Abstract
Topics covered include:
- Telecommunications Industry Update
- Communications Equipment Trends
- Trends in Back-up Power
- Base Station Trends
- Technology Trends
- Trends in Power Systems
- Alternative Energy
- New Business Models
- Developments in Asia
- Rectifier and Power System Forecasts
Summary
Depending on what you read, the overall telecommunications market is either on
solid ground or has a tough road ahead. Both are probably true, since the
world will not shut down even under the worst economic conditions. Opinions
differ as to where, if any, growth will take place. For makers of
communications power systems, the questions are spread over a number of
different segments, from customer premises equipment, to wireless, to central
offices, to emerging data communications technologies.
Regional economic impacts will play a role, as well. The Economist' s yearly
industry assessment for telecoms predicts that emerging economies will still
invest heavily in network infrastructure, while recession-hit economies will
delay upgrades. Falling revenue will hit the big telecom companies in
slower-growth economies, while cash-rich telecom groups in emerging markets
will be "increasingly well-placed to expand into Europe or the US."
On the optimistic side, Infonetics projects a 2% downturn in worldwide carrier
capital expenditures in 2009, followed by a flat 2010 and a slow return to
growth in 2011. More pessimistically, UBS thinks capital expenditures could
drop 10% to 20% in 2009. Most service providers have clean balance sheets, so
they are entering the global crisis on solid financial ground. They went
through a correction when the Internet/telecom bubble burst several years ago,
although the current recession could further challenge them. AT&T, the largest
US telecom services provider, announced in December, 2008, that it would cut
12,000 jobs and consider reducing the amount it spends on network upgrades in
2009. North American carriers may slice spending on landline and TV-related
networks by 34%, to $23 billion. Ovum expects major carriers' spending on
wireless networks to remain flat.
The long-term outlook for wireless applications is actually quite good.
Although general spending will go down in 2009, when they do make purchases,
large enterprises will spend more on wireless infrastructure than on wired,
according to Vanson Bourne. In Europe, 54% of IT directors had spent a greater
portion of their budget on wireless rather than wired equipment. Part of the
reason is that the actual cost of wireless network is between one-fifth to
one-tenth the cost of installing a wired network.
Insight Research predicts that wireless revenues will jump from 60% of all
telecommunications services in 2008 to 72% in 2013, which amounts to a 14.4%
compound annual growth rate. The Asia-Pacific region will experience the
highest growth rate in the next five years, at nearly 16%, led by China and
India. The telecom sector in Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 12%,
fueled by emerging economies and the expansion of the middle class. Insight
Research expects global telecommunications revenue to increase from roughly
$1.7 trillion in 2008 to more than $2.7 trillion in 2013.
It is always important to remember that declining sales do not mean no sales
at all. The past few years, in some ways, was the anomaly and did not
represent a "normal" business climate for communications power systems. Like
the housing market, communications unit sales and revenue have to go through a
correction that will simply reduce the size of the market to more normal
levels. The wireless sector, in particular, should continue to provide
opportunities, even if somewhat reduced from previous years.
Table of Contents
- Introduction 4
- Telecommunications Industry Update 5
- Business and Economic Implications 5
- Communications Equipment Trends 6
- Third Generation (3G), Fourth Generation (4G) and Long-Term
- Evolution (LTE) 8
- Trends in Back-up Power 11
- Alternative Energy Storage Solutions 12
- Base Station Trends 14
- Technology Trends 15
- Femtocells 15
- Fiberoptics 17
- Broadband-over-Powerlines (BPL) 18
- IP Technologies 20
- WiMAX 22
- CATV 23
- AdvancedTCA 24
- Summary 25
- Trends in Power Systems 28
- Outside Plant 31
- Alternative Energy 31
- Energy Efficiency 34
- New Business Models 35
- Developments in Asia 36
- Worldwide Forecasts 38
- Appendix: Standards and Regulatory Market Drivers 42
Tables
- Table 1a - Applications & Technologies, Implications for Power Systems 27
- Table 1b - Applications & Technologies, Implications for Power Systems
(continued) 28
- Table 2 - Worldwide Telecom Rectifier Market (millions of units) 39
- Table 3 - Worldwide Telecom Power System Market (millions of units 40
- Appendix - Standards and Regulatory Market Drivers 42
Figure
- Figure 1 - Worldwide Communications Power Supply Market, by Application
(Compound Annual Growth Rates) 40
