美國農作物市場：5年間預測與分析 是由出版商Doane Advisory Service在2012年02月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含38 Pages 價格從美金4000起跳。
本研究報告針對美國農作物市場各部門展望進行分析，內容摘記如下
- 實施概要
- 玉米部門前景
- 大豆部門前景
- 小麥部門前景
- 綿花部門前景
- 農場所得前景
Abstract
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Considering all the challenges the crops faced in 2009, production levels were
very high. For the most part, farmers cut back on fertilizer application
rates, planted the spring crops late, worried about a lack of heat units over
the summer and faced some real challenges at harvest, but yields of corn,
soybeans, and spring wheat all came in record high levels. With the big crops
in the U.S. and pretty good crops in the rest of the world, the concerns about
food shortages that erupted in early 2008 have largely abated. However, there
is a lot of uncertainty about what will happen in 2010.
Uncertainty about crop acreage is always high at this time of year, but the
big drop in winter wheat acreage for 2010 has provided a whole new level of
ambiguity. Farmers planted 37.1 million acres to winter wheat this past fall,
down from 43.3 million a year earlier. So where does this land go? Clearly,
there is a real possibility that we will see acreage increases for most spring
planted crops, and this possibility has caused futures prices for most crops
to decline over the last few weeks. The fact that the size of the Conservation
Reserve Program (CRP) is down more than 2.6 million acres compared to last
year at this time provides fuel to the concerns that we will see big acreage
increases for 2010.
World grain stocks generally peaked around 2000 then began a steep decline,
but there has been a pretty dramatic rebound in stocks recently, especially
for wheat. The world wheat stock to use ratio was near 36 percent at the
beginning of the decade, but that was reduced to less than 20 percent at the
end of 2007/08. The tight stocks led to high prices, inducing farmers to boost
acreage. Couple that with above trend yields in both 2008 and 2009, and world
wheat stocks have come roaring back. USDA predicts that the world wheat stocks
to use ratio will be back up above the 30 percent mark at the end of the
2009/10 crop year. World stocks of rice and corn have bounced higher over the
last few years, but stocks remain tight and weather problems could bring back
concerns about shortages pretty quickly.
Net cash farm income declined sharply in 2009 as crop prices dropped from the
record highs recorded in 2008. Livestock producers were hardest hit with low
output prices and relatively high feed costs squeezing profits. Crop cash
receipts were also down last year, but a large part of the decline in receipts
was offset by falling input costs. Current prices for nitrogen fertilizers are
about half what they were in the summer of 2008 and phosphate prices have
declined even more. However, prices for fuel, fertilizers and seeds all appear
to be on the rise for the 2010-crop, and major crop prices are down at least
compared to last year at this time. If these trends continue the income
outlook for crop producers could stay tight even as profits for livestock
producers improve and total net cash farm income edges up.
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Corn Sector Outlook
- Soybean Sector Outlook
- Wheat Sector Outlook
- Cotton Sector Outlook
- Farm Income Outlook
