烏克蘭鐵路用機械市場 是由出版商Concorde Capital在2008年01月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含Pages: 59 價格從美金3000起跳。
Abstract
Mid-term outlook: High demand & low competition
The five domestic railcar producers continued to benefit from excess demand in
the insulated CIS market, posting 48% yoy higher aggregated sales in 9M07.
Demand is being stimulated by a rise in freight transportation (up 4-8% CAGR
over the last three years), high replacement needs, and the emergence of new
financing channels such as leasing. We estimate demand for railcars will
remain robust until 2011 and forecast significant increase in the aggregated
revenues of the five Ukrainian railcar producers over 2007-2010.
Long-term outlook: Diversification is an issue
Having a broad product mix will gain additional importance in 3-4 years when
new railcar production capacities come on-stream in the CIS. Mariupol Heavy
Machinery is best protected from volatility in demand for railcars, while the
revenues of pure wagon producer Dniprovahonmash are likely to decline after
2010.
Corporate activity will keep the sector hot
We expect to see share offerings by Ukrainian railcar producers in the next
12-18 months. All five stocks in our coverage are to be watched closely.
Consolidation will become more visible, both domestically and cross-border.
Ukrainian wagon manufacturers' growing importance on the CIS market makes them
attractive takeover targets for Russian players - the main candidates are
Azovmash (Azovzahalmash and Mariupol Heavy Machinery) and Dniprovahonmash.
High margins deserve premium valuations
After triple digit performance in 2007, Ukrainian railcar makers trade close
to their emerging market peers at around 1.2x EV/Sales ' 07. With low
price-elasticity of CIS demand for railcars in the midterm, Ukrainian
producers will keep their EBITDA margins 1.2-1.4x above the EM peer average,
justifying premium valuations by EV/Sales.
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Investment Thesis
Investment summary
Investment opportunities
Stock Market Monitor
Ready for the third
wave
2. Railcar market overview
Railcar demand snapshot
PICKING UP STEAM, GROWTH PROJECTED AT 10% CAGR THROUGH 2012
CIS DEMAND
SPLIT
View on demand: 3x3
Three orders drivers
Three freight
railcar consumers
Three main countries
RUSSIA
UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
Implications of CIS market insulation
Wagon producers'
pricing power
Assembly Parts: Deficit of casting
WHERE HAS ALL THE
CASTING GONE?
OTHER INPUTS
Competition and supply
Main market
players
Competitive advantages
SPECIALIZATION
QUALITY
State
protection of Russian producers
3. Consolidation in the railway
industry
Corporate evolution
All for IPO, Few for takeover
AWASH
WITH TALK OF IPOs
ACQUISITIONS IN THE OFFING?
Profitability
analysis
4. Company Profiles
4.1 Azovzahalmash
Key
forecasts
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary
4.2 Mariupol Heavy Machinery
Key forecasts
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate
governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary
AZGM & MZVM: Two companies in one
plant
Shareholder structure of Azovmash
Reconsolidation of
Azovmash?
AZGM vs MZVM: What is the difference?
Production
specialization: AZGM focuses on railcars
Differences in ownership
structure: AZGM looks like a favorite
4.3 Stakhaniv Wagon
Investment case
Business overview
Market information
Stock
ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market
multiples
Key ratios
The fastest growing Ukrainian wagon producer
Capital increases
CapEx program to support production growth
Relaunching production of metal construction
Casting used to limit
growth
Part of KRAZ holding?
Key forecasts
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary
4.4 Kryukiv Wagon
Investment case
Business
overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate
governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key ratios
Corporate changes expected
Product mix
Key forecasts
DCF
Valuation
Valuation summary
4.5 Dniprovahonmash
Investment
case
Business overview
Market information
Stock ownership
Corporate governance
Share price performance
Market multiples
Key
ratios
New owner, new financial outlook
Product mix
Key
forecasts
DCF Valuation
Valuation summary
5. Appendices
Appendix A: Comparative valuation
Appendix B: Key peer financials
Appendix C: Railcar specifications and functions
6. Disclosures
7. Investment Ratings
CHARTS
Stocks Performance,
12M
Sector Performance, 12M
Indices Performance, 12M
Upside, %
Azovzahalmash. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD
mln
Dniprovahonmash. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD
mln
Stakhaniv Wagon. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD
mln
Kryukiv Wagon. Stock performance. Spread, %. Trading volumes, USD
mln
Railcar producers' performance and trading volumes, 2007
Average
multiples for railcar producers, 2008E
Demand for freight railcars, ths
units
Freight wagons' demand split, ths units, 2007-2015
Cargo
transportation breakdown, mln mt 2006, %
Growth in freight turnover and
GDP
Percentage of railcar fleet past service life
Russian leasing
market for rolling stock, USD bln
Consumers' activity in cargo wagons
purchase in CIS
Cargo carried by rail in Ukraine and Russia in 2006
FSU freight railcar split, 2006
Russian freight railcar fleet evolution
forecast, ths units
Ukrainian freight railcar fleet evolution forecast,
ths units
Kazakhstan freight railcars fleet evolution forecast, ths
units
Average tank car wagon, casting and rolled steel price growth, YTD
2007 as of Nov.1
Ukrainian railway producers: market shares in CIS
Railcar output by Ukrainian and Russian producers, ths units
Azovzahalmash
sales split, USD mln
Azovzahalmash. Profitability forecasts
Azovzahalmash. Valuation results, USD per share
Mariupol Heavy Machinery
sales breakdown, USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery. Profitability
forecasts
Mariupol Heavy Machinery valuation results, USD per share
Ownership structure of Azovmash-related companies
Sales split of AZGM and
MZVM, USD ths
Ukrainian railcar producers' sales growth yoy
Stakhaniv
Wagon. Sales breakdown, USD mln
Stakhaniv Wagon. Profitability
forecasts
Stakhaniv Wagon. Valuation results, USD per share
Kryukiv
Wagon. Shareholders structure, 2006
Kryukiv Wagon. Sales split, 2006
Kryukiv Wagon. Sales breakdown, USD mln
Kryukiv Wagon. Profitability
forecasts
Kryukiv Wagon. Valuation results, USD per share
Dniprovahonmash. Sales, EBITDA and net income, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash.
Sales destination
Dniprovahonmash. Sales forecasts, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash. Profitability forecasts
Dniprovahonmash. Valuation
results, USD per share
TABLES
Key ratios
Key
financials, 9M07, USD mln
State railway programs
Main CIS casting
producers
CIS wagon producer profiles
CIS railcar producers capacity
outlook, ths units
Ownership of Ukrainian railcar producers
Ukrainian
railcar producers financials
Ukrainian railcar producers' expenses, common
size
Azovzahalmash. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Azovzahalmash. DCF Sensitivity analysis
Azovzahalmash. Income Statement
Summary, USD mln
Azovzahalmash. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Mariupol
Heavy Machinery. DCF sensitivity analysis
Mariupol Heavy Machinery Income
Statement Summary, USD mln
Mariupol Heavy Machinery Balance Sheet Summary,
USD mln
Forecast revisions for Stakhaniv Wagon
Stakhaniv Wagon DCF
output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Stakhaniv Wagon DCF Sensitivity
analysis
Stakhaniv Wagon. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Stakhaniv
Wagon. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Kryukiv Wagon' s production line
Kryukiv Wagon. DCF output, UAH mln, as of January 28
Kryukiv Wagon. DCF
Sensitivity analysis
Kryukiv Wagon. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Kryukiv Wagon. Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash. DCF output,
UAH mln, as of January 28
Dniprovahonmash. DCF Sensitivity analysis
Dniprovahonmash. Income Statement Summary, USD mln
Dniprovahonmash.
Balance Sheet Summary, USD mln
Comparative valuation
Key peer
financials
