場的品牌價值

• 不景氣導致廣告費刪減
• 儘管前景不看好，創新的顧客鎖定大有斬獲

附錄

目錄

Abstract

Introduction

The recession in the UK has impacted lending considerably and the consumer credit landscape is now very different to what it was a year ago. However, with change comes opportunity, and with signs of a slow but steady recovery on the horizon, lenders will need to move quickly to take advantage of the improving consumer sentiment in the economy.

Scope of this research

• Covers unsecured personal loans, credit cards, overdrafts, motor finance and retail finance in the UK with the main focus on unsecured personal loans.
• Provides forecasts under 3 different scenarios for the consumer credit market as a whole as well as for individual product lines.
• Includes market share data for 2008 for major personal loan providers and examines the latest competitor developments shaping the market.
• Provides discussion and analysis of several key issues facing UK consumer credit lenders.

Research and analysis highlights

The UK personal lending market has suffered considerably over the past year. Lending has declined across all product lines, and many lenders have left the market entirely. While some signs of recovery are on the horizon, the supply of credit is still restricted, and perhaps more importantly, consumers are reducing borrowing and debt obligations.

Datamonitor expects conditions to remain tough throughout 2009 and 2010 before improving in 2011. Datamonitor' s expectation is of an overall contraction of around 12% in the market from £192.9 billion to £170 billion between 2008 and 2009.

The competitive landscape has also shrunk considerably. In June 2008, there were 46 lenders offering unsecured personal loans, down from 58 in June 2007, however, by June 2009 this number had dropped further to just 37.

Key reasons to purchase this research

• Gain access to the latest market sizing and forecasting data for the UK consumer credit market to place your performance in context to the market' s.
• Gain insight into how your competitors are responding to the various issues facing the unsecured lending sector.
• Receive updated market share data to tell you how your company compares to your closest rivals.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW

• Catalyst
• Summary

THE UK CONSUMER CREDIT MARKET IN 2008 AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

• The consumer credit market deteriorated over 2008
  • The consumer credit market performed poorly in 2008, but although lending was weakened considerably, balances outstanding began to fall
  • Savings and investments declined in 2008 as consumers dip into their balances to pay off debt

• The credit crunch and recession continue to impede the functioning of the consumer credit market
  • Base rate cuts during 2008 have failed to help Britain climb out of recession
  • Lenders have become more conservative in order to cope with the economic downturn
  • Despite attempts to cut their spending, many consumers need to keep borrowing

• Most credit products saw modest falls in gross lending during 2008
  • Consumers continue to fund short-term borrowing needs with their credit cards
  • Unsecured personal loans declined dramatically over 2008
  • Gross advances on overdrafts have stayed relatively stable over 2008
  • The last quarter of 2008 saw a sharp decline in point of sale retail finance
  • Point of sale motor finance fell dramatically in the second half of 2008

• Personal loans have strengthened their market share over the past five years
• The reduction in consumer credit slowed in the first quarter of 2009
  • The consumer credit market declined for the fifth consecutive period in Q1 2009
  • The rate of decline seen across unsecured personal loans and motor finance slowed in Q1 2009

• Despite drastic moves by the Bank of England, lenders and borrowers are shying away from credit products
• The Bank of England has moved towards a policy of quantitative easing
  • Lenders continue to pursue conservative strategies as the prevailing economic conditions remain difficult
  • Consumers are becoming more aware of the need to organize their finances

• Datamonitor expects conditions to remain tough during 2009 and 2010 before improving in 2011
  • Datamonitor' s forecasting model explained
  • Further falls in GDP and soaring unemployment show that the UK economy remains in turmoil
  • Under the Datamonitor scenario, all credit products will have a difficult 2009
  • Datamonitor has also considered two additional scenarios

• The government is introducing new measures to regulate the consumer credit market
  • The government is looking to prevent the unsolicited raising of credit card limits
  • The OFT is conducting a review on the fairness of competition in the consumer credit market
  • Consumers are turning to loan sharks in desperation as the credit crunch continues to bite

COMPETITIVE DYNAMICS IN THE UK PERSONAL LENDING MARKET

• Unsecured personal lending levels contracted in 2008 as the market remained tough
  • The unsecured personal lending market had five larger players and a fringe of smaller players in 2008
  • Lloyds Banking Group was the market leader in terms of balances outstanding

• Competitive pressures remain low as loan providers direct their focus internally
  • The number of unsecured personal lenders has declined further over the last year
  • Financial institutions are adopting a prudent approach to their lending policy
  • For the largest lenders in particular, cross-selling to existing customers is a favored practice, used in order to avoid taking on more risk
  • The average interest rate for a £5,000 loan has increased despite the plummeting base rates
  • Advertising expenditure has also dropped as a result of the credit crunch
  • Innovation in the UK personal lending market remains fairly minimal

• High levels of bad debt and the new PPI ruling are hurdles that lenders need to overcome
  • Bad debt levels remain high but are now at a manageable level
  • The ban on the selling of single premium PPI will lead to lenders finding other ways to recoup their outlay

• The current market conditions are impacting on the dynamics of other players in the market
  • Aggregators have been an important player in the market but they are losing their influence under current market conditions
  • The payday loan industry has taken advantage of the current market conditions

COLLECTIONS AND DEBT MANAGEMENT IN UK PERSONAL LENDING

• The personal loan market is bracing itself for rising impairments
  • Personal loan balances have grown partially due to higher default rates
  • Arrears and delinquency rates will continue to rise during the recession
  • Impairment provisions will continue to grow as banks adapt to the worsening economic climate
  • Growing unemployment will result in a larger non-standard population adversely affecting impairments

• Prevention of bad debts is better than the cure in the current climate
  • Most banks have similar methods for debt recovery and collection
  • Determining customer intentions is crucial for future loan portfolio performance
  • Stringent lending policies are often the best way to minimize potential defaults
  • Financial advice could be one way to prevent borrowers from falling into delinquency

• A delinquency needs to be identified and resolved as soon as possible
  • Quick identification of arrears and delinquency is the most important aspect of debt management
  • Customer segmentation is vitally important in order to maximize debt recovery
  • There are three main solutions for borrowers who fall into repayment difficulties
  • Third party debt collection agencies are used once all other options are exhausted

PERSONAL LENDING INNOVATIONS FROM ABROAD

• The UK personal loans market has been severely affected over the last 12 months
  • Difficult conditions persist in the consumer credit market
  • Restrictions are being introduced on the sale of Payment Protection Insurance
  • The majority of loans are now used for debt consolidation
  • Banks must respond to these conditions through innovation and differentiation

• Product design: some overseas banks offer loans secured against non-property assets
  • Banks in Asia offer debt secured against gold, equities and other assets
  • The Retail Banking team view

• Customer segmentation: providers are increasingly targeting specific segments such as students, lower income consumers and those seeking ‘green' loans
  • National Australia Bank offers lower income consumers access to low cost micro-loans
  • The Retail Banking team view
  • Danske Bank of Denmark offers low cost education loans to students with children
  • The Retail Banking team view
  • Several banks offer low-cost unsecured loans for environmental purposes
  • The Retail Banking team view

• Incentives: rewards can be used to encourage good behavior
  • In Malaysia, EON Bank offers cashback to reward prompt repayments
  • The Retail Banking team view

• Distribution: foreign banks make greater use of alternative channels for loan applications
  • Loan application via ATMs is commonplace in many other countries
  • The Retail Banking team view

• New technology: Twitter emerges as the next big communications medium for financial services companies
  • Banks in the US and Australia experiment with ways to exploit the new medium
  • The Retail Banking team view
  • Consumers overseas can request up-to-date loan information via mobile banking
  • The Retail Banking team view

• The Datamonitor view of the future of the UK unsecured loans market
  • Restrictions on the sale of PPI will lead to costlier loans
  • Loans will become more flexible in response to changing circumstances
  • Greater emphasis will be placed on online distribution

BRAND VALUES IN UK PERSONAL LENDING

• The downturn has placed an emphasis on reducing advertising expenditure
  • The credit crunch has severely affected the personal loan market
  • Global brand strengths have fallen significantly in light of the worsening financial situation
  • A combination of changing market dynamics and lower liquidity levels have forced personal loan advertising expenditure downwards
  • Lenders have been more affected in the secured market.

• Innovative customer targeting will reap significant rewards despite the bleak outlook
  • To drive brand values at minimal costs banks need to appeal to consumers' recessionary mindsets
  • Targeting and promoting self-service products will appeal to the Financial Intelligence Complexity
  • Effective advertising should focus on safety and functionality to lessen consumer worries
  • Services and products need to satisfy the Authenticity Megatrend
  • Adopting a more friendly advisory and assistance based approach to customers develops better customer relationships
  • A more personalized approach to product offerings is a win-win for banks

APPENDIX

• Supplementary data
  • UK Consumer Credit Market in 2008 and Future Outlook
  • Competitive Dynamics in the UK Personal Loan Market 2009
  • Collections and Debt Management in UK Personal Lending
  • Brand Values in UK Personal Lending

• Definitions
  • General definitions
  • Definitions of point of sale motor and retail finance products

• Methodology
• Forecasting methodology
  • Choice of economic variables
  • Model outputs
  • Bespoke scenario based forecasting

• Further reading
• Ask the analyst
• Datamonitor consulting
• Disclaimer

TABLES

• Table: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances outstanding in the UK, Q4 2006 - Q4 2008
• Table: Retail savings and investments in the UK, 2004 - 08, £m
• Table: Net inflows of retail savings and investments, 2004 - Q3 2008
• Table: UK consumer credit gross advances by product, Q4 2006 - Q4 2008 (£m)
• Table: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by product line, 2004 - 08
• Table: Quarterly total consumer credit gross advances and balances outstanding in the UK, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009
• Table: UK consumer credit gross advances by product, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009 (£m)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13: Datamonitor scenario
• Table: Updated Datamonitor view consumer credit forecast by product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated pessimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated optimistic consumer credit forecast by product line, 2008 - 13 (£ billion)
• Table: Unsecured personal lenders in the UK, Moneyfacts June 2009
• Table: Loan impairment provisions for the main high street banks, 2005 - 07
• Table: The top 10 global brand values, 2008
• Table: The top 10 personal loan advertisers, 2007 - 08
• Table: UK consumer credit balances outstanding by product, Q1 2007 to Q1 2009 (£m)
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13: pessimistic scenario
• Table: Datamonitor' s updated macroeconomic variables for 2008 - 13: optimistic scenario
• Table: Advertising spend for major providers, 2007 - 08
• Table: Comparison of monthly interest rates on a £5,000 loan compared with the Bank of England base rate
• Table: Write-offs on consumer lending from UK banks and building societies
• Table: Average unsecured personal lending gross advances per person (over 18)
• Table: Extent to which consumers trust financial services companies
• Table: Loan provisions as a percentage of total lending, 2005 - 07
• Table: The non-standard population, 2004 - 08
• Table: UK non-standard population forecast under the Datamonitor view, 2008 - 13f
• Table: Total UK advertising expenditure by product line, 2004 - 08
• Table: Total UK advertising expenditure in 2008, H1 2008 - H2 2008

FIGURES

• Figure: Total consumer gross lending slumped over 2008 and the rate of growth in balances outstanding started to decline in Q4 2008
• Figure: Savings and investments in the UK fell in 2008
• Figure: UK investors have pruned back their holdings in bonds, shares and mutual funds
• Figure: There have been declines for most products, although overdrafts saw relatively flat year-on-year growth throughout 2008
• Figure: Unsecured personal loans have continued to increase their market share of balances over the past five years
• Figure: Both gross advances and balances outstanding continued to decline on a year-on-year basis
• Figure: All products experienced negative year-on-year growth in Q1 2009
• Figure: The rate of interest paid for a loan of £5,000 grew by 44% over two years
• Figure: The majority of respondents said they plan to save more in the future
• Figure: The newly formed Lloyds Banking Group had a market leading share of the gross advances in 2008
• Figure: Lloyds Banking Group has the largest share of balances outstanding
• Figure: Personal lending interest rates have increased significantly since June 2008 despite sharp cuts in the Bank of England' s base rate
• Figure: Across most banking groups, advertising expenditure shrank between 2007 and 2008
• Figure: A fall in the level of write-offs in other unsecured lending counteracted the increase in write-offs for credit cards and secured loans
• Figure: Despite strong performance in the credit card market, total unsecured lending dropped continuously between 2004 and 2008
• Figure: Moneysupermarket.com lists all loans providers, but it does not link to products where the provider has not paid a fee
• Figure: Online price comparison sites are more trusted than building societies and banks
• Figure: The Wonga website emphasizes the convenience of the product
• Figure: Unsecured personal loan advances have been falling while balances outstanding have grown, January 2007 - September 2008
• Figure: Only a few lenders increased their proportion of total loan provisions for impairments, 2005 - 07
• Figure: 2008 witnessed a massive growth in the number of non-standard individuals, 2004 - 08
• Figure: Under the Datamonitor view the non-standard population will increase significantly over the next five years, 2008 - 13f
• Figure: Every bank aims to resolve a bad debt as quickly and effectively as possible, 2009
• Figure: Lloyds TSB' s budget calculator aggregates all outgoings thus providing a realistic budget representation for any consumer, 2009
• Figure: ICICI Bank in India offers a ‘Loan Against Securities'
• Figure: Garanti Bank can grant loans through its ATMs
• Figure: Bank of America is using Twitter to deal with customer enquiries
• Figure: Total financial services advertising expenditure fell by 15.8% in 2008, 2004 - 08
• Figure: Total advertising dropped by 22.4% throughout the second half of 2008
• Figure: Recessionary consumers' behavior is affected by a number of basic drivers and inhibitors
• Figure: Bank of Scotland' s website provide a comprehensive source of information for borrowers, 2009
• Figure: Online price comparison sites and banks are the most trusted financial institutions, 2008
• Figure: First Direct' s ‘Enthuse' service explains products pure and simple, 2009
• Figure: Virgin Money' s homepage illustrates how the bank can help simplify financial services, 2009
• Figure: Point of sale product aggregations used within this briefing

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