烏克蘭電力工學產業 是由出版商Concorde Capital在2007年10月所出版的。
這份英文市場調查報告書包含Pages: 62 價格從美金3000起跳。
Abstract
During Soviet times, the Ukrainian and Russian power engineering sectors were
responsible for supplying fuel and energy equipment to the entire Former
Soviet Union (FSU). The seven companies we include in our report produce
equipment for every step of the energy production and distribution chain.
While power engineering companies were originally designed to satisfy the
needs of the FSU, sales are now diversified into other emerging markets. (Asia
and Latin America)
Growing domestic and Russian orders in the pipeline
With the recent adoption of long-term investment programs by major energy
market players in Ukraine and Russia, totaling over USD 650 bln, we expect
demand for energy equipment in these markets to triple in the next two-four
years. With the insufficient Russian capacity to meet domestic energy
infrastructure needs, Ukrainian power engineering companies have an
opportunity to fully load capacity and invest in expansion.
Market diversification to sustain growth
Ukrainian producers have solidified positions in Asian and Latin American
markets, which now account for 15-30% of some companies' sales. The rapid
growth of these markets has outpaced the capacity increases of international
power engineering companies. In the last five years, the top seven global
players ceded 10% of their combined market share to emerging market producers.
We expect Ukrainian companies to continue snapping up new orders there in the
mid-term.
Asset consolidation would be a trigger
The major private shareholder, Konstantin Grigorishyn, in the three largest
listed companies in the sector has been accumulating shares since the
mid-1990s. Grigorishyn has designs for creating a Ukrainian power engineering
holding (following privatization of the remaining state-controlled sector
giants), Turboatom and Zaporizhtransformator to benefit from a scale
effect.
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Investment case
Mid caps:
Small
caps:
2. Stock Market Monitor
3. Introduction
4.
Power engineering: Broad-based demand
Leaders' share of the global market
is on the decline
Energy consumption favors Ukrainian equipment
producers
Ukraine: Newly adopted CapEx programs will boost domestic
demand
Russian energy sector raises orders
5. Russian energy
companies need Ukraine
Acquisition of Ukrainian competitors
6.
Power engineering holding?
Alternatives to a holding
7. MID CAPS
- companies profiles
7.1 Zaporizhtransformator
INVESTMENT
CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIO - table
Transformer Output, units - chart
Demand
Global transformer market set
to balloon
Ukraine: 3x increase in demand expected
Competition
Capacity and CapEx
Sales and order book
2007 order book
Financial
notes
Low liquidity...
Another alternative: Transformer holding
Valuation
DCF
Peer valuation
Valuation summary
7.2 Sumy
Frunze
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET
INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES -
table
KEY RATIO - table
Pumps Output, units - chart
Demand
Sales and market breakdown
Key markets
Risks related to Iran' s nuclear
program
Competition
Sales and order book
Sales growth by type of
products
Enough capacity to meet demand
2007 order book
Getting
into the state' s zirconium pipe business?
Financial notes
Valuation
DCF
Peer valuation
Valuation summary
7.3
Turboatom
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PSRFORMANCE - chart
MARKET
INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES -
table
KEY RATIO - table
Output Dynamics - chart
Demand
Key
markets
Competition
CIS monopoly in low speed turbines
After-market business
2007 order book
Sales forecasts
Financial
notes
Privatization?
Valuation
DCF
Peer valuation
Valuation summary
8. Small caps - companies profiles
8.1
Poltava Turbomechanical Plant
Peer valuation
8.2 Constar
Peer
valuation
8.3 Sumy Nasosenergomash
Peer valuation
8.4
Rivne High-Voltage Insulator Plant
Peer valuation
CHARTS
Sector performance, YTD
Market
SMASH: Valuation results, USD
TATM:
Valuation results, USD
ZATR: Valuation results, USD
ROVA: Valuation
results
SNEM: Valuation results
KNST: Valuation results
PTMZ:
Valuation results
Sumy Frunze - Stock performance
Sumy Frunze -
Spread, %
Sumy Frunze - Monthly trading volumes, mln
Zaporizhtransformator - Stock performance
Zaporizhtransformator - Spread,
%
Zaporizhtransformator - Monthly trading volumes, mln
Turboatom -
Stock performance
Turboatom - Spread, %
Turboatom - Monthly trading
volumes, mln
Rivne High-Voltage Equipment - Stock performance
Rivne
High-Voltage Equipment - Spread, %
Rivne High-Voltage Equipment - Monthly
trading volumes, mln
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Stock performance
Sumy
Nasosenergomash - Spread, %
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Monthly trading
volumes, mln
Poltava Turbomechanical -Stock performance
Poltava
Turbomechanical -Spread, %
Poltava Turbomechanical -Monthly trading
volumes, mln
Ukrainian power engineering in the energy consumption
chain
Sales destinations, 2006 - Sumy Frunze
Sales destinations, 2006
- Zaporizhtransformator
Sales destinations, 2006 - Turboatom
Sales
destinations, 2006 - Rivne High-Voltage Equipment plant
Sales
destinations, 2006 - Sumy Nasosenergomash
Sales destinations, 2006 -
Poltava Turbomechanical
Sales destinations, 2006 - Kryviy Rih Turbine
Plant Constar
Suppliers of energy machinery, by group of origin
Global
market share
Growth in energy delivered to end users, % 2004-2030
Electricity companies, Naftogaz and Energoatom investments, USD bln
Incremental electrical capacity in Ukraine, MW
RAO UES, Gazprom and
RosEnergoAtom investments, USD bln
Russia turbine needs and suppliers
Global investments into electricity transmission & distribution, USD mln
Annual investments for upgrading distribution networks
CIS transformer
producers by installed capacity, GVA
Zaporizhtransformator' s capacity,
GVA
Sales destinations, USD mln
Financial performance
Operating
profit breakdown by peer, 2006
Return on Invested Capital
Operating
model summary, USD mln
Valuation results, USD
Sales structure in 2006,
%
Global natural gas primary demand, bcm
World proven reserves of
natural gas in 2004, tcm
Sumy Frunze' s estimated production growth for
different types of products
Common size financials, 2006
SG&A/Sales,
2006
Return on invested capital, % 2006
Operating model summary, USD
mln
Valuation results, USD
Sales structure in 2006, %
Russian
electricity production forecasts, GWh
Electricity production forecasts,
GWh
Main NPP turbine producers (by installed capacity), %
Map of
Turboatom' s supplied turbines
Common size financials, 2006
EBITDA
margins, 2006
Return on invested capital, % 2006
Shareholder
structure, 2006
Operating model summary, USD mln
Valuation results,
USD
TABLES
Market multiples
Snapshot of key
data
Grigorishyn' s (Energy Standard) assets structure
Possible Energy
Standard holding
DCF output, UAH mln, as of October 9
Sensitivity
analysis
Peer summary, USD mln
Peer multiples
Summary: Competitors
by type of product
Sumy Frunze capacity and utilization, 2006
DCF
output, UAH mln, as of October 9
Sensitivity analysis
Peer summary,
USD mln
Peer multiples
Turboatom' s revenues from projects, USD mln
DCF output, UAH mln, as of October 9
Sensitivity analysis
Peer
summary, USD mln
Peer multiples
Poltava Turbomechanical Plant - Peer
summary, USD mln
Poltava Turbomechanical Plant - Peer multiples
Constar - Peer summary, USD mln
Constar - Peer multiples
Sumy
Nasosenergomash - Peer summary, USD mln
Sumy Nasosenergomash - Peer
multiples
Rivne High-Voltage Insulator Plant - Peer summary, USD mln
Rivne High-Voltage Insulator Plant - Peer multiples
